============================================================================== RACE: Carlisle ? · 2026-05-18 racingtv.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Soft · Flat · Turf ============================================================================== Status FINISHED ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. LUNAR MELODY (GB) (#10 · Σ 68.0) 3yo F · Draw 2 Connections Jockey James Doyle Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey Owner Wathnan Racing Pedigree Sire Havana Grey (GB) Dam Little Clarinet (IRE) Damsire Requinto Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 2.25 (Bet365) 16:01 2.30 (CopyBet) 17:21 2.25 (Bet365) 09:11 2.00 (Bet365) 09:34 2.10 (Unibet) 09:40 2.00 (Bet365) 12:37 2.10 (Bet365) 14:54 2.20 (Betfred) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 9.0/10 RPR 78 the best in race by 7lb — clear class signal. Form 7.0/10 Form 5-2: finished second on most recent start, clear improvement from debut 5th. Connections 7.0/10 Fahey yard 13% 14d (45 runners), James Doyle jockey Elo 1589 with 18% strike — strong combo. Fitness 9.0/10 23 days since last run — bang in the sweet spot. Trip 7.0/10 Havana Grey x Requinto suits 6f-7f; placed at similar trip already. Pace 6.0/10 Tactically versatile based on placings. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 2 — workable inside draw at Carlisle 6f195y. Equipment 5.0/10 No equipment change. Weight 5.0/10 125lb with filly allowance — usual concession. Value 7.0/10 Form and class profile suggest she should be favourite and is likely correctly priced. Σ Summary 68.0/100 Clear class edge with a winning-look form trajectory and quality booking. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1527.4 (2 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1588.6 (6501 runs, 1205 wins, 18.5%) Trainer 1637.0 (105 runs, 11 wins, 10.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 13r 2w 15% A/E 0.70 (negative) Jockey × trainer no data Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle no data Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 781r 105w 13% A/E 0.86 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 4r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 41r 4w 10% A/E 0.83 (negative) Past form (last 3 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 5/11 13/8F 0.50L — 82 James Doyle Prominent - switched left towards near side 2f out - weakened and lost two places final 110yds(op 11/10) 2026-04-25 Doncaster 7f Good To F Cla 2/10 11/2 0.50L — 74 Daniel Tudhope Prominent - going easily when led over 1f out - soon hung left - ridden and headed inside final furlong - kept on(op 4/1) 2025-09-01 Carlisle 6f Good Cla 5/10 7/2 1.25L — 66 Oisin Orr Slowly into stride - in rear on outer - edged left over 1f out - no extra inside final 110yds(op 11/4 tchd 9/2) Comment Prominent - switched left towards near side 2f out - weakened and lost two places final 110yds(op 11/10) Finishing result Position 5 SP 13/8F (2.620) Beaten (L) 0.50 Total beaten 5.00 In-running comment Prominent - switched left towards near side 2f out - weakened and lost two places final 110yds(op 11/10) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2. WEZZEER (IRE) (#2 · Σ 63.0) 3yo C · Draw 11 Connections Jockey Ray Dawson Trainer Roger Varian Owner Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum Pedigree Sire Sioux Nation (USA) Dam Westfalica (GER) Damsire Areion Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 2.50 (Bet365) 16:01 2.88 (CopyBet) 16:21 2.75 (Coral) 17:21 3.00 (William Hill) 00:31 3.13 (Bet Victor) 09:11 3.50 (Bet365) 09:40 3.75 (Bet365) 09:48 4.00 (Betfred) 10:31 4.33 (Betfred) 10:54 4.50 (Betfred) 11:58 4.33 (William Hill) 13:37 4.00 (William Hill) 14:08 4.33 (Betfred) 14:39 4.00 (Bet365) 14:54 5.00 (Spreadex) 14:57 4.50 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 RPR 64 mid-pack but Varian-trained 3yos often defy ratings on improvement curve. Form 8.0/10 Form 31 — third then a win, clearly progressive. Connections 8.0/10 Varian trainer Elo 1724, 18% 14d strike; Dawson a competent if unspectacular partner. Fitness 9.0/10 19 days off — bang in the ideal window after a winning effort. Trip 6.0/10 Sioux Nation progeny handle 6f-7f; trip looks fine. Pace 5.0/10 No strong style indicator, likely tracking pace. Draw 4.0/10 Stall 11 widest in 11-runner field at Carlisle 7f-ish trip is unhelpful. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear change, no medical notes. Weight 6.0/10 137lb, 7lb more than 3yo allowance peers — but a winner is rated higher. Value 7.0/10 Last-time winner from Varian yard usually carries genuine prospects. Σ Summary 63.0/100 Powerful yard + winning form profile makes this the clearest danger to the favourite. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1543.5 (2 runs, 1 wins, 50.0%) Jockey 1543.6 (2900 runs, 317 wins, 10.9%) Trainer 1723.5 (6000 runs, 1145 wins, 19.1%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle no data Jockey × trainer 350r 63w 18% A/E 0.78 (negative) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 25r 5w 20% A/E 0.56 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 383r 45w 12% A/E 0.77 (negative) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 2r 1w 50% A/E 1.28 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 45r 5w 11% A/E 0.85 (fair) Past form (last 3 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 2/11 7/2 0.75L — 76 Ray Dawson Raced in second throughout - edged left 1f out - challenging final 110yds - kept on(op 3/1) 2026-04-29 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/9 4/6F won — 72 Ray Dawson Took keen hold - prominent - ridden over 1f out - led final 110yds - kept on well(Mkt1: op 4/7 tchd 8/11; Mkt2 tchd 8/13) 2026-04-06 Kempton (AW) 6f Standard Cla 3/12 9/2 2.50L — 63 Robbie Downey Midfield - some headway then switched left and not clear run over 1f out - switched right and ran on inside final furlong(op 5/1) Comment Raced in second throughout - edged left 1f out - challenging final 110yds - kept on(op 3/1) Finishing result Position 2 SP 7/2 (4.500) Beaten (L) 0.75 Total beaten 0.75 In-running comment Raced in second throughout - edged left 1f out - challenging final 110yds - kept on(op 3/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3. BEE FARMER (GB) (#4 · Σ 56.0) 3yo G · Draw 8 Connections Jockey Kevin Stott Trainer Edward Bethell Owner Woodhurst Withernsea S Ryan Pedigree Sire Mohaather (GB) Dam Rayaheen (GB) Damsire Nayef Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 11.00 (Bet365) 09:11 21.00 (Bet Victor) 10:31 15.00 (Bet365) 10:46 13.00 (Bet365) 14:57 12.00 (Unibet) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 Bethell debutant booking quality jockey suggests yard expects a forward show. Form 5.0/10 Unraced. Connections 7.0/10 Stott is a Group-level rider, Bethell yard typically a 16% operation but currently flat 4% 14d. Fitness 5.0/10 Debutant — gallop-fit unknown but big yards usually ready. Trip 6.0/10 Mohaather x Nayef mating screams middle-distance pedigree; 6f195y likely too sharp ultimately. Pace 5.0/10 Unknown. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 8 central, neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear. Weight 5.0/10 Off level 130lb. Value 6.0/10 Stable cold spell may inflate price relative to true chance. Σ Summary 56.0/100 Decent unraced profile but trip and current yard form temper enthusiasm. Verdict Each-way ELO Jockey 1625.9 (5003 runs, 685 wins, 13.7%) Trainer 1711.5 (1338 runs, 217 wins, 16.2%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 151r 25w 17% A/E 0.99 (fair) Jockey × trainer 100r 15w 15% A/E 0.83 (negative) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 43r 9w 21% A/E 1.04 (fair) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 238r 26w 11% A/E 0.85 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 28r 3w 11% A/E 0.54 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 1148r 147w 13% A/E 0.94 (fair) Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 6/11 17/2 8.50L — — Kevin Stott Dwelt start - never better than midfield(op 11/1) Comment Dwelt start - never better than midfield(op 11/1) Finishing result Position 6 SP 17/2 (9.500) Beaten (L) 8.50 Total beaten 13.50 In-running comment Dwelt start - never better than midfield(op 11/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4. FREDDIE STEADY GO (GB) (#1 · Σ 55.0) 5yo G · Draw 1 · t Connections Jockey Cam Hardie Trainer Susan Corbett Owner Castle View A Bell S Oliver M Severs Pedigree Sire Frontiersman (GB) Dam Bahrikate (GB) Damsire Bahri Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 67.00 (Bet365) 16:01 71.00 (7Bet) 09:11 201.00 (Bet Victor) 09:22 251.00 (Bet Victor) 11:58 201.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 71 ranks 2nd in field but well behind Lunar Melody's 78. Form 3.0/10 Form 77 — two finishes well beaten on recent starts. Connections 6.0/10 Corbett yard hot at 33% 14d, RTF 80 strong, but Hardie a workmanlike 5% rider. Fitness 8.0/10 11 days since last run, in the ideal 14-28d window. Trip 6.0/10 Frontiersman x Bahri damsire suggests stamina is fine at 6f195y. Pace 5.0/10 No standout style note; likely mid-division. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 1 in 11-runner 6f195y Carlisle is neutral to slightly negative. Equipment 7.0/10 Tongue-tie retained, post-wind-surgery comeback can spark improvement. Weight 4.0/10 Carrying 141lb, 11lb more than the 3yo brigade. Value 5.0/10 Top RPR for older horse but exposed; fair price likely. Σ Summary 55.0/100 Best RPR among the exposed runners but giving weight and his form lacks substance. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1489.4 (6 runs, 1 wins, 16.7%) Jockey 1507.9 (7327 runs, 396 wins, 5.4%) Trainer 1537.9 (1161 runs, 97 wins, 8.4%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 83r 3w 4% A/E 0.58 (negative) Jockey × trainer 16r 1w 6% A/E 0.82 (negative) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 118r 8w 7% A/E 0.92 (fair) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 97r 16w 16% A/E 1.05 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 4r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 498r 44w 9% A/E 0.67 (negative) Past form (last 7 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 1/11 150/1 won — 71 Cam Hardie Made all - ridden over 1f out - edged right inside final furlong - faced challenge final 110yds - kept on well(op 200/1) 2026-05-07 Redcar 1m Good Cla 7/10 150/1 0.30L — 61 Harry Russell Pressed leader - prominent over 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 125/1) 2026-04-26 Wetherby 1m Good To F Cla 7/8 100/1 0.30L — 63 Harry Russell Took keen hold - towards rear - headway over 4f out - hung right and weakened over 1f out (jockey said gelding hung right-handed throughout)(op 80/1 tchd 66/1) 2026-01-15 Newcastle 2m1f Good To S Cla 9/11 6/1 43.00L — 19 Conor Rabbitt Didn't jump well - took keen hold - in touch with leaders - led and went clear before 4th - mistake and much reduced lead 5th - headed 4 out - lost ground quickly before 3 out - tailed off (jockey said gelding ran too free)(op 9/1) 2025-10-11 Hexham 2m Good Cla 3/5 3/1 0.50L — 99 Nathan Moscrop Held up in last - headway and challenging inside final furlong - no extra towards finish(tchd 5/2) 2025-05-10 Haydock 1m7½f Good Cla 3/7 11/1 1.50L — 103 Nathan Moscrop Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - steady headway and pressed leaders over 2f out - no extra inside final 110yds(op 9/1 tchd 8/1) 2025-04-05 Newcastle 2m1f Good Cla 1/11 3/1F won — 89 Nathan Moscrop Held up in rear - smooth headway and in touch with leaders 3f out - switched left and went third 2f out - led going easily 1f out - pushed out inside final furlong - readily(op 11/4 tchd 10/3) Comment Made all - ridden over 1f out - edged right inside final furlong - faced challenge final 110yds - kept on well(op 200/1) Finishing result Position 1 SP 150/1 (151.000) Beaten (L) 0.00 Total