============================================================================== RACE: Carlisle ? · 2026-05-18 Watch Racing TV Live Handicap Good To Soft · Flat · Turf ============================================================================== Status FINISHED ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. RAFT UP (IRE) (#7 · Σ 64.0) 5yo G · Draw 7 Connections Jockey Ethan Tindall Trainer Harriet Bethell Owner The Helen Harriet Partnership Pedigree Sire Dandy Man (IRE) Dam Chicago Fall (IRE) Damsire Dark Angel Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 3.50 (Bet365) 16:01 3.75 (Coral) 16:42 3.50 (Bet365) 17:21 3.75 (Bet365) 20:22 4.00 (Bet365) 09:11 5.50 (Midnite) 09:40 4.50 (Bet365) 12:25 5.00 (Coral) 13:43 5.50 (Bet365) 13:49 6.50 (Spreadex) 13:53 6.00 (Betfred) 13:57 6.50 (Betfred) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 OFR 70 RPR 84 — competitive though not the top RPR. Form 8.0/10 -32811 — placed, placed, won, won pattern; clear improver. Connections 7.0/10 Harriet Bethell trainer Elo 1751 highest in field; Tindall jockey Elo 1637 good for claimer. Fitness 7.0/10 17 days since last winning run — ideal sweet spot. Trip 7.0/10 Dandy Man sire, distance-proven. Pace 6.0/10 Likely to track pace and pounce. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 7, central. Equipment 6.0/10 Wind surgery long-term effective. Weight 4.0/10 132lb after 3lb rise for the win — still capable. Value 8.0/10 In-form horse from sharp yard likely under-bet vs flashier RPRs. Σ Summary 64.0/100 Most positive momentum in the race plus elite stable — clear top pick. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1654.5 (37 runs, 6 wins, 16.2%) Jockey 1637.4 (251 runs, 27 wins, 10.8%) Trainer 1751.0 (496 runs, 81 wins, 16.3%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 4r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Jockey × trainer 3r 3w 100% A/E 3.91 (value) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 20r 6w 30% A/E 1.92 (value) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 3449r 364w 11% A/E 0.86 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 30r 3w 10% A/E 0.72 (negative) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 1466r 188w 13% A/E 0.93 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 4/12 5/1 0.20L 70 85 Ethan Tindall Slowly into stride - in rear - not clear run 2f out - headway over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 9/2 tchd 11/2) 2026-05-01 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/12 11/4 won 68 76 Ethan Tindall Travelled strongly - prominent - led inside final furlong - ridden out final 110yds - reduced lead towards finish(op 3/1 tchd 16/5) 2026-04-23 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/6 3/1 won 63 74 Ethan Tindall Towards rear - headway from over 2f out - led over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong(tchd 10/3) 2026-04-07 Southwell (AW 7f Standard Cla 8/10 17/2 1.25L 64 58 Alistair Rawlinson Slowly into stride - took keen hold - in rear - some headway over 1f out - no impression inside final furlong (jockey said gelding was slowly away and then raced keenly in early stages)(tchd 15/2) 2026-03-12 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 2/9 100/30 1.00L 63 68 Rowan Scott Dwelt start - took keen hold - towards rear - pushed along halfway - ran on well and went second inside final 110yds(op 7/2) 2026-02-14 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 3/10 13/2 0.30L 63 69 Rowan Scott Squeezed out start - towards rear - headway from over 2f out - prominent over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(tchd 6/1) 2025-12-18 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 6/11 5/1 1.00L 64 61 Rowan Scott Dwelt start - midfield on outer - headway over 4f out - weakened gradually final 110yds(op 4/1) 2025-11-28 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 5/11 15/2 0.50L 65 68 Rowan Scott In touch with leaders - no impression from over 1f out(op 9/1) 2025-10-21 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 2/8 11/8F 0.30L 63 71 Joe Fanning Prominent - led 1f out - headed towards finish(op 6/5) 2025-10-14 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 2/14 7/1 0.10L 63 70 Joe Fanning Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - headway on near side of group and led narrowly over 1f out - rallied when headed final 110yds - soon edged left - just held(op 15/2 tchd 13/2 and tchd 8/1) 2025-07-04 Doncaster 6f Good To F Cla 8/12 9/2 0.75L 63 54 Rowan Scott In touch with leaders - headway over 2f out - briefly led over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 4/1) 2025-06-19 Ripon 6f Good Cla 2/12 9/1 1.25L 62 68 Rowan Scott Raced far side - in touch with leaders - switched left 2f out - led group over 1f out - went second inside final furlong - no match for winner - 1st of 3 in group(op 13/2) 2025-06-07 Doncaster 6f Good Cla 1/10 9/2 won 56 66 Rowan Scott Took keen hold - midfield - pushed along and headway from over 2f out - led over 1f out - ridden briefly inside final furlong - kept on well(op 4/1 tchd 5/1) 2025-05-10 Leicester 6f Good To F Cla 3/14 11/2 0.75L 56 62 Sean D Bowen Prominent - led narrowly 3f out - headed and weakened inside final furlong(op 6/1) 2025-04-26 Leicester 6f Good Cla 8/11 5/2F 1.25L 57 47 Billy Loughnane In touch with leaders - weakened from over 1f out(op 11/4 tchd 9/4 and tchd 3/1) 2025-04-04 Leicester 6f Good To F Cla 2/7 7/1 0.30L 56 62 Billy Loughnane In touch with leaders - headway on near side of group over 1f out - ridden and led 1f out - soon edged right - headed and no extra final strides(op 13/2 tchd 6/1 and tchd 8/1) 2025-03-24 Wolverhampton 6f Standard Cla 6/9 2/1F 0.30L 56 59 Joe Fanning Took keen hold - prominent - outpaced inside final furlong(tchd 9/4) 2025-03-06 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/11 7/2F won 53 62 Sean D Bowen Took keen hold - prominent - went second after 2f - shaken up to lead over 1f out - ridden inside final furlong - always doing enough(op 10/3) 2025-02-27 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/9 11/4F won 48 62 Joe Fanning Took keen hold - prominent - shaken up and led over 1f out - clear inside final furlong - ran on(op 2/1) 2025-02-15 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 5/11 9/2 1.00L 50 44 Miss Hannah Dring Raced wide - took keen hold - in touch with leaders - kept on but no impression from over 1f out - drifted left inside final furlong(op 5/1 tchd 11/2) Comment Slowly into stride - in rear - not clear run 2f out - headway over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 9/2 tchd 11/2) Finishing result Position 4 SP 5/1 (6.000) Beaten (L) 0.20 Total beaten 1.00 OR after 70 In-running comment Slowly into stride - in rear - not clear run 2f out - headway over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 9/2 tchd 11/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2. MOUNT RUAPEHU (IRE) (#8 · Σ 62.0) 6yo G · Draw 11 · p Connections Jockey Andrew Mullen Trainer Iain Jardine Owner Jardine Roofing Ltd Pedigree Sire Invincible Spirit (IRE) Dam Katla (IRE) Damsire Majestic Missile Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 11.00 (Bet365) 18:20 10.00 (Bet365) 20:22 11.00 (Bet365) 00:31 10.00 (Bet365) 02:31 11.00 (Bet365) 11:31 12.00 (Coral) 12:45 11.00 (Bet365) 13:18 10.00 (Bet365) 13:28 11.00 (Betfred) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 OFR 68 RPR 82 — average in field. Form 8.0/10 113128 — three wins/places in five with 8th last time. Connections 5.0/10 Jardine 9% 14d ok; Mullen jockey Elo 1511 adequate. Fitness 8.0/10 7 days off — primed and race-tight. Trip 7.0/10 Course and distance form well documented. Pace 6.0/10 Cheekpieces help focus, prominent type. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 11 of 13, fine. Equipment 6.0/10 Cheekpieces retained, effective. Weight 6.0/10 130lb off OFR 68 — well treated relative to past form. Value 6.0/10 Form figures may be underrated by punters focused on RPRs. Σ Summary 62.0/100 Consistent grinder in best form line of the race. