============================================================================== RACE: Carlisle ? · 2026-05-18 Racing TV Handicap Good · Flat · Turf ============================================================================== Status FINISHED ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. BLUE LAKOTA (IRE) (#9 · Σ 70.0) 4yo G · Draw 2 Connections Jockey Kevin Stott Trainer Kevin Ryan Owner Mrs Jennifer E Pallister Pedigree Sire Sioux Nation (USA) Dam Gwen Lady Byron (IRE) Damsire Dandy Man Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 4.33 (Bet365) 15:01 4.50 (Bet365) 09:11 6.00 (Coral) 09:32 6.50 (Coral) 10:05 6.00 (Bet365) 10:25 6.50 (Betfred) 10:52 7.00 (Coral) 12:04 6.50 (William Hill) 12:39 7.00 (Betfred) 13:12 7.50 (Coral) 13:21 8.00 (Spreadex) 13:26 9.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 8.0/10 RPR 96 — second highest in field, behind only the long-absent Imperial Guard. Form 8.0/10 216342 — five in the frame from six, including a recent win. Connections 7.0/10 Ryan yard 3/29 14d (10%), top jockey Stott (Elo 1626), strong trainer Elo 1642. Fitness 6.0/10 41 days — slightly longer than ideal but not damaging. Trip 7.0/10 Sioux Nation progeny + form at 5f. Pace 6.0/10 Versatile pace tactics. Draw 7.0/10 Stall 2 — favourable at Carlisle 5f. Equipment 6.0/10 Wind surgery Sept 2024 long settled — established post-op form. Weight 7.0/10 124lb, attractive mark relative to running RPR. Value 8.0/10 Form/class blend at light weight is hard to fault — should be market leader. Σ Summary 70.0/100 Strongest blend of form, class and connections. Verdict Strong contender ELO Horse 1597.8 (23 runs, 5 wins, 21.7%) Jockey 1625.9 (5003 runs, 685 wins, 13.7%) Trainer 1642.3 (6760 runs, 878 wins, 13.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 151r 25w 17% A/E 0.99 (fair) Jockey × trainer 1554r 243w 16% A/E 0.95 (fair) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 414r 59w 14% A/E 0.96 (fair) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 451r 75w 17% A/E 0.94 (fair) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 50r 7w 14% A/E 1.11 (value) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 452r 62w 14% A/E 0.95 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 10/10 7/1 11.00L 64 88 Kevin Stott Prominent - disputed lead after 1f - lost position under 2f out - soon weakened(op 6/1 tchd 8/1) 2026-04-07 Southwell (AW 5f Standard Cla 2/8 7/2 1.50L 74 75 Jack Callan Dwelt start - in rear - some headway then waiting for room 2f out - headway from over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 3/1) 2026-03-19 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 4/6 11/5F 0.30L 74 78 Kevin Stott In touch with leaders - headway from over 2f out - led over 1f out - headed but pressed leaders inside final furlong - weakened towards finish(op 7/4) 2026-02-24 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 3/12 8/1 0.50L 74 80 Kevin Stott Took keen hold - pressed leaders - led narrowly after 2f - headed final 110yds - kept on(op 15/2 tchd 7/1) 2026-02-11 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 6/11 11/1 0.30L 74 74 Jack Nicholls Dwelt start - took keen hold - held up in rear - headway over 1f out - no impression(op 10/1 tchd 9/1) 2026-01-16 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/9 10/1 won 72 79 Jack Nicholls Made all - shaken up when faced challenge over 1f out - ridden inside final furlong - kept on well inside final 110yds - always doing enough(op 8/1) 2026-01-01 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 2/12 18/1 0.50L 71 74 Warren Fentiman In touch with leaders - headway over 2f out - soon pressed leaders - led over 1f out - soon hung right - headed inside final furlong - lost second inside final 110yds - kept on(tchd 16/1) 2025-11-18 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 7/12 11/2 0.50L 71 60 Jack Callan Prominent - pressed leader from over 2f out - weakened from over 1f out(tchd 5/1) 2025-11-07 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 1/14 9/2 won 67 74 