============================================================================== RACE: Carlisle ? · 2026-05-18 British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Good · Flat · Turf ============================================================================== Status FINISHED ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. CROWNBREAKER (IRE) (#2 · Σ 69.0) 2yo F · Draw 1 Connections Jockey Rowan Scott Trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy Owner Amo Racing Limited Pedigree Sire Minzaal (IRE) Dam Swirral Edge (GB) Damsire Hellvelyn Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 2.25 (Bet365) 17:00 2.20 (Bet365) 19:20 2.25 (Bet365) 20:22 2.38 (Bet365) 21:01 2.25 (Bet365) 21:40 2.38 (Bet365) 22:01 2.25 (Bet365) 00:31 2.38 (Bet365) 09:11 2.63 (Bet365) 09:16 2.75 (Bet365) 09:22 2.63 (Bet365) 09:53 2.75 (Bet365) 10:19 2.63 (Bet365) 10:29 2.75 (Bet365) 10:48 2.88 (Unibet) 12:06 3.00 (Bet365) 12:12 2.88 (Bet365) 12:29 3.00 (Bet365) 12:59 2.88 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 8.0/10 Only ranked horse with RPR 104 / TS 103 against three unraced rivals — a sizeable rating gap in a Class 2 novice. Form 7.0/10 Debut third with solid figures is the best form line in the race; three rivals have no form at all. Connections 8.0/10 Trainer Elo 1742 and 14d strike 19% (5 from 26) is the hottest yard here; Rowan Scott a competent if unspectacular partner. Fitness 9.0/10 Race-fit having run 15 days ago, the ideal window after a debut effort. Trip 7.0/10 Minzaal colt out of a Hellvelyn mare — sharp 5f pedigree and already proven competitive at the trip. Pace 7.0/10 Showed enough pace on debut to finish third; should travel comfortably in a small-field pedestrian gallop. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 1 at Carlisle 5f is fine in a four-runner field; no strong bias either way. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear, no wind ops mentioned — neutral. Weight 5.0/10 Level weights 128lb across the field — non-handicap default. Value 7.0/10 Public should latch on but experience-vs-debutants edges are often underestimated in small fields. Σ Summary 69.0/100 Form edge plus fitness plus a hot yard makes this the strongest profile by a wide margin. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1520.4 (1 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1608.6 (3836 runs, 316 wins, 8.2%) Trainer 1741.7 (1652 runs, 236 wins, 14.3%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 126r 11w 9% A/E 0.87 (fair) Jockey × trainer 50r 11w 22% A/E 1.31 (value) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 3r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 2 7r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 2 3r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 2 5r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Past form (last 2 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 2/4 5/4F 10.00L — 104 Rowan Scott Prominent - went second over 1f out - soon no chance with winner(op 2/1) 2026-05-03 Newmarket 5f Good To F Cla 3/8 6/1 0.30L — 92 David Egan In touch with leaders - headway on far side of group and pressed leaders over 1f out - no extra towards finish(op 7/1 tchd 11/2 and tchd 15/2) Comment Prominent - went second over 1f out - soon no chance with winner(op 2/1) Finishing result Position 2 SP 5/4F (2.250) Beaten (L) 10.00 Total beaten 10.00 In-running comment Prominent - went second over 1f out - soon no chance with winner(op 2/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2. WILD BLOSSOM (IRE) (#4 · Σ 54.0) 2yo F · Draw 3 Connections Jockey James Doyle Trainer K R Burke Owner Wathnan Racing Pedigree Sire Mehmas (IRE) Dam Duchess Rose (IRE) Damsire Dream Ahead Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 2.50 (Bet365) 16:01 2.88 (CopyBet) 16:21 2.75 (William Hill) 09:11 3.00 (Bet365) 11:39 3.25 (Bet365) 11:58 3.50 (Midnite) 12:29 3.25 (Bet365) 12:59 3.00 (Unibet) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 Unrated debutant; cannot be placed on figures, default mid. Form 4.0/10 No form to assess. Connections 8.0/10 Burke trainer Elo 1676 and James Doyle booking is a strong combination for an unraced 2yo, even if the 14d strike is modest. Fitness 5.0/10 Debutant — fitness unknown; default mid. Trip 6.0/10 Mehmas progeny out of a Dream Ahead mare — bred for 5-6f speed. Pace 5.0/10 Running style unknown until the gates open. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 3 of 4 — neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear noted. Weight 5.0/10 Level weights — default. Value 5.0/10 Likely to be supported on Burke/Doyle alone, fair price rather than overlay. Σ Summary 54.0/100 Best of the debutants on connections and pedigree, but cannot rate above mid without a public form line. Verdict Outsider ELO Jockey 1588.6 (6501 runs, 1205 wins, 18.5%) Trainer 1675.9 (7008 runs, 1051 wins, 15.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 13r 2w 15% A/E 0.70 (negative) Jockey × trainer 54r 13w 24% A/E 1.14 (value) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 368r 71w 19% A/E 1.11 (value) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 2 447r 47w 11% A/E 0.89 (fair) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 2 1r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 2 58r 2w 3% A/E 0.28 (negative) Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 1/4 15/8 won — — James Doyle Pressed leader - led and pushed along under 2f out - clear when ridden inside final furlong - ran on well - impressive(op 85/40 tchd 13/8 and tchd 9/4) Comment Pressed leader - led and pushed along under 2f out - clear when ridden inside final furlong - ran on well - impressive(op 85/40 tchd 13/8 and tchd 9/4) Finishing result Position 1 SP 15/8 (2.880) Beaten (L) 0.00 Total beaten 0.00 In-running comment Pressed leader - led and pushed along under 2f out - clear when ridden inside final furlong - ran on well - impressive(op 85/40 tchd 13/8 and tchd 9/4) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3. MISS HAVISHAM (IRE) (#3 · Σ 53.0) 2yo F · Draw 2 Connections Jockey Kevin Stott Trainer Kevin Ryan Owner Exors Of The Late Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Pedigree Sire Starspangledbanner (AUS) Dam Reyaadah (GB) Damsire Tamayuz Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 6.00 (Bet365) 16:01 6.50 (William Hill) 09:11 4.00 (William Hill) 09:36 3.75 (Bet365) 10:44 3.50 (Bet365) 12:06 3.25 (William Hill) 12:31 3.00 (Bet365) 12:37 3.25 (Spreadex) 12:45 3.00 (Bet365) 12:51 3.25 (Betfred) 12:59 3.50 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 Unrated debutant in Class 2 — default mid. Form 4.0/10 No public form. Connections 7.0/10 Ryan/Stott a long-standing 2yo combination; trainer Elo 1642 and 10% 14d strike is solid if not red-hot. Fitness 5.0/10 Debut — unknown. Trip 6.0/10 Starspangledbanner over a Tamayuz mare = classic sharp 2yo 5f profile. Pace 5.0/10 Style unknown. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 2 — fine. Equipment 5.0/10 No equipment notes. Weight 5.0/10 Level weights. Value 5.0/10 Priced on connections alone; no edge either way. Σ Summary 53.0/100 Capable yard and pedigree but nothing on the page beats Crownbreaker's experience. Verdict Outsider ELO Jockey 1625.9 (5003 runs, 685 wins, 13.7%) Trainer 1642.3 (6760 runs, 878 wins, 13.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 151r 25w 17% A/E 0.99 (fair) Jockey × trainer 1554r 243w 16% A/E 0.95 (fair) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 414r 59w 14% A/E 0.96 (fair) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 2 425r 36w 8% A/E 0.75 (negative) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 2 1r 1w 100% A/E 34.00 (value) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 2 84r 11w 13% A/E 1.18 (value) Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 3/4 7/2 4.25L — — Kevin Stott Took keen hold - led - headed under 2f out - dropped to last over 1f out - went modest third towards finish(op 2/1 tchd 4/1) Comment Took keen hold - led - headed under 2f out - dropped to last over 1f out - went modest third towards finish(op 2/1 tchd 4/1) Finishing result Position 3 SP 7/2 (4.500) Beaten (L) 4.25 Total beaten 14.25 In-running comment Took keen hold - led - headed under 2f out - dropped to last over 1f out - went modest third towards finish(op 2/1 tchd 4/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4. CALEF (IRE) (#1 · Σ 50.0) 2yo F · Draw 4 Connections Jockey Daniel Tudhope Trainer David O'Meara Owner Akela Thoroughbreds Limited Pedigree Sire Blue Point (IRE) Dam Ellthea (IRE) Damsire Kodiac Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 10.00 (Bet365) 19:20 12.00 (William Hill) 20:01 15.00 (Coral) 20:22 17.00 (Coral) 00:31 19.