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1655.9 (44 runs, 6 wins, 13.6%) Jockey 1510.6 (6965 runs, 564 wins, 8.1%) Trainer 1566.5 (5261 runs, 577 wins, 11.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 326r 21w 6% A/E 0.76 (negative) Jockey × trainer 1499r 138w 9% A/E 0.86 (fair) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 335r 24w 7% A/E 0.70 (negative) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 4643r 681w 15% A/E 0.92 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 16r 2w 12% A/E 0.67 (negative) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 76r 10w 13% A/E 0.86 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 8/12 10/1 1.00L 68 82 Andrew Mullen Midfield - never better than midfield(op 9/1) 2026-05-11 Catterick 7f Good Cla 8/14 5/1J 2.50L 65 75 Cara Tuke In touch with leaders - dropped to midfield before halfway - no impression from over 1f out(op 4/1) 2026-05-03 Hamilton 5f Good Cla 2/12 7/2F 0.10L 65 72 Andrew Mullen Held up in midfield - good headway and switched left 1f out - soon challenging - ridden and led narrowly inside final 110yds - headed post(op 10/3 tchd 16/5) 2026-04-28 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/10 11/4F won 60 71 Andrew Mullen Midfield - headway on outer 2f out - ridden and led over 1f out - quickened final 110yds - readily 2026-04-06 Wolverhampton 6f Standard Cla 3/9 5/2F 2.50L 60 62 Jack Nicholls Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - dropped to midfield 4f out - headway on outer 1f out - went third towards finish(op 9/4 tchd 2/1) 2026-03-21 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/7 9/2 won 58 67 Jack Nicholls Soon in touch with leaders - switched right when headway over 1f out - ridden to lead inside final furlong - kept on(tchd 4/1) 2026-03-14 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/11 9/1 won 56 64 Andrew Mullen Towards rear - headway against near rail over 1f out - ridden to lead inside final furlong - faced challenges inside final 110yds - just held on(tchd 8/1) 2026-02-24 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 4/10 3/1 0.75L 57 56 Mohammed Tabti Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - kept on and went fourth final strides(op 11/4) 2026-01-28 Dundalk (AW) 7f Standard — 5/14 9/4F 0.50L 57 57 Shane Gray Soon midfield - bit short of room from 2f out - slightly hampered inside final furlong - kept on(op 3/1) 2026-01-13 Dundalk (AW) 6f Standard — 2/14 7/2J 1.00L 56 63 Leigh Roche Towards rear - outpaced early - ridden and headway over 1f out - bit short of room and switched left inside final 110yds - went second towards finish (jockey said gelding didn't travel early on)(tchd 10/3) 2025-12-16 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/14 3/1F won 51 60 Shane Gray Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - headway to lead over 1f out - ridden and edged right inside final furlong - soon faced challenge - kept on(op 5/2) 2025-07-25 Cork (IRE) 6f Good To F — 17/21 9/2F 0.30L 54 30 Shane Foley Prominent towards far side - weakening when slightly hampered over 1f out - soon no extra(tchd 5/1) 2025-07-18 Down Royal (I 5f Good — 4/12 7/2F 0.10L 54 55 Joseph Harnett Awkward start - towards rear - headway over 1f out - ran on well and went fourth towards finish(tchd 11/4) 2025-05-05 Curragh (IRE) 7f Good — 11/25 9/1 0.10L 59 49 Neve Bennett Prominent - weakened from over 1f out(op 16/1) 2025-04-12 Curragh (IRE) 6f Good — 10/15 14/1 1.75L 63 46 Joseph Harnett Never better than midfield(op 10/1) 2025-04-05 Bellewstown ( 1m Good — 9/12 5/1J 0.30L 66 54 Joseph Harnett In rear - pushed along 4f out - soon outpaced and detached - stayed on inside final furlong - nearest finish(op 15/2) 2025-03-16 Curragh (IRE) 6f Soft — 10/13 7/1 3.75L 67 36 Ronan Whelan Soon led - headed 2f out - soon weakened (vet said gelding was post race normal)(op 4/1) 2024-11-03 Curragh (IRE) 5f Yielding — 4/13 13/2 2.75L 68 60 Chris Hayes In touch with leaders - going okay when edged left halfway - went third over 1f out - no extra when lost third inside final furlong - weakened gradually final 110yds(op 11/1) 2024-10-22 Curragh (IRE) 6f Soft — 8/15 11/2 0.75L 69 66 Cian Horgan In touch with leaders - no extra inside final furlong(op 8/1 tchd 6/1) 2024-10-17 Curragh (IRE) 5f Yielding — 3/17 12/1 1.25L 69 68 Cian Horgan Prominent towards near side - went third inside final furlong - no impression towards finish(op 14/1 tchd 16/1) Comment Midfield - never better than midfield(op 9/1) Finishing result Position 8 SP 10/1 (11.000) Beaten (L) 1.00 Total beaten 6.00 OR after 68 In-running comment Midfield - never better than midfield(op 9/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3. MR DREAMSELLER (GB) (#4 · Σ 61.0) 4yo G · Draw 5 · h Connections Jockey David Nolan Trainer David & Nicola Barron Owner Mrs Christine Barron Pedigree Sire Portamento (IRE) Dam Vigorito (GB) Damsire Arcano Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 17.00 (Bet365) 17:41 19.00 (Bet365) 22:01 17.00 (Bet365) 09:11 13.00 (Coral) 11:45 12.00 (Bet Victor) 11:50 11.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 7.0/10 RPR 87 second-highest in field, only beaten on raw RPR by Fan Mail. Form 6.0/10 -34107 — won two back, last run disappointing 7th. Connections 5.0/10 Barron 0/7 14d cold but Nolan jockey Elo 1573, trainer Elo 1657 strong long-term. Fitness 7.0/10 16 days since last run — race-fit. Trip 7.0/10 Proven over the trip in handicaps. Pace 6.0/10 Forward-going type suited by likely pace setup. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 5 of 13, mid-bias neutral. Equipment 6.0/10 Headgear retained, no change. Weight 5.0/10 133lb off OFR 71, fair. Value 6.0/10 Solid each-way candidate, may sneak in at value if last run dulls market. Σ Summary 61.0/100 Best blend of class and recent winning form in the field. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1536.3 (6 runs, 1 wins, 16.7%) Jockey 1573.1 (4163 runs, 449 wins, 10.8%) Trainer 1657.3 (950 runs, 98 wins, 10.3%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 164r 14w 9% A/E 0.78 (negative) Jockey × trainer 22r 2w 9% A/E 0.70 (negative) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 28r 5w 18% A/E 1.46 (value) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 19r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 5r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 433r 68w 16% A/E 1.08 (value) Past form (last 7 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 7/12 17/2 0.20L 71 84 David Nolan Never better than midfield(op 9/1 tchd 10/1) 2026-05-02 Thirsk 6f Good To F Cla 7/9 16/1 1.75L 74 60 Oisin Orr In rear - headway on far side of group over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong (jockey said gelding became upset in stalls and was slowly away as a result)(op 14/1) 2026-04-18 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 12/18 8/1 0.05L 74 62 David Nolan Raced centre - in touch with leaders - weakened 1f out(op 11/1) 2026-02-06 Wolverhampton 6f Standard Cla 1/4 5/2 won 71 80 Lewis Edmunds Prominent - nudged along 2f out - ridden and pressed leader inside final furlong - led and ran on well final 110yds - readily(op 10/3) 2026-01-20 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 4/10 20/1 0.30L — 75 David Nolan Taken down early - in touch with leaders - headway over 1f out - no extra final 110yds(op 22/1 tchd 18/1) 2026-01-01 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 3/8 50/1 1.25L — 64 David Nolan Walked to post - blindfold off late - slowly away - took keen hold - in rear - headway on far side of group 2f out - pressed leaders inside final furlong - no extra towards finish(tchd 66/1) 2025-11-03 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 4/6 14/1 3.50L — 53 Joe Fanning Led but pestered - headed 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 12/1 tchd 18/1) Comment Never better than midfield(op 9/1 tchd 10/1) Finishing result Position 7 SP 17/2 (9.500) Beaten (L) 0.20 Total beaten 5.00 OR after 71 In-running comment Never better than midfield(op 9/1 tchd 10/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4. FAN MAIL (GB) (#12 · Σ 58.0) 4yo G · Draw 12 · p Connections Jockey Sean Kirrane Trainer Tim Easterby Owner L Bondsheikh Aymen Jawad Al Hamandiptr Pedigree Sire Mayson (GB) Dam Fanfair (GB) Damsire Royal Applause Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 5.00 (Bet365) 16:01 5.50 (BetWright) 16:21 5.00 (Bet365) 17:21 5.50 (Bet365) 03:02 6.00 (Midnite) 09:11 9.00 (Coral) 09:42 9.50 (Betfred) 12:25 9.00 (Coral) 13:43 8.50 (Bet365) 13:49 8.00 (Bet365) 13:53 8.50 (Bet365) 13:57 8.