Jack Callan In touch with leaders - headway to lead inside final furlong - kept on final 110yds - faced challenge towards finish - just did enough (trainer's rep could offer no explanation for the apparent improvement in form) 2025-09-21 Southwell (AW 5f Standard Cla 6/14 12/1 0.75L 69 56 Mason Paetel Prominent on far side of group - lost second over 1f out - weakened quickly inside final furlong(op 16/1) 2025-08-01 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 8/12 12/1 0.75L 71 60 Shane Gray In touch with leaders - challenging 2f out - weakened gradually inside final furlong(op 16/1) 2025-07-15 Thirsk 5f Good To S Cla 6/7 40/1 4.00L 67 52 Tom Eaves Prominent - weakened over 1f out(tchd 50/1) 2025-06-07 Musselburgh 5f Good Cla 10/10 33/1 1.50L 72 42 Shane Gray Dwelt start - always behind(op 28/1 tchd 40/1) 2025-04-25 Doncaster 5f Good To F Cla 8/8 8/1 4.00L 73 40 Tom Eaves Took keen hold - pressed leader - lost ground quickly over 1f out - unbalanced and weakened inside final furlong (vet said gelding lost right-fore shoe)(op 9/1) 2025-03-15 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 9/11 12/1 0.30L 73 65 Tom Eaves Raced in second - weakened over 1f out(op 11/1 tchd 14/1) 2025-01-14 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/8 100/30 won 71 74 Mason Paetel Took keen hold - made virtually all - faced challenges from over 1f out - kept on well(op 4/1) 2024-12-28 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 3/10 11/4F 0.30L 71 72 Warren Fentiman Dwelt start - took keen hold - towards rear - not clear run repeatedly from over 2f out - headway and went third inside final 110yds - kept on (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run approaching final furlong)(op 9/4 tchd 10/3) 2024-12-19 Chelmsford (A 5f Standard Cla 1/8 10/11F won 66 73 Warren Fentiman Towards rear - switched right and headway under 2f out - pressed leaders over 1f out - ridden to lead inside final furlong - kept on well(op Evens tchd 11/10) 2024-12-12 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/9 5/6F won 60 72 Tom Eaves Pressed leader - bumped soon after start - led after 1f - pushed along and went clear over 1f out - ran on(op 10/11 tchd Evens) 2024-11-22 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 2/11 9/2 0.75L 57 62 Tom Eaves Prominent - led after 1f - against near rail from over 2f out - headed inside final 110yds - kept on(op 15/2) Comment Prominent - disputed lead after 1f - lost position under 2f out - soon weakened(op 6/1 tchd 8/1) Finishing result Position 10 SP 7/1 (8.000) Beaten (L) 11.00 Total beaten 21.50 OR after 64 In-running comment Prominent - disputed lead after 1f - lost position under 2f out - soon weakened(op 6/1 tchd 8/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2. SPEEDING BULLET (IRE) (#4 · Σ 65.0) 5yo G · Draw 9 Connections Jockey David Nolan Trainer Paul Midgley Owner Slaters Arms Racing And Ged Shields Pedigree Sire Inns Of Court (IRE) Dam Shoshoni Wind (GB) Damsire Sleeping Indian Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 13.00 (Bet365) 09:11 15.00 (BetTom) 09:40 11.00 (Bet365) 10:17 12.00 (Bet365) 10:31 11.00 (Bet365) 10:40 12.00 (Bet365) 10:46 11.00 (Bet365) 10:52 12.00 (Bet365) 10:58 13.00 (Bet365) 12:04 12.00 (Bet365) 12:29 13.00 (Unibet) 12:35 12.00 (Bet365) 13:08 13.00 (Coral) 13:21 15.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 85, OFR 69 — fair handicap profile. Form 7.0/10 1422-0 — three placed runs in the previous cycle. Connections 8.0/10 Midgley yard 21% 14d strike rate, RTF 47, Nolan competent jockey. Fitness 8.0/10 17 days, near-ideal gap. Trip 7.0/10 Inns Of Court progeny — 5f sweet spot. Pace 6.0/10 Tracks the pace, ideal tactical type for 5f. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 9, slightly wide but not damaging. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 6.0/10 129lb, comfortable mid-handicap. Value 7.0/10 Hot yard and consistent form often under-priced for casuals. Σ Summary 65.0/100 Hot yard + consistent placed form makes him the strongest alternative. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1548.6 (19 runs, 2 wins, 10.5%) Jockey 1573.1 (4163 runs, 449 wins, 10.8%) Trainer 1624.1 (3421 runs, 409 wins, 12.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 164r 14w 9% A/E 0.78 (negative) Jockey × trainer 355r 37w 10% A/E 0.81 (negative) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 157r 18w 11% A/E 1.03 (fair) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 430r 39w 9% A/E 0.74 (negative) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 14r 3w 21% A/E 1.47 (value) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 227r 21w 9% A/E 0.88 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 7/10 11/1 0.30L 69 84 David Nolan Never better than midfield(op 12/1 tchd 14/1) 2026-05-01 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 11/12 12/1 5.50L 70 32 David Nolan In touch with leaders - weakened quickly from 2f out - lost touch inside final furlong(tchd 11/1) 2025-09-05 Haydock 5f Good Cla 2/14 11/1 1.50L 69 76 Mark Winn Midfield - headway over 1f out - went second inside final furlong - kept on(op 12/1 tchd 10/1) 2025-07-28 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 2/9 8/1 0.30L 68 75 David Nolan Midfield - headway from over 2f out - led 1f out - hung right inside final furlong - headed but kept on inside final 110yds(op 11/1 tchd 7/1) 2025-06-27 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 4/10 12/1 0.20L 69 70 David Nolan In touch with leaders - pressed leader from 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 10/1) 2025-06-09 Pontefract 6f Good Cla 1/9 28/1 won 67 73 David Nolan Raced wide - in touch with leaders - hung left but led over 1f out - soon ridden - all out (trainer's rep said - regarding the apparent improvement in form - that gelding had benefitted from the drop in trip from 1m to 6f) 2025-05-13 Beverley 1m½f Good To F Cla 10/12 25/1 2.75L 69 55 David Nolan Midfield - weakened gradually inside final furlong(op 22/1 tchd 28/1) 2025-04-23 Catterick 7f Good To F Cla 7/9 18/1 0.75L 71 65 P J McDonald Midfield early - towards rear after 1f - hung left when no impression over 1f out(op 12/1) 2024-10-23 Kempton (AW) 7f Standard Cla 8/9 4/1 0.50L 73 58 Oisin Murphy Raced wide - towards rear - weakened over 1f out(tchd 9/2) 2024-09-12 Epsom 1m½f Heavy Cla 5/9 4/1 1.25L 75 74 Joe Leavy Prominent - lost position gradually towards near side 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 5/1) 2024-08-14 Kempton (AW) 1m Standard Cla 8/11 14/1 1.00L 79 77 Joe Leavy In touch with leaders - weakened gradually final 110yds(op 18/1) 2024-06-21 Newmarket (Ju 1m Good Cla 6/6 7/1 0.75L 82 73 Cieren Fallon Prominent - weakened over 1f out(op 13/2) 2024-06-09 Goodwood 7f Good Cla 5/8 13/2 0.50L 82 74 Alec Voikhansky Dwelt start - in touch with leaders on inner - no impression from over 1f out - lost fourth final 110yds(op 11/2) 2024-05-31 Epsom 7f Good To S Cla 9/12 4/1 1.25L 83 67 Silvestre De Sousa Took keen hold - in touch with leaders on outer - steady headway halfway - pressed leader over 2f out - hung left and short of room over 1f out - soon weakened (jockey said gelding hung left-handed in later stages of race) 2023-11-08 Kempton (AW) 1m Standard Cla 4/9 7/2 1.25L 83 83 Oisin Murphy Towards rear - ridden and headway over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - not reach leaders(op 4/1) 2023-10-25 Newmarket 7f Soft Cla 1/11 4/1 won 79 86 Oisin Murphy Towards rear - pushed along and headway over 2f out - went second and ridden over 1f out - challenging and edged left inside final furlong - led post 2023-10-07 Redcar 7f Good Cla 3/12 5/1 0.75L 79 83 Hollie Doyle Prominent - ridden from over 1f out - kept on(op 11/2) 2023-09-12 Leicester 7f Soft Cla 5/11 13/2 0.30L — 82 William Buick Led narrowly - headed and no extra final 110yds(op 7/1 tchd 11/2) 2023-08-25 Ffos Las 7½f Good To S Cla 2/9 22/1 0.30L — 78 Thore Hammer Hanse Prominent - led under 2f out - headed inside final furlong - kept on - just failed(tchd 25/1) 2023-07-13 Doncaster 6f Good Cla 