beaten 0.00 In-running comment Made all - ridden over 1f out - edged right inside final furlong - faced challenge final 110yds - kept on well(op 200/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5. BLUE BOY JUNIOR (IRE) (#5 · Σ 55.0) 3yo G · Draw 5 Connections Jockey David Nolan Trainer David & Nicola Barron Owner Clive And Laura Washbourn Pedigree Sire Space Blues (IRE) Dam Homecoming (IRE) Damsire Zoffany Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 8.00 (Bet365) 17:21 8.50 (Bet365) 17:41 9.00 (Midnite) 00:31 9.50 (Midnite) 09:11 9.00 (Bet365) 09:34 8.50 (Bet365) 13:02 8.00 (Bet365) 14:04 8.50 (Unibet) 14:16 8.00 (Bet365) 14:37 7.50 (Bet365) 14:45 7.00 (BetTom) 14:54 6.50 (Bet Victor) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 69 ranks third in field, close to top tier. Form 5.0/10 Form '4' — one mid-pack finish only. Connections 5.0/10 Barron trainer Elo 1657 strong long-term but 0% 14d strike rate cold; Nolan 11% rider. Fitness 7.0/10 30 days off — middle of the sweet spot. Trip 6.0/10 Space Blues progeny typically thrive 6f-7f; trip ideal. Pace 5.0/10 Unclear style after one debut run. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 5 central — neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear. Weight 5.0/10 Off level 130lb. Value 5.0/10 Modest improver — fairly priced. Σ Summary 55.0/100 Reasonable rating but yard cold and form light. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1517.1 (1 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1573.1 (4163 runs, 449 wins, 10.8%) Trainer 1657.3 (950 runs, 98 wins, 10.3%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 164r 14w 9% A/E 0.78 (negative) Jockey × trainer 22r 2w 9% A/E 0.70 (negative) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 28r 5w 18% A/E 1.46 (value) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 72r 6w 8% A/E 0.57 (negative) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 1r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 214r 30w 14% A/E 0.98 (fair) Past form (last 2 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 4/11 100/30 0.50L — 73 David Nolan Midfield - headway 2f out - ran on final furlong - went fourth towards finish(op 11/2) 2026-04-18 Thirsk 7f Good Cla 4/14 6/1 3.25L — 70 David Nolan In touch with leaders - outpaced over 2f out - soon edged right - lost position inside final furlong - weakened gradually final 110yds(op 25/1 tchd 11/2) Comment Midfield - headway 2f out - ran on final furlong - went fourth towards finish(op 11/2) Finishing result Position 4 SP 100/30 (4.330) Beaten (L) 0.50 Total beaten 4.50 In-running comment Midfield - headway 2f out - ran on final furlong - went fourth towards finish(op 11/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6. DARK SOVEREIGN (IRE) (#6 · Σ 53.0) 3yo G · Draw 10 Connections Jockey Callum Rodriguez Trainer Ralph Beckett Owner Valmont Pedigree Sire Dark Angel (IRE) Dam Mulkeyya (IRE) Damsire Mawatheeq Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 9.00 (Bet365) 17:21 6.50 (BetTom) 17:41 6.00 (Bet365) 09:11 5.00 (Bet365) 09:46 4.50 (Bet365) 13:35 5.00 (Bet365) 14:04 4.50 (Bet365) 14:37 5.00 (Bet365) 14:39 5.50 (Bet365) 14:45 5.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 7.0/10 TS 72 is the best speed figure in the field; Beckett yard handles novices well. Form 4.0/10 Form 45- — two unplaced finishes last campaign. Connections 8.0/10 Beckett trainer Elo 1719, 17% 14d strike; Rodriguez jockey Elo 1691 strong combo. Fitness 2.0/10 262 days off — well outside any optimal recovery window. Trip 6.0/10 Dark Angel x Mawatheeq breeding fine for 6f-7f. Pace 5.0/10 Unspecified style. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 10 wide — slightly negative. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear changes noted. Weight 5.0/10 Off level 130lb. Value 6.0/10 Layoff likely sees market underrate genuine ability. Σ Summary 53.0/100 Best speed figure and top connections, but the 262-day layoff is the deal-breaker. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1505.6 (2 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1691.3 (3720 runs, 552 wins, 14.8%) Trainer 1718.6 (5769 runs, 1049 wins, 18.2%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 168r 26w 15% A/E 0.98 (fair) Jockey × trainer 22r 4w 18% A/E 0.72 (negative) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 32r 10w 31% A/E 0.92 (fair) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 3908r 456w 12% A/E 0.83 (negative) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 3r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 32r 1w 3% A/E 0.55 (negative) Past form (last 3 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 3/11 100/30 3.25L — 75 Callum Rodriguez In touch with leaders - carried left towards near side 2f out - kept on and went third inside final 110yds(op 4/1) 2025-08-29 Sandown 7f Soft Cla 5/10 7/2 1.25L — 80 Hector Crouch Took keen hold - pressed leader - no extra inside final furlong(op 13/2) 2025-08-16 Doncaster 7f Good To F Cla 4/7 11/2 0.75L — 69 P J McDonald Held up in rear - some headway on near side of group 2f out - outpaced over 1f out - rallied and kept on final 110yds - never dangerous(tchd 5/1) Comment In touch with leaders - carried left towards near side 2f out - kept on and went third inside final 110yds(op 4/1) Finishing result Position 3 SP 100/30 (4.330) Beaten (L) 3.25 Total beaten 4.00 In-running comment In touch with leaders - carried left towards near side 2f out - kept on and went third inside final 110yds(op 4/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7. ALBEMAGIC (GB) (#3 · Σ 49.0) 3yo G · Draw 6 Connections Jockey P J McDonald Trainer Steph Hollinshead Owner Ray Bailey Pedigree Sire Al Kazeem (GB) Dam Magic Destiny (GB) Damsire Dubai Destination Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 34.00 (Bet365) 16:01 36.00 (7Bet) 16:21 41.00 (BetWright) 00:31 51.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 126.00 (Betfred) 09:22 151.00 (Bet Victor) 11:13 201.00 (Midnite) 11:27 151.00 (Unibet) 11:31 201.00 (Midnite) 11:37 151.00 (Unibet) 11:39 201.00 (Midnite) 12:02 151.00 (Unibet) 13:28 201.00 (Midnite) 13:35 151.00 (Unibet) 13:37 201.00 (Midnite) 13:47 151.00 (Unibet) 14:45 126.00 (Bet365) 14:54 101.00 (Coral) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 4.0/10 No RPR; placeholder for debutant from a smaller operation. Form 5.0/10 Unraced — no form to assess either way. Connections 5.0/10 Hollinshead trainer Elo 1478 modest; McDonald solid partner. Fitness 5.0/10 Debutant — fitness from gallops unknown. Trip 5.0/10 Al Kazeem x Dubai Destination mix suggests middle-distance leanings; 6f195y borderline. Pace 5.0/10 Unknown style on debut. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 6 — central, neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No equipment. Weight 5.0/10 Off level weights at 130lb. Value 4.0/10 Small-yard debutants rarely overlooked enough to offer real value. Σ Summary 49.0/100 Speculative unraced runner from a yard without big debut numbers. Verdict Outsider ELO Jockey 1572.7 (7964 runs, 954 wins, 12.0%) Trainer 1478.3 (1076 runs, 73 wins, 6.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 363r 47w 13% A/E 0.95 (fair) Jockey × trainer 12r 1w 8% A/E 0.78 (negative) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 23r 6w 26% A/E 2.95 (value) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 218r 24w 11% A/E 0.84 (negative) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 33r 4w 12% A/E 0.80 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 889r 115w 13% A/E 0.96 (fair) Past form (last 1 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 7/11 33/1 8.00L — — P J McDonald Dwelt start - in rear - some headway 2f out(op 100/1) Comment Dwelt start - in rear - some headway 2f out(op 100/1) Finishing result Position 7 SP 33/1 (34.000) Beaten (L) 8.00 Total beaten 21.50 In-running comment Dwelt start - in rear - some headway 2f out(op 100/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 8. GOLDEN HARVEST (GB) (#7 · Σ 43.0) 3yo G · Draw 4 Connections Jockey Dougie Costello Trainer Steph Hollinshead Owner M Johnson Pedigree Sire Washington DC (IRE) Dam Big Sky (GB) Damsire Fastnet Rock Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 67.00 (Bet365) 16:01 81.00 (William Hill) 00:31 101.