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 8.0/10 RPR 91 — clearly the highest-rated horse in the race. Form 3.0/10 -47756 — six straight losing efforts. Connections 5.0/10 Easterby 9/86 14d (10%) — high volume, decent strike; Kirrane jockey Elo 1616. Fitness 7.0/10 19 days off — race-fit. Trip 6.0/10 Mayson/Royal Applause pedigree perfect for 6f. Pace 5.0/10 Cheekpieces, mid-division pace. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 12, neutral to slightly negative if pace is wide. Equipment 6.0/10 Cheekpieces retained. Weight 7.0/10 Just 123lb off OFR 61 — well treated if class kicks in. Value 6.0/10 Class-from-the-weights angle reasonable. Σ Summary 58.0/100 Race's classiest horse on RPR but needs the head back in the game. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1548.4 (19 runs, 2 wins, 10.5%) Jockey 1615.5 (2008 runs, 203 wins, 10.1%) Trainer 1635.0 (11825 runs, 1281 wins, 10.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 73r 10w 14% A/E 1.15 (value) Jockey × trainer 792r 83w 10% A/E 0.88 (fair) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 1260r 124w 10% A/E 0.78 (negative) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 1912r 224w 12% A/E 0.89 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 11r 2w 18% A/E 0.96 (fair) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 3638r 375w 10% A/E 0.81 (negative) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 2/12 7/1 0.30L 61 83 Sean Kirrane Prominent - lost position but in touch with leaders over 3f out - headway and went second over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - just held 2026-04-29 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 6/8 11/4F 0.50L 68 67 Sean Kirrane In rear - headway over 2f out - no impression from 1f out(op 10/3) 2026-03-27 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 5/9 11/1 0.30L 69 70 David Allan Dwelt start - in rear - switched left and headway from over 1f out - no impression final 110yds(op 8/1) 2026-03-12 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 7/11 11/2 0.20L 70 69 David Allan Prominent up the centre - dropped to midfield after 2f - switched left and headway over 2f out - no extra final 110yds(op 13/2) 2026-02-24 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 7/12 8/1 0.20L 72 69 Sean Kirrane Prominent - weakened final 110yds 2026-02-11 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 4/11 11/1 1.00L 73 74 Sean Kirrane Led early - soon headed and prominent - no extra when bit short of room inside final 110yds (jockey said gelding was briefly denied a clear run in the closing stages)(op 10/1) 2025-10-23 Chelmsford (A 6f Standard Cla 6/10 5/1 0.20L 73 63 Sean Kirrane Midfield - switched right and some headway from over 1f out - no impression inside final furlong(op 9/2 tchd 4/1) 2025-10-03 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/13 11/2 won 69 78 David Allan Midfield - headway when towards near side from over 1f out - ridden and kept on well inside final furlong - led towards finish(op 5/1) 2025-09-11 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 5/10 7/4F 0.30L 69 70 Sean Kirrane Towards rear against near rail - headway halfway - keeping on over 1f out - briefly went second inside final furlong - short of room jockey unbalanced and lost three places final 110yds (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run on a couple of occasions inside final 2f)(op 2/1 tchd 9/4) 2025-08-16 Ripon 6f Good To F Cla 12/15 40/1 0.20L 67 54 Duran Fentiman Awkward start - raced far side - in touch with leaders - headway and hung right over 1f out - weakened final 110yds - 6th of 7 in group(op 33/1 tchd 50/1) 2025-07-26 York 7f Good Cla 13/16 25/1 6.50L 72 44 Rossa Ryan In touch with leaders - weakened from 2f out 2025-07-05 Haydock 7f Good Cla 7/9 28/1 1.50L 74 54 David Allan Prominent - towards near side from 3f out - weakened over 1f out(op 22/1) 2025-04-27 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 6/13 17/2 0.75L 76 64 Sean Kirrane In touch with leaders - weakened from 2f out(op 14/1) 2025-04-08 Pontefract 6f Good Cla 6/9 18/5 2.25L 77 69 Sean Kirrane In touch with leaders - weakened from over 1f out(op 9/2 tchd 7/2) 2025-03-15 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 4/11 8/1 0.50L 77 80 Sean Kirrane Midfield - in touch with leaders when bit short of room over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 11/1) 2025-02-15 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/11 3/1 won 75 80 Sean Kirrane Reluctant to load - started quickly - in touch with leaders - switched left over 2f out - pushed along to lead over 1f out - ridden and went clear inside final furlong - readily(op 5/2) 2025-02-01 Wolverhampton 6f Standard Cla 2/10 100/30 2.50L 75 73 Rossa Ryan Midfield - switched to centre over 1f out - ridden and headway inside final furlong - kept on and went second towards finish - no match for winner(op 9/2 tchd 11/4) 2024-12-28 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 4/11 50/1 0.75L — 73 Sean Kirrane Midfield - headway over 1f out - kept on final 110yds(tchd 40/1 and tchd 80/1) 2024-08-29 Carlisle 6f Soft Cla 8/10 200/1 0.50L — 51 Duran Fentiman Midfield - weakened over 1f out(op 150/1) 2024-07-19 Pontefract 6f Good Cla 10/11 50/1 12.00L — — James Sullivan Always behind(op 33/1) Comment Prominent - lost position but in touch with leaders over 3f out - headway and went second over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - just held Finishing result Position 2 SP 7/1 (8.000) Beaten (L) 0.30 Total beaten 0.30 OR after 61 In-running comment Prominent - lost position but in touch with leaders over 3f out - headway and went second over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - just held ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5. COUNTING CARDS (GB) (#5 · Σ 56.0) 4yo G · Draw 8 · t Connections Jockey Callum Rodriguez Trainer Edward Bethell Owner My Future Champion S Liyanage Pedigree Sire Territories (IRE) Dam Romaana (GB) Damsire Iffraaj Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 15.00 (Bet365) 20:22 12.00 (William Hill) 00:31 13.00 (Bet365) 09:11 9.00 (Bet Victor) 09:48 8.50 (Bet365) 11:00 9.00 (Bet365) 12:37 8.50 (Bet365) 12:45 9.00 (Coral) 13:18 8.50 (Coral) 13:53 9.00 (Betfred) 13:57 8.50 (William Hill) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 7.0/10 RPR 88 joint-second highest. Form 3.0/10 /27-49 — finished 9th last time, no positive recent run. Connections 7.0/10 Bethell trainer Elo 1712, Rodriguez jockey Elo 1691 — elite combo for grade. Fitness 7.0/10 19 days since last — race-fit. Trip 6.0/10 Territories sire fine over 5-6f. Pace 5.0/10 Tongue tie, mid-division pace. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 8, neutral. Equipment 6.0/10 Tongue tie + 2025-07-15 wind surgery — equipment story. Weight 5.0/10 132lb off OFR 70, fair. Value 5.0/10 Class clearly there but form holding him back. Σ Summary 56.0/100 Best yard in the race with a horse short of form — depends which wins out. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1520.5 (7 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1691.3 (3720 runs, 552 wins, 14.8%) Trainer 1711.5 (1338 runs, 217 wins, 16.2%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 168r 26w 15% A/E 0.98 (fair) Jockey × trainer 530r 108w 20% A/E 0.94 (fair) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 43r 9w 21% A/E 1.04 (fair) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 806r 80w 10% A/E 0.77 (negative) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 14r 1w 7% A/E 0.33 (negative) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 1088r 133w 12% A/E 0.87 (fair) Past form (last 8 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 12/12 9/2F 1.00L 70 84 Callum Rodriguez Prominent - lost position over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong (jockey said gelding stopped quickly; vet had nothing to report)(op 15/2) 2026-04-29 Musselburgh 7f Good Cla 9/10 12/1 0.05L 73 54 Clifford Lee Took keen hold - midfield - weakened quickly from over 2f out(op 10/1 tchd 14/1) 2026-01-12 Wolverhampton 7f Standard Cla 4/8 9/2 2.75L 75 68 Callum Rodriguez Prominent - weakened final 110yds(op 11/2) 2025-12-20 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 7/10 5/2F 0.75L 75 69 Callum Rodriguez Took keen hold - prominent - weakened inside final furlong (jockey said gelding ran too free)(op 2/1) 2025-10-23 Southwell (AW 1m Standard Cla 2/9 7/2 2.25L 75 80 Callum Rodriguez Took keen hold - midfield - headway over 2f out - led then hung left over 1f out - headed then no extra inside final furlong(op 11/4 tchd 4/1) 2024-09-19 Pontefract 6f Good To F Cla 2/9 6/1 0.75L — 76 P J McDonald In touch with leaders - headway when hung left over 1f out - wandered around inside final furlong - kept on well final 110yds - went second towards finish(op 8/1) 2024-08-16 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 4/10 11/2 0.10L — 69 Callum Rodriguez Took keen hold - prominent - outpaced 3f out - rallied and went third 1f out - lost third final strides(op 4/1) 2024-07-27 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 7/8 7/2 0.50L — 60 Callum Rodriguez Dwelt start - took keen hold - held up in rear - some headway 3f out - no impression when edged left over 1f out(op 11/4) Comment Prominent - lost position over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong (jockey said gelding stopped quickly; vet had nothing to report)(op 15/2) Finishing result Position 12 SP 9/2F (5.500) Beaten (L) 1.00 Total beaten 9.50 OR after 70 In-running comment Prominent - lost position over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong (jockey said gelding stopped quickly; vet had nothing to report)(op 15/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6. IRIS DANCER (GB) (#13 · Σ 54.0) 8yo M · Draw 1 · b Connections Jockey Rowan Scott Trainer Tristan Davidson Owner Auld Pals Pedigree Sire Kodiac (GB) Dam Rainbow's Arch (IRE) Damsire Dubawi Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 9.50 (Bet365) 17:41 7.00 (William Hill) 20:22 6.00 (Betfred) 09:11 6.50 (William Hill) 09:34 7.00 (Betfred) 13:28 6.50 (William Hill) 13:43 6.00 (William Hill) 13:49 5.50 (William Hill) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 4.0/10 OFR 60 lowest in field, RPR 83 modest. Form 4.0/10 09-204 — placed last but mostly out of frame. Connections 5.0/10 Davidson 10% 14d ok; Rowan Scott jockey Elo 1609. Fitness 7.0/10 13 days off — sharp. Trip 7.0/10 Course form for Cumbrian yard, knows it well. Pace 5.0/10 Hold-up runner in race short of pace. Draw 4.0/10 Stall 1 widest off — could be marooned. Equipment 6.0/10 Blinkers in place. Weight 7.0/10 Bottom weight on 122lb, OFR 60. Value 5.0/10 Veteran on lowest mark — outside chance. Σ Summary 54.0/100 Course-form veteran with TS angle but tough to win at 8yo from low Elo base. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1527.8 (81 runs, 11 wins, 13.6%) Jockey 1608.6 (3836 runs, 316 wins, 8.2%) Trainer 1576.6 (920 runs, 124 wins, 13.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 126r 11w 9% A/E 0.87 (fair) Jockey × trainer 78r 14w 18% A/E 1.40 (value) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 67r 7w 10% A/E 0.94 (fair) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 5827r 723w 12% A/E 0.90 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 33r 6w 18% A/E 1.25 (value) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 2442r 318w 13% A/E 0.84 (negative) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 10/12 6/1 0.50L 60 83 Rowan Scott Prominent - outpaced 2f out - dropped to rear over 1f out(op 9/2 tchd 4/1) 2026-05-05 Ayr 6f Good To F Cla 4/7 15/2 0.75L 62 — Andrew Mullen In touch with leaders - dropped to last 2f out - switched left over 1f out - kept on well inside final 110yds(op 8/1) 2026-04-18 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 11/18 25/1 0.20L 63 51 Andrew Mullen Raced centre - in touch with leaders - weakened 2f out(op 18/1) 2026-04-07 Pontefract 5f Good To S Cla 2/13 20/1 1.25L 62 65 Lexie Clarkson Towards rear on inner - headway 1f out - kept on and went second towards finish(op 12/1) 2025-10-27 Redcar 6f Good To S Cla 9/13 22/1 0.30L 65 55 Amie Waugh Led narrowly - headed but prominent after 2f - weakened quickly over 1f out(op 25/1 tchd 20/1) 2025-10-09 Ayr 6f Heavy Cla 10/11 150/1 3.00L 68 41 Rhys Elliott In touch with leaders - lost position over 2f out - soon weakened(op 66/1) 2025-09-29 Hamilton 6f Soft Cla 7/7 10/1 3.75L 69 50 Miss Amy Milburn In touch with leaders on near side of group - weakened over 2f out(op 9/1 tchd 17/2) 2025-09-21 Hamilton 6f Soft Cla 7/8 10/1 1.25L 69 56 Andrew Mullen Led at steady pace - headed and lost second 2f out - weakened quickly from over 1f out(op 11/2) 2025-09-11 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 10/11 25/1 0.20L 70 51 Andrew Mullen Led - headed 3f out - weakened from over 2f out(op 22/1 tchd 28/1) 2025-09-03 Hamilton 6f Good To S Cla 3/4 2/1 2.25L 70 63 Andrew Mullen Led - headed and prominent 4f out - outpaced over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong(op 13/8 tchd 6/4) 2025-08-22 Hamilton 6f Good To F Cla 1/5 5/2 won 68 75 Andrew Mullen Raced in second - outpaced and lost position 2f out - raced in last when ridden 1f out - ran on well inside final furlong - led final strides(Mkt1: tchd 11/4; Mkt2 op 9/4 tchd 11/4) 2025-08-12 Hamilton 6f Good Cla 6/10 11/2 1.25L 68 65 Andrew Mullen Led - headed but pressed leader from over 2f out - weakened from over 1f out(op 7/1) 2025-07-25 York 6f Good Cla 20/22 33/1 0.50L 70 50 Andrew Mullen In touch with leaders on near side of group - weakened 2f out 2025-07-12 York 6f Good To F Cla 11/18 22/1 1.75L 72 62 Rossa Ryan Alone early - midfield - joined main group before halfway - edged left and weakened from 2f out(op 18/1 tchd 16/1) 2025-06-25 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 4/9 5/1 1.25L 67 68 Jason Hart Pressed leader - lost second over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong(op 9/2 tchd 11/2) 2025-06-18 Hamilton 6f Good Cla 1/7 5/2 won 63 76 Andrew Mullen Ducked right start - took keen hold - made all - faced challenges from 2f out - soon pushed along - kept on well final furlong - won going away(op 15/8) 2025-06-11 Hamilton 6f Good Cla 1/7 9/4F won 59 68 Andrew Mullen Made all - ridden when drifted left and bumped rival final 110yds - kept on and all out(op 10/3 tchd 2/1) 2025-06-05 Hamilton 6f Good Cla 4/12 8/1 0.30L 59 63 Andrew Mullen Led - headed under 2f out - keeping on when short of room inside final 110yds(op 6/1) 2025-05-19 Carlisle 6f Good To F Cla 8/10 14/1 2.00L 62 43 James Sullivan Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - stumbled after 1f - weakened from under 2f out(op 10/1 tchd 16/1) 2025-04-28 Ayr 7f Good Cla 9/12 20/1 0.30L 62 58 Andrew Mullen Midfield on inner - bit short of room but no impression from over 1f out(op 33/1 tchd 40/1) Comment Prominent - outpaced 2f out - dropped to rear over 1f out(op 9/2 tchd 4/1) Finishing result Position 10 SP 6/1 (7.000) Beaten (L) 0.50 Total beaten 8.00 OR after 60 In-running comment Prominent - outpaced 2f out - dropped to rear over 1f out(op 9/2 tchd 4/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7. INVINCIBLE RUBY (IRE) (#10 · Σ 53.0) 4yo F · Draw 6 Connections Jockey Mohammed Tabti Trainer Iain Jardine Owner Duncan Mccready Pedigree Sire Invincible Army (IRE) Dam Satwa Ruby (FR) Damsire Verglas Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 34.00 (Bet365) 16:01 36.00 (7Bet) 09:11 51.00 (Bet365) 12:31 41.00 (BetTom) 12:37 36.00 (7Bet) 13:24 34.00 (Bet365) 13:28 31.00 (7Bet) 13:35 34.