10/12 12/1 0.50L — 57 Pat Dobbs Slowly into stride and ducked left start - always behind Comment Never better than midfield(op 12/1 tchd 14/1) Finishing result Position 7 SP 11/1 (12.000) Beaten (L) 0.30 Total beaten 7.75 OR after 69 In-running comment Never better than midfield(op 12/1 tchd 14/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3. DC COGENT (GB) (#8 · Σ 62.0) 4yo G · Draw 5 Connections Jockey Paul Mulrennan Trainer Bryan Smart Owner J R Dwyer And B Smart Pedigree Sire Washington DC (IRE) Dam Analytical (GB) Damsire Lethal Force Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 6.50 (Bet365) 15:01 7.00 (Bet365) 09:11 7.50 (Bet365) 09:16 8.00 (Coral) 09:40 7.50 (William Hill) 12:04 7.00 (William Hill) 12:29 7.50 (Unibet) 12:45 7.00 (Bet365) 12:58 7.50 (Coral) 13:26 7.00 (Unibet) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 85, TS 83 — solid mid-pack class. Form 6.0/10 -36443 — five consecutive in-the-frame minor placings. Connections 4.0/10 Smart yard 0/9 14d, Mulrennan veteran rider. Fitness 9.0/10 Just 9 days — fresh and well. Trip 7.0/10 Washington DC progeny — sprinter profile. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-pack closer. Draw 7.0/10 Stall 5 — central, decent at Carlisle 5f. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 7.0/10 126lb, sliding down handicap. Value 6.0/10 Consistent placer often runs better than market suggests. Σ Summary 62.0/100 Consistent place-getter with TS support but lacks a finishing blow. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1580.5 (15 runs, 1 wins, 6.7%) Jockey 1508.4 (8375 runs, 1024 wins, 12.2%) Trainer 1557.2 (2770 runs, 282 wins, 10.2%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 593r 69w 12% A/E 0.81 (negative) Jockey × trainer 464r 69w 15% A/E 1.00 (fair) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 278r 36w 13% A/E 1.08 (value) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 251r 27w 11% A/E 0.99 (fair) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 20r 2w 10% A/E 0.44 (negative) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 116r 16w 14% A/E 0.94 (fair) Past form (last 17 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 6/10 4/1F 0.50L 66 85 Paul Mulrennan Dwelt start - in rear - headway when not clear run against rail over 1f out - kept on - never dangerous(op 6/1) 2026-05-09 Nottingham 5f Good Cla 3/9 5/1 0.10L 66 81 Paul Mulrennan Held up in rear - steady headway on near side of group from 2f out - outpaced final 110yds(tchd 6/1) 2026-04-13 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 4/9 100/30F 0.50L 67 68 Paul Mulrennan Took keen hold - prominent - led over 1f out - headed and weakened inside final furlong(tchd 3/1 and tchd 7/2) 2026-03-10 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 4/11 5/1 0.50L 68 71 Paul Mulrennan Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - dropped to midfield after 1f - headway over 1f out - went fourth inside final 110yds(op 11/2 tchd 9/2) 2026-02-20 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 6/12 5/1 0.10L 69 68 David Nolan Towards rear - headway over 1f out - not pace to challenge(op 11/2) 2026-02-10 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 3/9 3/1F 1.50L 69 71 Paul Mulrennan In touch with leaders - switched right over 2f out - no impression from over 1f out(op 11/4) 2025-12-19 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 2/8 12/1 0.50L 68 75 Ben Robinson Towards rear - not clear run when headway over 1f out - went second final strides - kept on well 2025-11-03 Southwell (AW 5f Standard Cla 4/5 2/1J 3.00L 70 65 Oliver Carmichael Prominent - weakened final furlong(op 7/4) 2025-10-14 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 6/14 100/30J 1.00L 71 70 Harrison Shaw Led but pestered - headed over 1f out - weakened final 110yds(op 11/2) 2025-09-17 Beverley 5f Soft Cla 9/10 22/1 0.30L 74 43 Harrison Shaw Dwelt start - hampered soon after start - towards rear throughout(tchd 28/1) 2025-07-15 Thirsk 5f Good To S Cla 4/7 15/2 0.50L 75 76 Billy Loughnane