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 12.00 (BetTom) 09:16 11.00 (Bet365) 10:09 10.00 (Bet365) 11:58 9.50 (Bet365) 12:02 10.00 (Bet365) 12:51 11.00 (Bet365) 12:54 12.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 Unrated debutant — default. Form 4.0/10 No form. Connections 5.0/10 Tudhope is a class act but O'Meara is in cold form (4% 14d, RTF 22) and is more associated with older handicappers than juveniles. Fitness 5.0/10 Debut — unknown fitness. Trip 6.0/10 Blue Point colt out of a Kodiac-line mare — bred for early speed at 5f. Pace 5.0/10 Style unknown. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 4 — fine in a four-runner field. Equipment 5.0/10 No equipment notes. Weight 5.0/10 Level weights. Value 4.0/10 Likely under-bet given Tudhope but trainer's cold spell and lack of 2yo profile cap the upside. Σ Summary 50.0/100 Pedigree and jockey just about hold the rating up but the yard's strike rate and 2yo profile leave this the most exposed of the debutants. Verdict Outsider ELO Jockey 1637.4 (7624 runs, 1238 wins, 16.2%) Trainer 1579.9 (10045 runs, 1346 wins, 13.4%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 267r 35w 13% A/E 0.76 (negative) Jockey × trainer 4696r 718w 15% A/E 0.90 (fair) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 210r 22w 10% A/E 0.71 (negative) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 2 228r 30w 13% A/E 0.78 (negative) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 2 no data Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 2 279r 24w 9% A/E 0.79 (negative) Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 4/4 11/1 2.75L — — Daniel Tudhope Raced in last - headway and disputing second over 1f out - soon outpaced - weakened inside final furlong - lost third towards finish(op 10/1) Comment Raced in last - headway and disputing second over 1f out - soon outpaced - weakened inside final furlong - lost third towards finish(op 10/1) Finishing result Position 4 SP 11/1 (12.000) Beaten (L) 2.75 Total beaten 17.00 In-running comment Raced in last - headway and disputing second over 1f out - soon outpaced - weakened inside final furlong - lost third towards finish(op 10/1) ============================================================================== HEAD-TO-HEAD (1 past meetings between today's runners) ============================================================================== 2026-05-18 · Carlisle · 5f · Class 2 · Good British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) 1 Wild Blossom (IRE) won SP 15/8 2 Crownbreaker (IRE) 10.00L SP 5/4F 3 Miss Havisham (IRE) 4.25L SP 7/2 4 Calef (IRE) 2.75L SP 11/1 ============================================================================== AI RACE VERDICT ============================================================================== Pace scenario: Likely modest gallop over Carlisle's stiff 5f with several debutants. Experience should help Crownbreaker travel into it best. Narrative: Small four-runner novice with only Crownbreaker holding form figures — RPR 104 from a debut third 15 days ago for a hot Philippart De Foy stable. The other three are all unraced fillies making their debuts, so they are judged on connections, pedigree and trainer 2yo profile. Crownbreaker is the clear form pick; the debutants of Burke (Doyle) and Ryan (Stott) are the main dangers, while O'Meara's filly looks the outsider on a cold stable run. Recommended: Crownbreaker Only runner with public form (RPR 104, TS 103 from a debut third), drawn one, hot Philippart De Foy yard (19% 14d, RTF 50, trainer Elo 1742). Experience edge over three debutants in a small field is decisive. Alternative: Wild Blossom K R Burke 2yo debutants are always respected, James Doyle booked, trainer Elo 1676 and RTF 50 — the most likely danger if Crownbreaker fails to improve. ============================================================================== Generated 2026-05-19 13:36 UTC · HorseRacingValue.com · race rac_11944049