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 7.0/10 RPR 88 joint top. Form 2.0/10 608-00 — two duck-eggs and a faded sixth. Connections 4.0/10 Jardine 9% 14d; Tabti claims 5lb but jockey Elo 1681 elevated. Fitness 7.0/10 17 days since last run. Trip 6.0/10 Invincible Army pedigree fits. Pace 5.0/10 Hold-up runner. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 6, neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 7.0/10 Down to 127lb (effectively 122) — well in if it sparks. Value 5.0/10 Low Elo and bad form offset apparent class edge. Σ Summary 53.0/100 Class peep but form is genuinely poor — speculative. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1442.2 (11 runs, 1 wins, 9.1%) Jockey 1681.4 (454 runs, 49 wins, 10.8%) Trainer 1566.5 (5261 runs, 577 wins, 11.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 14r 2w 14% A/E 0.94 (fair) Jockey × trainer 221r 28w 13% A/E 0.90 (fair) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 335r 24w 7% A/E 0.70 (negative) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 334r 43w 13% A/E 0.95 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 60r 9w 15% A/E 0.94 (fair) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 970r 127w 13% A/E 0.95 (fair) Past form (last 12 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 11/12 33/1 0.50L 65 80 Mohammed Tabti Dwelt start - always behind(op 28/1) 2026-05-01 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 12/12 33/1 0.50L 68 29 Greg Fairley Took keen hold - in touch with leaders in centre of group - weakened quickly from 2f out - lost touch inside final furlong(op 40/1) 2026-04-12 Musselburgh 7f Good Cla 10/10 25/1 21.00L 70 5 Andrew Mullen Took keen hold - midfield on outer - raced wide and dropped to rear over 4f out - lost touch from 3f out - tailed off(op 40/1) 2025-09-13 Musselburgh 7f Good To S Cla 8/11 18/1 9.50L 72 25 Mohammed Tabti Took keen hold - prominent on outer - lost ground quickly over 2f out - lost touch from over 1f out(op 25/1) 2025-08-23 Redcar 6f Good To F Cla 10/10 10/1 2.75L 73 56 Mohammed Tabti Prominent - weakened over 1f out(op 16/1) 2025-07-18 Hamilton 1m½f Good Cla 6/6 3/1 1.50L 74 67 Mohammed Tabti Led - headed over 1f out - edged right and weakened inside final furlong(op 11/4) 2025-07-09 Catterick 7f Good To F Cla 1/7 5/2F won 68 77 Mohammed Tabti Prominent - ridden to lead over 1f out - kept on well(op 10/3) 2025-06-21 Ayr 7f Good Cla 2/8 3/1 1.75L 68 71 Mohammed Tabti Led - alone towards far side over 3f out - switched to centre over 2f out - headed over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 7/2) 2025-06-10 Catterick 7f Good Cla 7/14 50/1 0.50L 70 66 Mohammed Tabti Towards rear - some headway when not clear run and switched right over 1f out - not clear run and switched left inside final furlong - bit short of room then kept on final 110yds - eyecatcher(op 33/1) 2025-05-19 Wolverhampton 6f Standard Cla 7/11 28/1 1.25L — 56 Mohammed Tabti In touch with leaders - weakened from 2f out(op 25/1 tchd 20/1) 2025-05-12 Catterick 7f Good To F Cla 3/10 16/1 0.30L — 61 Mohammed Tabti Took keen hold - soon led - headed inside final furlong - lost second towards finish(op 12/1 tchd 11/1) 2025-04-23 Catterick 7f Good To F Cla 4/4 50/1 0.20L — 58 Mohammed Tabti Raced in third - no extra inside final furlong(tchd 66/1) Comment Dwelt start - always behind(op 28/1) Finishing result Position 11 SP 33/1 (34.000) Beaten (L) 0.50 Total beaten 8.50 OR after 65 In-running comment Dwelt start - always behind(op 28/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 8. IMPRESSOR (IRE) (#9 · Σ 52.0) 9yo G · Draw 9 · p Connections Jockey P J McDonald Trainer Phillip Makin Owner J Toes J Oloan Pedigree Sire Footstepsinthesand (GB) Dam Little Empress (IRE) Damsire Holy Roman Emperor Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 21.00 (Bet365) 18:20 19.00 (Bet365) 20:22 21.00 (Bet365) 00:31 19.00 (Bet365) 09:22 17.00 (William Hill) 09:48 15.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 OFR 68 RPR 83 — competitive enough. Form 3.0/10 67-400 — three duck-eggs in the form line. Connections 6.0/10 Makin 2/6 14d = 33% strike rate small but hot; PJ McDonald jockey Elo 1573. Fitness 6.0/10 30 days since last run — fresh enough. Trip 6.0/10 Long-time sprinter, knows the trip. Pace 5.0/10 Cheekpieces, mid-division. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 9, neutral. Equipment 6.0/10 Cheekpieces retained. Weight 5.0/10 130lb off OFR 68. Value 5.0/10 Veteran needs to bounce back, possible at price. Σ Summary 52.0/100 Veteran from a yard in form — outside chance only. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1623.7 (76 runs, 8 wins, 10.5%) Jockey 1572.7 (7964 runs, 954 wins, 12.0%) Trainer 1675.7 (1077 runs, 73 wins, 6.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 363r 47w 13% A/E 0.95 (fair) Jockey × trainer 8r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 32r 2w 6% A/E 0.67 (negative) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 2484r 297w 12% A/E 0.91 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 31r 3w 10% A/E 0.89 (fair) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 1360r 166w 12% A/E 0.83 (negative) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 6/12 11/1 2.50L 68 83 P J McDonald In rear - some headway final furlong - never dangerous(op 14/1) 2026-04-18 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 10/18 14/1 0.75L 70 58 Sam James Raced near side - held up in rear - not clear run over 1f out - never dangerous(op 18/1) 2026-04-12 Musselburgh 5f Good To S Cla 10/17 33/1 0.50L 70 57 Sam James Took keen hold - towards rear - headway on far side of group over 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 28/1) 2026-03-29 Doncaster 5f Good To S Cla 4/17 40/1 0.30L 71 73 Connor Beasley Raced centre - in touch with leaders - headway inside final furlong - kept on - 4th of 9 in group 2025-10-28 Leicester 5f Soft Cla 7/9 11/1 1.00L 73 57 Shane Gray In rear throughout (jockey said gelding was never travelling)(op 10/1 tchd 12/1) 2025-10-24 Doncaster 6f Soft Cla 6/14 16/1 0.50L 73 65 Archie Young Reared in stalls before start - in rear - switched right and headway under 2f out - edged left and no extra final 110yds(op 25/1) 2025-09-29 Hamilton 6f Soft Cla 5/7 5/2F 1.00L 72 66 Mr Finian Maguire Pressed leaders - weakened over 1f out 2025-09-22 Hamilton 5f Soft Cla 1/8 9/4F won 68 76 Archie Young Held up in last - switched left and headway over 2f out - led and ridden over 1f out - ran on final 110yds(op 10/3) 2025-09-21 Hamilton 6f Soft Cla 2/7 5/1 0.50L 68 74 Sam James Held up in rear - headway from 2f out - kept on well final 110yds - went second towards finish - just held(op 11/2 tchd 7/1) 2025-09-12 Doncaster 6f Good Cla 3/15 66/1 0.75L 68 73 Archie Young In rear - headway on far side of group over 1f out - went third inside final furlong - kept on(op 50/1) 2025-07-25 York 6f Good Cla 21/22 80/1 0.30L 71 50 Rowan Scott Towards rear throughout 2025-07-18 Haydock 6f Good Cla 5/9 33/1 0.10L 71 64 Pat Cosgrave Prominent - outpaced inside final furlong(op 20/1) 2025-05-29 Carlisle 5f Good To S Cla 7/10 50/1 1.75L 72 56 Sam James Ducked right start - midfield - in touch with leaders 2f out - weakening when not clear run 1f out (vet said gelding bled from the nose)(op 25/1) 2024-11-06 Nottingham 5f Soft Cla 7/9 11/1 0.00L 72 63 Tom Kiely-Marshall Held up in rear on far side of group - outpaced 2f out - no impression(op 14/1 tchd 9/1 and tchd 16/1) 2024-10-18 Redcar 5f Soft Cla 1/12 7/1 won 69 77 Connor Beasley In touch with leaders - ridden 2f out - edged left 1f out - kept on well to lead inside final furlong - won going away(op 8/1) 2024-10-08 Leicester 6f Heavy Cla 5/13 9/1 2.50L 69 59 Sam James Led narrowly - headed over 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 14/1) 2024-09-22 Hamilton 6f Good To S Cla 9/9 15/2 1.25L 70 59 Rowan Scott Took keen hold - led but