Held up in rear - headway inside final furlong - kept on(op 17/2 tchd 13/2) 2025-07-05 Haydock 5f Good Cla 8/8 6/1 1.00L 76 55 Paul Mulrennan Bumped start - prominent - weakened over 1f out (trainer's rep said - regarding the poor form shown - that gelding was unable to obtain cover and ran freely as as result)(op 9/2) 2025-06-26 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 2/11 9/2 1.25L 75 79 David Nolan In rear - not clear run then some headway over 1f out - switched left and ran on well inside final furlong(op 6/1) 2025-06-07 Musselburgh 5f Good Cla 6/10 20/1 0.20L 76 73 Paul Mulrennan Ducked right start - in rear - kept on inside final furlong(op 14/1) 2025-03-12 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 1/6 1/4F won — 67 Paul Mulrennan Prominent - led halfway - shaken up over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - cosily(op 2/7 tchd 2/9) 2024-12-09 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 2/9 8/13F 0.50L — 74 David Nolan Prominent - hung left halfway - pressed winner from over 1f out - no extra final 110yds(op 8/11) 2024-11-11 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 2/9 50/1 1.25L — 72 David Nolan In rear - ridden over 1f out - headway inside final furlong - kept on inside final 110yds - went second towards finish - promising Comment Dwelt start - in rear - headway when not clear run against rail over 1f out - kept on - never dangerous(op 6/1) Finishing result Position 6 SP 4/1F (5.000) Beaten (L) 0.50 Total beaten 7.50 OR after 66 In-running comment Dwelt start - in rear - headway when not clear run against rail over 1f out - kept on - never dangerous(op 6/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4. KELDEO (GB) (#2 · Σ 61.0) 5yo M · Draw 10 Connections Jockey Cam Hardie Trainer Ollie Pears Owner Ownaracehorse O Pears And Tt Racing Ltd Pedigree Sire Land Force (IRE) Dam Kept Under Wraps (IRE) Damsire Clodovil Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 5.50 (Bet365) 15:01 6.00 (Bet365) 16:21 5.50 (Bet365) 18:20 5.00 (Bet365) 09:11 10.00 (10 Bet) 09:16 9.50 (Unibet) 09:55 9.00 (Betfred) 10:01 10.00 (Bet Victor) 10:05 9.50 (Unibet) 10:09 9.00 (Bet Victor) 10:17 10.00 (Coral) 10:25 9.00 (Betfred) 10:52 8.50 (Betfred) 11:00 8.00 (William Hill) 12:04 8.50 (Coral) 12:12 9.00 (Coral) 12:29 8.50 (Coral) 12:35 9.00 (Coral) 13:02 9.50 (Bet Victor) 13:21 10.00 (Bet Victor) 13:26 9.00 (Unibet) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 85, best TS in field at 78. Form 7.0/10 76-514 with improving 4th last time at this level. Connections 4.0/10 Pears yard quiet (0/6 14d), Hardie a journeyman jockey. Fitness 8.0/10 19 days, ideal turnaround. Trip 7.0/10 Land Force progeny suit 5-6f; has form at sprint trips. Pace 7.0/10 Races handy, good tactical position from stall 10. Draw 4.0/10 Stall 10 of 11 — slight wide-draw negative at Carlisle 5f. Equipment 5.0/10 No equipment change. Weight 6.0/10 132lb, near peak but manageable. Value 7.0/10 Likely under-rated given top TS and improving line. Σ Summary 61.0/100 Best TS in field and improving form line make him a serious player. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1621.7 (28 runs, 5 wins, 17.9%) Jockey 1507.9 (7327 runs, 396 wins, 5.4%) Trainer 1529.1 (1857 runs, 154 wins, 8.3%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 83r 3w 4% A/E 0.58 (negative) Jockey × trainer 245r 15w 6% A/E 0.91 (fair) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 85r 11w 13% A/E 1.05 (fair) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 453r 35w 8% A/E 0.78 (negative) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 32r 5w 16% A/E 1.36 (value) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 613r 68w 11% A/E 0.93 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 4/10 8/1 5.50L 72 85 Cam Hardie Disputed lead - led clearly under 2f out - headed over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 13/2) 2026-04-29 Pontefract 5f Good Cla 4/8 5/2F 0.50L 73 70 Harry Russell In touch with leaders - no extra final furlong(op 9/4 