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 201.00 (Bet365) 09:22 251.00 (Bet Victor) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 2.0/10 No RPR after a non-finish on debut. Form 2.0/10 Form 0 — finished unplaced and beyond reckoning. Connections 4.0/10 Hollinshead trainer Elo 1478; Costello a journeyman 8% rider. Fitness 6.0/10 35 days off — within reasonable range. Trip 5.0/10 Washington DC progeny tend to want shorter; 6f195y stretches. Pace 5.0/10 Unknown reliable style. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 4 central — fine. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear. Weight 5.0/10 Off level 130lb. Value 3.0/10 No evidence to support overlay. Σ Summary 43.0/100 Almost nothing to recommend other than fitness from recent run. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1464.6 (1 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1532.1 (4658 runs, 359 wins, 7.7%) Trainer 1478.3 (1076 runs, 73 wins, 6.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 212r 18w 8% A/E 0.78 (negative) Jockey × trainer 161r 17w 11% A/E 1.09 (value) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 23r 6w 26% A/E 2.95 (value) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 100r 7w 7% A/E 0.61 (negative) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 5r 3w 60% A/E 4.58 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 1250r 133w 11% A/E 0.85 (fair) Past form (last 2 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 9/11 300/1 6.00L — — Dougie Costello In rear throughout (jockey said gelding ran too free)(op 250/1) 2026-04-13 Leicester 7f Good Cla 12/12 200/1 6.50L — — David Allan Slowly away - in rear - headway when stumbled badly over 2f out - soon dropped to rear and eased Comment In rear throughout (jockey said gelding ran too free)(op 250/1) Finishing result Position 9 SP 300/1 (301.000) Beaten (L) 6.00 Total beaten 29.00 In-running comment In rear throughout (jockey said gelding ran too free)(op 250/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9. ROYAL SIZZLER (GB) (#11 · Σ 43.0) 3yo F · Draw 9 · h Connections Jockey Mark Winn Trainer Michael Dods Owner Ron Watts Pedigree Sire Too Darn Hot (GB) Dam Queen Kahlua (GB) Damsire Kingman Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 67.00 (Bet365) 16:01 81.00 (William Hill) 00:31 101.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 201.00 (William Hill) 09:22 251.00 (Bet Victor) 12:39 151.00 (Bet Victor) 13:02 101.00 (Bet365) 13:43 126.00 (Bet365) 14:54 151.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 3.0/10 RPR 57 lowest among rated runners. Form 3.0/10 Form 50- — pulled up and a fifth last campaign. Connections 4.0/10 Dods trainer Elo 1581 but cold at 4% 14d; Winn 11% rider. Fitness 3.0/10 172 days off — significant absence. Trip 5.0/10 Too Darn Hot x Kingman — bred to handle 6f-7f easily. Pace 5.0/10 Unknown. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 9 — mid-wide, neutral. Equipment 6.0/10 Hood retained from previous campaign. Weight 5.0/10 125lb with filly allowance, level otherwise. Value 3.0/10 Layoff plus low rating offers no edge. Σ Summary 43.0/100 Filly allowance and decent pedigree not enough to offset weak yard form and absence. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1468.5 (2 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1581.5 (1286 runs, 136 wins, 10.6%) Trainer 1580.7 (5160 runs, 596 wins, 11.6%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 41r 7w 17% A/E 1.37 (value) Jockey × trainer 18r 4w 22% A/E 2.48 (value) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 643r 58w 9% A/E 0.70 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 457r 72w 16% A/E 0.92 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 no data Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 135r 13w 10% A/E 0.65 (negative) Past form (last 3 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 10/11 150/1 6.50L — 61 Mark Winn Prominent - weakened over 2f out(op 125/1) 2025-11-27 Newcastle (AW 1m Standard Cla 11/12 80/1 0.30L — 33 Sean Kirrane Midfield - weakened from over 2f out(op 50/1 tchd 100/1) 2025-10-27 Redcar 1m1f Good To S Cla 5/7 125/1 5.00L — 44 Sean Kirrane Dwelt start - in touch with leaders - dropped to midfield after 2f - weakened over 1f out(op 66/1 tchd 150/1) Comment Prominent - weakened over 2f out(op 125/1) Finishing result Position 10 SP 150/1 (151.000) Beaten (L) 6.50 Total beaten 35.50 In-running comment Prominent - weakened over 2f out(op 125/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10. GREAT PROFIT (IRE) (#8 · Σ 41.0) 3yo G · Draw 3 · h Connections Jockey Rhys Elliott Trainer Gary Harrison Owner Miss E Johnston Pedigree Sire Profitable (IRE) Dam Piccola Sissi (IRE) Damsire Footstepsinthesand Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 34.00 (Bet365) 16:01 41.00 (William Hill) 00:31 51.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 101.00 (Midnite) 14:16 126.00 (Midnite) 14:37 101.00 (Bet365) 14:45 126.00 (Midnite) 14:57 151.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 3.0/10 OFR 62, RPR 61 — bottom tier of field. Form 3.0/10 Form 764- — three unplaced finishes last campaign. Connections 3.0/10 Harrison trainer Elo 1458 weak; 5lb claimer Elliott aboard. Fitness 2.0/10 289 days off — extreme absence after modest form. Trip 5.0/10 Profitable progeny generally sprint-orientated; 6f195y near upper limit. Pace 5.0/10 Unknown. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 3 central — neutral. Equipment 6.0/10 Hood retained, has worn it before. Weight 5.0/10 Off level 130lb. Value 3.0/10 No edge. Σ Summary 41.0/100 Layoff plus weak underlying form puts him among the no-hopers. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1442.1 (3 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1464.7 (576 runs, 33 wins, 5.7%) Trainer 1457.9 (157 runs, 5 wins, 3.2%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 22r 1w 5% A/E 0.55 (negative) Jockey × trainer no data Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 11r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 590r 67w 11% A/E 0.93 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 10r 2w 20% A/E 1.49 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 402r 47w 12% A/E 0.85 (fair) Past form (last 4 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 8/11 200/1 1.50L 62 65 Rhys Elliott Midfield - weakened under 2f out(op 100/1) 2025-08-02 Hamilton 6f Good Cla 4/4 17/2 2.75L — 46 Barry McHugh Walked to post - held up in last - ran green and detached halfway - never on terms(op 13/2 tchd 11/2 and tchd 8/1) 2025-06-21 Redcar 5f Good To F Cla 6/7 15/2 0.20L — 62 Oisin Orr Taken down early - dwelt start - in rear throughout(op 11/2 tchd 4/1) 2025-06-04 Ripon 5f Good Cla 7/8 100/30 1.00L — 48 Oisin Orr Dwelt start - in rear and ran green throughout(op 4/1) Comment Midfield - weakened under 2f out(op 100/1) Finishing result Position 8 SP 200/1 (201.000) Beaten (L) 1.50 Total beaten 23.00 OR after 62 In-running comment Midfield - weakened under 2f out(op 100/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 11. TZARMAGGEDON (GB) (#9 · Σ 41.0) 3yo G · Draw 7 Connections Jockey Paul Mulrennan Trainer Bryan Smart Owner J R Dwyer And B Smart Pedigree Sire Sergei Prokofiev (CAN) Dam Armageddon (GB) Damsire War Command Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 34.00 (Bet365) 16:01 41.00 (William Hill) 00:31 51.