pestered - faced challenges and headed over 1f out - soon lost position - weakened quickly inside final furlong (trainer could offer no explanation for the poor form shown)(tchd 7/1) 2024-08-13 Hamilton 6f Soft Cla 2/15 17/2 0.30L 69 77 Rowan Scott Prominent - led over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - headed final strides(op 11/1) 2024-07-17 Thirsk 6f Good To S Cla 2/12 14/1 0.50L 67 76 Rowan Scott Prominent - pressed leaders on far side of group 2f out - led over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong - headed inside final 110yds - no extra towards finish(op 12/1) 2024-07-13 Hamilton 5f Good To S Cla 4/8 3/1J 1.50L 67 64 Andrew Breslin Ducked left start - took keen hold - disputed lead early - prominent when hampered after 1f - edged left over 1f out - soon no extra(op 10/3) Comment In rear - some headway final furlong - never dangerous(op 14/1) Finishing result Position 6 SP 11/1 (12.000) Beaten (L) 2.50 Total beaten 4.75 OR after 68 In-running comment In rear - some headway final furlong - never dangerous(op 14/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9. RAN AMOK (IRE) (#3 · Σ 51.0) 4yo G · Draw 3 · t Connections Jockey Jack Nicholls Trainer Hugo Palmer Owner Pink Ladies Executive Ltd Pedigree Sire Dandy Man (IRE) Dam Caledonian Belle (IRE) Damsire Mastercraftsman Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 12.00 (Bet365) 17:21 11.00 (Bet365) 18:20 10.00 (Bet365) 09:11 5.50 (Bet365) 09:22 6.00 (William Hill) 09:40 5.50 (Bet365) 12:25 6.00 (William Hill) 13:18 5.50 (Bet365) 13:57 6.00 (Betfred) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 OFR 71 RPR 83 — typical handicap number. Form 3.0/10 17470 — won early then tailed off. Connections 7.0/10 Palmer 18% 14d hot, jockey Elo 1680, trainer Elo 1679 both elite for grade. Fitness 3.0/10 206 days off, but wind surgery and Palmer's record with returners helps. Trip 6.0/10 Dandy Man sire, perfect for 5-6f. Pace 5.0/10 Tongue tie suggests handled patiently. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 3, fine. Equipment 7.0/10 Tongue tie plus wind-op comeback — explicit equipment/medical angle. Weight 4.0/10 133lb on a hold-up type returning. Value 6.0/10 Likely under-rated given Palmer's first-time-after-wind record. Σ Summary 51.0/100 Big-yard wind-op comeback off long break — feasible improver. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1524.7 (11 runs, 2 wins, 18.2%) Jockey 1680.0 (350 runs, 40 wins, 11.4%) Trainer 1678.7 (4389 runs, 682 wins, 15.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 5r 1w 20% A/E 0.92 (fair) Jockey × trainer 3r 1w 33% A/E 2.46 (value) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 42r 11w 26% A/E 1.34 (value) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 3449r 364w 11% A/E 0.86 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 3r 1w 33% A/E 3.48 (value) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 733r 86w 12% A/E 0.95 (fair) Past form (last 12 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 5/12 5/1 1.25L 71 82 Jack Nicholls Prominent - lost second over 1f out - outpaced inside final furlong(op 9/2) 2025-10-24 Doncaster 6f Soft Cla 10/14 17/2 0.10L 72 61 Cieren Fallon Took keen hold - never better than midfield(op 9/1 tchd 8/1) 2025-09-30 Ayr 6f Soft Cla 7/13 18/1 2.00L 74 65 Jason Hart Prominent towards near side - drifted left and weakened from over 1f out(op 20/1 tchd 22/1) 2025-09-20 Chester 5½f Soft Cla 4/9 12/1 0.50L 75 76 Joe Leavy Towards rear - some headway 2f out - kept on final 110yds - not reach leaders(op 14/1 tchd 10/1) 2025-09-08 Windsor 6f Good Cla 7/12 10/1 0.50L 76 68 Billy Loughnane Towards rear - some headway when short of room over 1f out - no impression final furlong(tchd 9/1 and tchd 11/1) 2025-07-24 Doncaster 6f Good Cla 1/10 14/1 won 69 76 Liam Wright Took keen hold - prominent - ridden and led when hung left over 1f out - joined inside final furlong - just held on (trainer said - regarding the apparent improvement in form - that gelding appreciated a return to slower ground)(op 20/1 tchd 12/1) 2025-07-05 Nottingham 6f Good To F Cla 9/10 14/1 0.05L 72 44 Neil Callan Slightly awkward start - took keen hold - in touch with leaders - outpaced over 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 12/1) 2025-05-22 Haydock 7f Good To F Cla 7/11 22/1 0.30L 74 68 Richard Kingscote Midfield - in touch with leaders when outpaced 3f out - kept on but no impression inside final furlong(op 28/1) 2024-09-15 Curragh (IRE) 6½f Good — 14/22 50/1 2.00L 75 61 Oisin Murphy Midfield up the centre - headway over 1f out - soon no extra(op 33/1) 2024-07-22 Windsor 6f Good To F Cla 9/10 11/2 1.00L 76 51 Oisin Murphy Slowly into stride - in rear - brief headway 2f out - weakened over 1f out (jockey said colt was slowly away)(op 10/3) 2024-06-17 Chepstow 6f Good To S Cla 1/5 9/1 won — 75 Joe Leavy In rear but in touch with leaders - went third halfway - pushed along over 2f out - challenging inside final furlong - led inside final 110yds - just did enough(op 13/2) 2024-05-28 Leicester 6f Good To S Cla 5/9 14/1 4.25L — 58 James Doyle Slowly into stride - soon recovered and in touch with leaders - outpaced and lost position halfway - edged left over 1f out - no telling impression(Mkt1: op 16/1; Mkt2 op 12/1 tchd 11/1) Comment Prominent - lost second over 1f out - outpaced inside final furlong(op 9/2) Finishing result Position 5 SP 5/1 (6.000) Beaten (L) 1.25 Total beaten 2.25 OR after 71 In-running comment Prominent - lost second over 1f out - outpaced inside final furlong(op 9/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10. CALL ME BETTY (IRE) (#1 · Σ 47.0) 4yo F · Draw 2 Connections Jockey Mark Winn Trainer Michael Dods Owner D Stone Mrs C Dods Pedigree Sire Sands Of Mali (FR) Dam Ariena (IRE) Damsire Arcano Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 13.00 (Bet365) 16:21 15.00 (7Bet) 17:00 13.00 (Bet365) 17:21 15.00 (Bet365) 09:11 13.00 (Bet365) 11:27 15.00 (Bet365) 11:33 13.00 (Bet365) 11:50 15.00 (Bet365) 12:45 13.00 (Bet365) 13:49 15.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 4.0/10 OFR 73 mid-pack but RPR 82 below the top tier (best 91). Form 4.0/10 Form 3216-0 — placed runs but trailed in last completed start. Connections 3.0/10 Michael Dods 27r 1w (4%) 14d is cold; Mark Winn rides off claim, jockey Elo 1582. Fitness 6.0/10 28 days off — middling, no freshness concerns but not race-sharp. Trip 6.0/10 By Sands Of Mali, bred for 5-6f, distance fine. Pace 5.0/10 Closer type in race with patchy front-end speed. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 2 of 13 at Carlisle 5f straight, neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 4.0/10 Top of handicap on 135lb off OFR 73. Value 5.0/10 Hard to make a strong case but not obviously overbet either. Σ Summary 47.0/100 Capable mid-pack handicapper, not standing out today. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1553.8 (10 runs, 2 wins, 20.0%) Jockey 1581.5 (1286 runs, 136 wins, 10.6%) Trainer 1580.7 (5160 runs, 596 wins, 11.6%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 41r 7w 17% A/E 1.37 (value) Jockey × trainer 18r 4w 22% A/E 2.48 (value) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 643r 58w 9% A/E 0.70 (negative) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 160r 28w 17% A/E 1.07 (value) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 14r 2w 14% A/E 0.96 (fair) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 433r 68w 16% A/E 1.08 (value) Past form (last 11 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 1/12 10/1 won 73 82 Mark Winn Made all - ridden 2f out - edged left inside final furlong - kept on gamely (trainer had no explanation for the apparent improvement in form; filly was routine tested)(op 14/1) 2026-04-20 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 14/14 9/1 1.75L 75 31 Connor Beasley Pressed leader - weakened from 2f out(op 10/1 and tchd 11/1) 2025-11-20 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 6/8 9/4F 0.50L 75 51 Shane Gray Disputed lead - led narrowly halfway - headed over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 11/4) 2025-10-02 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 1/7 2/1 won 67 77 Connor Beasley Made all - set steady pace - ridden and faced challenge over 1f out - clear with one other inside final furlong - ran on(op 5/2) 2025-09-25 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 2/9 15/2 0.75L 67 72 Connor Beasley Pressed leader - led 2f out - headed but went clear with winner inside final furlong - no extra towards finish(op 13/2 tchd 8/1) 2025-09-15 Thirsk 7f Soft Cla 3/10 9/2 0.75L 67 69 Connor Beasley Led - switched right and towards near side over 2f out - ridden and headed over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong(op 11/2) 2025-08-11 Ayr 7f Good Cla 2/8 14/1 2.25L 65 69 Connor Beasley In touch with leaders - pressed leaders over 2f out - led over 1f out - headed but went clear with winner inside final furlong - weakened towards finish(Mkt1: op 12/1 tchd 11/1; Mkt2 tchd 16/1) 2025-07-23 Doncaster 7f Good To S Cla 9/12 9/1 0.05L 66 56 Sean Kirrane Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - weakened over 1f out 2025-06-23 Wolverhampton 7f Standard Cla 1/8 13/8F won — 66 Connor Beasley Pressed leader - ridden over 2f out - led inside final 110yds - just did enough(op 6/4 tchd 11/8 and tchd 15/8) 2025-06-06 Thirsk 7f Good Cla 2/11 10/1 3.50L — 66 Connor Beasley Prominent - hung left over 1f out - outpaced inside final furlong - no match for winner(op 18/1) 2025-05-01 Redcar 6f Good To F Cla 7/10 14/1 0.75L — 49 Joanna Mason In rear throughout(op 16/1 and tchd 18/1) Comment Made all - ridden 2f out - edged left inside final furlong - kept on gamely (trainer had no explanation for the apparent improvement in form; filly was routine tested)(op 14/1) Finishing result Position 1 SP 10/1 (11.000) Beaten (L) 0.00 Total beaten 0.00 OR after 73 In-running comment Made all - ridden 2f out - edged left inside final furlong - kept on gamely (trainer had no explanation for the apparent improvement in form; filly was routine tested)(op 14/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 11. LIGHTNING GALAXY (IRE) (#11 · Σ 47.0) 4yo G · Draw 4 Connections Jockey Rhys Elliott Trainer Michael Dods Owner Denton Hall Racing Ltd Pedigree Sire Lightning Spear (GB) Dam Stars In The Sky (GB) Damsire Galileo Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 26.00 (Bet365) 17:41 29.00 (Bet365) 20:22 31.00 (7Bet) 03:02 34.00 (Midnite) 09:11 36.00 (7Bet) 11:17 34.00 (Boyle Sports) 11:23 29.00 (William Hill) 11:31 26.00 (Bet365) 12:10 29.00 (Bet365) 12:16 26.00 (Bet365) 12:51 29.00 (Bet365) 13:28 26.00 (Bet365) 13:43 29.00 (Bet365) 13:49 26.00 (Unibet) 13:57 29.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 OFR 63 RPR 85 — RPR appeals but never won. Form 2.0/10 5270-9 with a maiden tag. Connections 3.0/10 Dods 4% 14d cold; apprentice Elliott jockey Elo 1465. Fitness 7.0/10 16 days since last run. Trip 6.0/10 Lightning Spear sire fine over the trip. Pace 4.0/10 No defined pace edge. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 4. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 6.0/10 Light enough on 125lb. Value 4.0/10 Hype around RPR may overprice it. Σ Summary 47.0/100 Yet-to-win maiden from a cold yard — likely passes again. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1467.0 (9 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1464.7 (576 runs, 33 wins, 5.7%) Trainer 1580.7 (5160 runs, 596 wins, 11.6%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 22r 1w 5% A/E 0.55 (negative) Jockey × trainer 120r 6w 5% A/E 0.49 (negative) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 643r 58w 9% A/E 0.70 (negative) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 180r 23w 13% A/E 0.99 (fair) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 9r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 5622r 745w 13% A/E 0.89 (fair) Past form (last 10 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 9/12 28/1 1.50L 63 82 Rhys Elliott Midfield - switched right over 2f out - weakened from over 1f out(op 25/1) 2026-05-02 Thirsk 1m Good To F Cla 9/9 12/1 2.50L 65 54 Connor Beasley Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - weakened over 1f out(op 11/1 tchd 10/1) 2025-11-07 Newcastle (AW 1m Standard Cla 10/10 28/1 4.50L 68 54 Sean Kirrane In touch with leaders - weakened from over 1f out(op 22/1) 2025-08-16 Doncaster 1m Good To F Cla 7/7 11/2 1.00L 68 55 Connor Beasley Prominent - weakened quickly over 1f out (vet said gelding was lame on his left-fore)(op 5/1) 2025-07-15 Thirsk 1m Good To F Cla 2/7 11/2 0.50L 67 70 Rhys Elliott In touch with leaders - outpaced over 1f out - rallied and pressed winner inside final 110yds - kept on(op 5/1 tchd 9/2) 2025-06-18 Hamilton 1m½f Good Cla 5/10 14/1 1.25L 69 64 Connor Beasley In touch with leaders - prominent 2f out - weakened gradually from over 1f out(op 10/1) 2025-05-30 Haydock 7f Good Cla 9/12 22/1 0.10L 70 57 David Nolan Midfield - outpaced over 2f out - no telling impression(tchd 25/1) 2025-05-01 Ayr 6f Good To F Cla 2/8 5/1 1.75L — 61 Connor Beasley Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - lost position briefly over 3f out - rallied and went second final 110yds - kept on(op 9/2) 2024-08-28 Musselburgh 7f Good Cla 7/9 11/4 0.75L — 64 Paul Mulrennan Midfield - no impression from over 2f out 2024-08-13 Hamilton 6f Soft Cla 2/11 9/1 1.50L — 71 Connor Beasley Slowly away - in rear and outpaced - headway from over 2f out - led 1f out - headed inside final furlong - kept on but no extra towards finish(tchd 12/1) Comment Midfield - switched right over 2f out - weakened from over 1f out(op 25/1) Finishing result Position 9 SP 28/1 (29.000) Beaten (L) 1.50 Total beaten 7.50 OR after 63 In-running comment Midfield - switched right over 2f out - weakened from over 1f out(op 25/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 12. SURPRISED (GB) (#6 · Σ 40.0) 4yo F · Draw 13 Connections Jockey Paul Mulrennan Trainer Bryan Smart Owner The Wheel Of Fortune Partnership Pedigree Sire Ulysses (IRE) Dam Augusta Ada (GB) Damsire Byron Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 15.00 (Bet365) 16:01 19.00 (CopyBet) 20:22 21.00 (William Hill) 20:41 23.00 (Midnite) 09:11 41.00 (Midnite) 09:40 31.00 (7Bet) 09:42 29.00 (Betano) 09:48 26.00 (Bet365) 10:40 29.00 (Bet365) 10:54 26.00 (Bet365) 11:50 29.00 (Bet365) 13:18 26.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 2.0/10 RPR 79 — bottom of the field on ratings. Form 3.0/10 285-06 — beaten 6 lengths last time and never threatened. Connections 3.0/10 Smart 0/9 14d, RTF 33 — cold. Fitness 7.0/10 Only 7 days since last run, sharp. Trip 5.0/10 Ulysses sire — borderline for 5f minimum trip. Pace 4.0/10 Held up in a race likely to lack much pace. Draw 4.0/10 Stall 13 widest — slight concern on a draw bias. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 4.0/10 132lb off OFR 70. Value 3.0/10 Hard to back on numbers. Σ Summary 40.0/100 Outclassed and from a yard out of form — quiet runner expected. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1463.0 (6 runs, 1 wins, 16.7%) Jockey 1508.4 (8375 runs, 1024 wins, 12.2%) Trainer 1557.2 (2770 runs, 282 wins, 10.2%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 593r 69w 12% A/E 0.81 (negative) Jockey × trainer 464r 69w 15% A/E 1.00 (fair) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 278r 36w 13% A/E 1.08 (value) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 758r 90w 12% A/E 0.80 (negative) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 17r 3w 18% A/E 1.19 (value) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 303r 31w 10% A/E 0.92 (fair) Past form (last 8 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 3/12 25/1 0.50L 70 84 Paul Mulrennan Midfield - headway towards near side over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 22/1) 2026-05-11 Catterick 6f Good Cla 6/8 66/1 0.50L 70 74 Paul Mulrennan In rear - switched right and kept on inside final furlong - never dangerous(op 40/1) 2026-04-23 Beverley 7½f Good To F Cla 10/10 28/1 6.00L 74 50 Paul Mulrennan Midfield - weakened from 2f out(op 22/1) 2025-07-15 Nottingham 1m½f Good Cla 5/5 100/30 0.30L 78 65 Callum Rodriguez Slowly away - always behind (jockey said filly never travelled)(op 7/2 tchd 4/1) 2025-06-15 Hamilton 1m1f Good To S Cla 8/8 7/1 2.75L 80 57 Kevin Stott Took keen hold - led - headed 3f out - soon short of room - weakened over 1f out (jockey said filly weakened quickly; vet had nothing to report)(op 13/2 tchd 6/1 and tchd 15/2) 2025-05-12 Catterick 7f Good To F Cla 2/10 5/4F 1.25L — 71 Callum Rodriguez Took keen hold - led early - soon prominent - ran green when challenging from 2f out - kept on and went second towards finish(tchd 11/10 and tchd 11/8) 2024-09-18 Beverley 7½f Good Cla 1/11 5/2F won — 76 Callum Rodriguez In touch with leaders - headway over 2f out - drifted right but led inside final furlong - ran on well final 110yds - readily(op 9/4 tchd 11/4) 2024-08-25 Beverley 7½f Good To F Cla 4/5 5/1 0.20L — 70 P J McDonald Dwelt start and ducked left start - in rear - soon pushed along and ran green - headway over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - nearest finish(op 9/2 tchd 4/1) Comment Midfield - headway towards near side over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 22/1) Finishing result Position 3 SP 25/1 (26.000) Beaten (L) 0.50 Total beaten 0.75 OR after 70 In-running comment Midfield - headway towards near side over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 22/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 13. MAGIC BOY (NR) (#NR · Σ 46.0) 4yo G · 134lb · Draw 10 Connections Jockey Faye McManoman Trainer Nigel Tinkler (Langton, N Yorks) Owner Rakjam Ltd Breeder Gestut Etzean Trainer 14d 3/26 (12%) DOB 2022-03-28 Pedigree Sire Acclamation (GB) Dam Midnight (GER) Damsire Amaron Form / ratings Form string 32381- Last run (days) 195 OFR 72 RPR 83 TS 68 Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% All bookmaker prices Bet365 - (-) · EW 4/5 William Hill - (-) · EW 4/5 Coral - (-) · EW 4/5 Betfred - (-) · EW 4/5 Boyle Sports - (-) · EW 4/5 Ladbrokes - (-) · EW 4/5 Unibet - (-) · EW 4/5 BetTom - (-) · EW 3/4 Bet Victor - (-) · EW 4/5 10 Bet - (-) · EW 3/4 BetMGM - (-) · EW 4/5 Grosvenor Sports - (-) · EW 4/5 Virgin Bet - (-) · EW 4/5 talkSPORT BET - (-) · EW 4/5 BetWright - (-) · EW 3/4 LiveScore Bet - (-) · EW 4/5 Betano - (-) · EW 4/5 Dragon Bet - (-) · EW 4/5 CopyBet - (-) · EW 3/4 PricedUp Bet - (-) · EW 3/4 BetAhoy - (-) · EW 3/4 Spreadex - (-) · EW 4/5 BresBet - (-) · EW 3/4 BestOdds - (-) · EW 4/5 7Bet - (-) · EW 3/4 Star Sports - (-) · EW 3/4 Midnite - (-) · EW 4/5 SportingIndex - (-) · EW 4/5 Quinn Bet - (-) · EW 4/5 Betfair Exchange - (-) Best-odds movement 14:41 5.50 (Bet365) 16:01 6.00 (William Hill) 20:22 6.50 (Bet365) 20:41 7.00 (Midnite) 09:11 15.00 (Coral) 09:34 17.00 (Coral) 12:25 15.00 (Bet365) 12:45 13.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 OFR 72, RPR 83 — middle of the pack on raw numbers. Form 6.0/10 32381 finished with a win before layoff. Connections 4.0/10 Tinkler 13% 14d adequate, RTF 30 suggests yard not fully wound up. Fitness 2.0/10 195 days off — strong negative. Trip 6.0/10 Acclamation/Amaron pedigree fine for 5-6f. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-division runner. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 10, no major bias. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 4.0/10 134lb after a 195d break is tough. Value 4.0/10 Likely overbet on last-time form despite layoff. Σ Summary 46.0/100 Last-run win attractive but six-and-a-half month gap is the dealbreaker. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1562.5 (7 runs, 1 wins, 14.3%) Jockey 1480.9 (1999 runs, 134 wins, 6.7%) Trainer 1498.4 (3621 runs, 347 wins, 9.6%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 6f no data Jockey @ 6f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 66r 12w 18% A/E 1.37 (value) Jockey × trainer 1133r 98w 9% A/E 0.88 (fair) Trainer @ 6f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 270r 34w 13% A/E 0.98 (fair) Sire progeny @ 6f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 4643r 556w 12% A/E 0.83 (negative) Dam progeny @ 6f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 4r 1w 25% A/E 3.22 (value) Damsire grand @ 6f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 4r 1w 25% A/E 3.22 (value) Spotlight Has led but was ridden more patiently when doing well to get up close home at Redcar (7f, good) in November, considering he was slightly checked in his run; up just 2lb in only his third handicap and has more to come with this stiff test at the trip unlikely to be a problem. Comment Arrived late to win at Redcar (7f) in November; up 2lb; has more to come this year ============================================================================== HEAD-TO-HEAD (7 past meetings between today's runners) ============================================================================== 2026-05-18 · Carlisle · 6f · Class 5 · Good To Soft Watch Racing TV Live Handicap 1 Call Me Betty (IRE) won SP 10/1 2 Fan Mail (GB) 0.30L SP 7/1 3 Surprised (GB) 0.50L SP 25/1 4 Raft Up (IRE) 0.20L SP 5/1 5 Ran Amok (IRE) 1.25L SP 5/1 6 Impressor (IRE) 2.50L SP 11/1 7 Mr Dreamseller (GB) 0.20L SP 17/2 8 Mount Ruapehu (IRE) 1.00L SP 10/1 9 Lightning Galaxy (IRE) 1.50L SP 28/1 10 Iris Dancer (GB) 0.50L SP 6/1 11 Invincible Ruby (IRE) 0.50L SP 33/1 12 Counting Cards (GB) 1.00L SP 9/2F 2026-05-01 · Newcastle (AW) · 6f · Class 5 · Standard Ride For Tommie Jakes Racing Club Memorial Handicap 1 Raft Up (IRE) won SP 11/4 12 Invincible Ruby (IRE) 0.50L SP 33/1 2026-04-18 · Thirsk · 6f · Class 5 · Good Nick Simpson Cannot Be 60 Handicap 10 Impressor (IRE) 0.75L SP 14/1 11 Iris Dancer (GB) 0.20L SP 25/1 12 Mr Dreamseller (GB) 0.05L SP 8/1 2025-10-24 · Doncaster · 6f · Class 4 · Soft Final One Standing By William Hill Handicap 6 Impressor (IRE) 0.50L SP 16/1 10 Ran Amok (IRE) 0.10L SP 17/2 2025-09-29 · Hamilton · 6f · Class 5 · Soft Sharing Angels Amateur Jockeys' Handicap 5 Impressor (IRE) 1.00L SP 5/2F 7 Iris Dancer (GB) 3.75L SP 10/1 2025-07-25 · York · 6f · Class 4 · Good Tomahawk Restaurants Handicap 20 Iris Dancer (GB) 0.50L SP 33/1 21 Impressor (IRE) 0.30L SP 80/1 2025-05-12 · Catterick · 7f · Class 5 · Good To Firm Racing Welfare Supporting Mental Health Awareness Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands C & D) (GBB Race) 2 Surprised (GB) 1.25L SP 5/4F 3 Invincible Ruby (IRE) 0.30L SP 16/1 ============================================================================== AI RACE VERDICT ============================================================================== Pace scenario: Modest pace expected with several hold-up types; Mount Ruapehu and Mr Dreamseller likely to push along, suiting pressers like Raft Up. High draws on Carlisle's straight 5f are mildly favoured but not decisive. Narrative: Competitive Class 5 sprint handicap where Raft Up arrives in the best form of the field — won last time off 70, jumped 3lb but still appears handicapped to compete and runs for the hot Harriet Bethell yard (trainer Elo 1751). Mr Dreamseller has the second-best RPR and won two back for the Barrons. Mount Ruapehu is the most reliable on form figures (113128) but down the weights. The classier types (Fan Mail RPR 91, Counting Cards 88, Invincible Ruby 88) all bring poor recent form, while Magic Boy and Ran Amok are reappearing after 195+ day breaks. Recommended: Raft Up Won last time off 70, 17d since, runs for the highest trainer-Elo yard in the race (Harriet Bethell 1751) and second-highest horse Elo (1654). Form trending the right way (32811) when the bulk of the field is going backwards or returning cold. Alternative: Mr Dreamseller RPR 87 (joint second-highest in race), won two starts ago, wears headgear and pops up fresh enough at 16d. Drawn 5 in a stall with no obvious disadvantage. ============================================================================== Generated 2026-05-19 13:41 UTC · HorseRacingValue.com · race rac_11944088