tchd 2/1) 2026-04-08 Catterick 6f Good Cla 1/8 5/1 won 69 77 Harry Russell Raced in second - ridden to lead but edged left over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - always doing enough(op 11/2) 2026-03-10 Southwell (AW 5f Standard Cla 5/12 10/1 0.30L 70 73 Cam Hardie Midfield - steady headway over 2f out - carried head awkwardly over 1f out - not pace to challenge(op 9/1) 2025-09-22 Hamilton 5f Soft Cla 6/8 8/1 2.00L 72 57 Cam Hardie Prominent - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 15/2) 2025-09-09 Catterick 5f Good Cla 7/13 14/1 0.30L 74 73 Cam Hardie Prominent - hung left and no extra final 110yds(tchd 16/1) 2025-07-26 York 5f Good Cla 15/19 8/1 0.75L 76 46 Brian Hughes In touch with leaders - weakened 2f out(op 15/2 tchd 7/1) 2025-06-27 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 6/10 4/1 0.50L 74 73 Cam Hardie Led - headed 2f out - in touch with leaders over 1f out - slightly hampered and weakened inside final furlong(op 3/1) 2025-06-17 Southwell (AW 5f Standard Cla 2/7 3/1 0.20L 74 81 Cam Hardie Pressed leader - led inside final furlong - headed but kept on inside final 110yds(op 7/2) 2025-05-30 Catterick 5f Good To S Cla 2/8 4/1 0.10L 72 80 Cam Hardie Took keen hold - disputed lead - ridden from over 1f out - led narrowly inside final furlong - headed final stride(tchd 9/2) 2025-05-13 Beverley 5f Good To F Cla 3/9 15/2 0.30L 72 79 Cam Hardie Prominent - ran on inside final furlong - no extra towards finish(op 11/2) 2025-05-05 Beverley 5f Good To F Cla 4/13 11/2 0.10L 72 76 Cam Hardie In touch with leaders - headway over 1f out - kept on(op 13/2 tchd 5/1) 2025-04-14 Pontefract 5f Good Cla 1/10 10/1 won 70 79 Cam Hardie Prominent - pressed leader over 2f out - ridden to lead over 1f out - soon faced challenge - just held on(op 12/1) 2025-03-30 Doncaster 5f Good Cla 11/17 18/1 0.20L 71 66 Cam Hardie Midfield - not clear run when headway over 1f out - not recover(op 25/1) 2025-03-07 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 5/6 22/1 0.30L 72 77 Cam Hardie Prominent - challenging from over 1f out - no extra towards finish(op 25/1 tchd 20/1 and tchd 28/1) 2024-09-23 Hamilton 5f Good To S Cla 7/7 7/1 2.00L 72 61 Harry Russell Raced near side - prominent - weakened final furlong (trainer's rep could offer no explanation for the poor form shown)(tchd 15/2) 2024-09-10 Catterick 5f Soft Cla 1/9 15/2 won 69 78 Luke Morris Prominent - raced far side early - switched right and towards near side from over 2f out - ridden from over 1f out - led inside final 110yds - kept on - 1st of 5 in group(op 7/1) 2024-08-26 Ripon 5f Good Cla 6/10 11/1 0.30L 70 71 Harry Russell Towards rear on outer - headway over 1f out - no extra inside final 110yds(op 9/1) 2024-07-26 Thirsk 6f Good To F Cla 2/7 4/1C 2.50L 71 78 David Nolan Prominent - disputing lead 2f out - hung left but went second over 1f out - kept on but no extra towards finish(op 7/2) 2024-07-17 Thirsk 5f Good To S Cla 4/8 9/2 1.00L 71 73 Harry Russell Outpaced in rear - rallied on near side of group 2f out - hung left but ran on from over 1f out - no impression inside final 110yds(op 11/2) Comment Disputed lead - led clearly under 2f out - headed over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 13/2) Finishing result Position 4 SP 8/1 (9.000) Beaten (L) 5.50 Total beaten 6.75 OR after 72 In-running comment Disputed lead - led clearly under 2f out - headed over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 13/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5. HARB (GB) (#10 · Σ 57.0) 7yo G · Draw 8 Connections Jockey Rowan Scott Trainer Tristan Davidson Owner Border Raiders Ii Pedigree Sire Muhaarar (GB) Dam Maid For Winning (USA) Damsire Gone West Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 13.00 (Bet365) 15:01 9.00 (Bet365) 16:01 9.50 (Bet365) 00:31 10.