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 81.00 (Bet365) 09:22 101.00 (Bet Victor) 11:13 126.00 (Midnite) 11:27 101.00 (Bet365) 11:31 126.00 (Midnite) 12:37 101.00 (Bet365) 12:39 126.00 (Midnite) 13:18 101.00 (Bet365) 13:22 126.00 (Midnite) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 1.0/10 RPR 30 by far the lowest in the field. Form 2.0/10 Form '9' — finished ninth on debut, well held. Connections 4.0/10 Smart yard cold (0 from 9 last 14d, RTF 33); Mulrennan capable 12% rider. Fitness 6.0/10 35 days off — adequate. Trip 5.0/10 Sergei Prokofiev x War Command — pure sprinting stock; trip borderline. Pace 5.0/10 Unknown style. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 7 central — neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear. Weight 5.0/10 Off level 130lb. Value 2.0/10 Bottom-tier rating, cold stable — likely overbet at any price. Σ Summary 41.0/100 Lowest rating in the field with a cold yard — true no-hoper territory. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1475.4 (1 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1508.4 (8375 runs, 1024 wins, 12.2%) Trainer 1557.2 (2770 runs, 282 wins, 10.2%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 593r 69w 12% A/E 0.81 (negative) Jockey × trainer 464r 69w 15% A/E 1.00 (fair) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 278r 36w 13% A/E 1.08 (value) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 4 237r 28w 12% A/E 0.88 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 4 8r 1w 12% A/E 0.64 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 4 67r 6w 9% A/E 0.70 (negative) Past form (last 2 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 11/11 200/1 16.00L — 34 Paul Mulrennan Dwelt start - always behind(op 100/1) 2026-04-13 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 9/10 22/1 0.20L — 31 Tom Kiely-Marshall Pulled hard - always behind(Mkt1: op 66/1 tchd 33/1; Mkt2 op 28/1 and tchd 33/1) Comment Dwelt start - always behind(op 100/1) Finishing result Position 11 SP 200/1 (201.000) Beaten (L) 16.00 Total beaten 51.50 In-running comment Dwelt start - always behind(op 100/1) ============================================================================== HEAD-TO-HEAD (1 past meetings between today's runners) ============================================================================== 2026-05-18 · Carlisle · 7f · Class 4 · Soft racingtv.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race) 1 Freddie Steady Go (GB) won SP 150/1 2 Wezzeer (IRE) 0.75L SP 7/2 3 Dark Sovereign (IRE) 3.25L SP 100/30 4 Blue Boy Junior (IRE) 0.50L SP 100/30 5 Lunar Melody (GB) 0.50L SP 13/8F 6 Bee Farmer (GB) 8.50L SP 17/2 7 Albemagic (GB) 8.00L SP 33/1 8 Great Profit (IRE) 1.50L SP 200/1 9 Golden Harvest (GB) 6.00L SP 300/1 10 Royal Sizzler (GB) 6.50L SP 150/1 11 Tzarmaggedon (GB) 16.00L SP 200/1 ============================================================================== AI RACE VERDICT ============================================================================== Pace scenario: Likely a steady, even-paced affair with no obvious lone front-runner in a 6f195y novice; favours a horse with tactical speed and a clean run, which suits Lunar Melody and Wezzeer. Narrative: Top-rated Lunar Melody comes here off an improving 5-2 line with James Doyle aboard for the Fahey yard, and her RPR 78 is clearly the best in the field. Wezzeer is the obvious threat off a winning effort for Roger Varian's powerful operation. Dark Sovereign and Bee Farmer carry strong stable claims but face questions over a 262-day absence and a cold spell for Bethell respectively. The remainder are a mix of weak form lines, long layoffs and unraced types with little to recommend them. Recommended: Lunar Melody Top RPR (78) by 7lb over next best with form 5-2, ran a promising second last time 23 days ago, James Doyle booked, Fahey yard in good order (45r 6w 14d). Alternative: Wezzeer Won last time out (form 31), trained by Roger Varian (trainer Elo 1724, 18% strike 14d), a yard that wins these novices regularly off short layoffs. ============================================================================== Generated 2026-05-19 13:41 UTC · HorseRacingValue.com · race rac_11944062