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 12.00 (William Hill) 10:25 11.00 (William Hill) 11:00 10.00 (BetTom) 11:06 9.50 (Bet365) 11:39 10.00 (Coral) 12:02 9.50 (Bet Victor) 12:04 9.00 (Betfred) 13:08 8.50 (Bet365) 13:12 9.00 (Betfred) 13:21 11.00 (Spreadex) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 87 strong, OFR 62 modest — well-in on ratings. Form 4.0/10 514788 — won earlier but trending down recently. Connections 5.0/10 Davidson yard 1/10 14d, Scott reasonable jockey, trainer Elo 1577. Fitness 8.0/10 13 days — sharp turnaround. Trip 6.0/10 Muhaarar progeny — speed profile. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-division. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 8 — middle of pack. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 8.0/10 122lb off OFR 62 — well-in on RPR vs OFR. Value 5.0/10 RPR/OFR gap interesting but form line slipping. Σ Summary 57.0/100 Well-in on the handicapper but recent form has tailed off. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1583.8 (58 runs, 8 wins, 13.8%) Jockey 1608.6 (3836 runs, 316 wins, 8.2%) Trainer 1576.6 (920 runs, 124 wins, 13.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 126r 11w 9% A/E 0.87 (fair) Jockey × trainer 78r 14w 18% A/E 1.40 (value) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 67r 7w 10% A/E 0.94 (fair) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 1196r 167w 14% A/E 0.95 (fair) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 51r 11w 22% A/E 1.37 (value) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 1956r 229w 12% A/E 0.85 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 1/10 11/1 won 62 83 Rowan Scott In rear - pushed along 2f out - headway over 1f out - ridden inside final furlong - led towards finish(op 17/2) 2026-05-05 Ayr 5f Good To F Cla 8/9 5/2F 2.00L 64 — David Nolan In touch with leaders - prominent when hit on nose by rival's whip over 1f out - weakened final 110yds 2026-04-07 Pontefract 5f Good To S Cla 8/13 9/2F 0.50L 64 46 Cian Horgan Midfield - not clear run repeatedly from over 1f out (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run 1 1/2f out - and again in final furlong)(op 11/2) 2026-03-12 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 7/9 5/1 3.75L 65 44 Cian Horgan Took keen hold - prominent - weakened final furlong(op 13/2 tchd 9/2) 2026-03-05 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 4/12 11/1 0.20L 65 69 Cian Horgan Towards rear - some headway then not clear run and switched right over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 12/1) 2026-02-19 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 1/9 11/1 won 62 70 Cian Horgan Midfield - headway and in touch with leaders 1f out - ran on to lead inside final 110yds - kept on(op 14/1) 2026-02-06 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 5/10 7/1 0.75L 63 64 Luke Morris Prominent - no extra inside final 110yds(tchd 6/1) 2026-01-20 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 3/11 9/1 0.75L 64 70 Luke Morris Prominent on far side of group - no extra inside final 110yds(op 10/1 tchd 8/1 and tchd 11/1) 2025-12-16 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 4/13 17/2 0.20L 65 67 David Nolan Midfield - headway on far side of group over 1f out - kept on final 110yds(op 11/1) 2025-11-01 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 13/13 15/2 9.50L 67 — David Nolan In touch with leaders - weakened and eased over 1f out (jockey said gelding stopped quickly)(Mkt1: op 9/1; Mkt2 op 17/2) 2025-10-21 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 6/14 11/1 0.50L 68 61 Cian Horgan Midfield - hampered over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 17/2) 2025-09-29 Hamilton 5f Soft Cla 5/8 11/2 1.75L 69 65 David Nolan Dwelt start - towards rear on far side of group - headway from over 1f out - weakened inside final 110yds(op 9/2) 2025-09-18 Ayr 5f Good To S Cla 4/18 4/1 1.00L 69 69 Billy Loughnane Raced far side - in touch with leaders - switched to centre after 2f - headway over 1f out - no extra final 110yds - 4th of 7 in group(op 7/2) 2025-08-09 Ayr 5f Good Cla 1/7 7/2 won 64 72 David Nolan In touch with leaders - pushed along and challenging over 1f out - ridden to lead inside final furlong - edged left final 110yds - always doing enough(tchd 5/1) 2025-04-10 Lingfield (AW 5f Standard Cla 4/6 7/2 1.50L 64 63 Tom Queally Held up in rear - outpaced over 2f out - some headway over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong - no impression towards finish(op 10/3) 2025-04-01 Lingfield (AW 5f Standard Cla 3/7 4/1 0.50L 64 70 Shane Kelly In touch with leaders - headway inside final furlong - stayed on(tchd 10/3) 2025-03-05 Lingfield (AW 5f Standard Cla 2/7 8/1 3.25L 65 65 Shane Kelly Towards rear but in touch with leaders - headway on outer from under 2f out - went second inside final 110yds - kept on(op 6/1) 2025-02-16 Lingfield (AW 5f Standard Cla 6/9 13/2 0.75L 66 56 Shane Kelly Raced wide - held up in rear - no telling impression(op 7/1 tchd 6/1 and tchd 15/2) 2025-01-22 Lingfield (AW 6f Standard Cla 3/7 5/1 3.50L 67 62 Shane Kelly Took keen hold - raced in second - raced wide on turn over 3f out - lost position over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong - finished 4th - placed 3rd(op 11/1 tchd 11/2) 2025-01-03 Lingfield (AW 5f Standard Cla 4/8 11/1 1.00L 67 68 Shane Kelly Prominent - lost position gradually over 1f out - kept on but no impression final 110yds(op 17/2 tchd 15/2) Comment In rear - pushed along 2f out - headway over 1f out - ridden inside final furlong - led towards finish(op 17/2) Finishing result Position 1 SP 11/1 (12.000) Beaten (L) 0.00 Total beaten 0.00 OR after 62 In-running comment In rear - pushed along 2f out - headway over 1f out - ridden inside final furlong - led towards finish(op 17/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6. IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) (#7 · Σ 54.0) 5yo G · Draw 3 Connections Jockey Mark Winn Trainer Michael Dods Owner Csk Services Limited Pedigree Sire Night Of Thunder (IRE) Dam Ancestral (GB) Damsire Bated Breath Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 12.00 (Bet365) 15:01 13.00 (Bet365) 16:21 12.00 (Bet365) 18:20 13.00 (Bet365) 09:11 9.00 (BetWright) 09:16 8.50 (Bet365) 10:25 8.00 (Bet365) 10:58 8.50 (Bet365) 11:25 9.00 (William Hill) 12:02 8.50 (William Hill) 12:04 8.00 (Bet365) 12:12 8.50 (Bet365) 12:39 8.00 (Bet365) 12:45 8.50 (Coral) 13:26 7.50 (Unibet) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 9.0/10 Top RPR in field at 98, plus TS 91 — class edge if fit. Form 2.0/10 80696- before 210-day break — uninspiring. Connections 4.0/10 Dods yard 1/27 last 14d (4%), Winn handy young rider. Fitness 2.0/10 210 days off — heavy negative. Trip 6.0/10 Night Of Thunder progeny stays 5-7f. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-division runner. Draw 7.0/10 Stall 3 favourable at Carlisle 5f. Equipment 5.0/10 No noted change. Weight 7.0/10 127lb off OFR 67 — well in if running to RPR 98. Value 7.0/10 Big class drop on weights potentially under-bet against layoff risk. Σ Summary 54.0/100 Top RPR and well-in mark but 210-day absence and cold yard force a discount. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1561.5 (19 runs, 1 wins, 5.3%) Jockey 1581.5 (1286 runs, 136 wins, 10.6%) Trainer 1580.7 (5160 runs, 596 wins, 11.6%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 41r 7w 17% A/E 1.37 (value) Jockey × trainer 18r 4w 22% A/E 2.48 (value) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 643r 58w 9% A/E 0.70 (negative) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 960r 178w 19% A/E 1.02 (fair) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 6r 2w 33% A/E 1.35 (value) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 270r 39w 14% A/E 1.05 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 8/10 11/2 0.50L 67 87 Mark Winn Midfield - outpaced from 2f out(op 13/2 tchd 7/1) 2025-10-20 Wolverhampton 6f Standard Cla 6/9 15/2 0.75L 69 51 Sean Kirrane Prominent early - led at fast pace after 2f - headed and weakened from over 1f out(op 13/2) 2025-09-21 Southwell (AW 5f Standard Cla 9/14 5/1 0.30L 71 68 Daniel Muscutt In touch with leaders - weakened from 1f out(tchd 9/2) 2025-08-28 Chelmsford (A 5f Standard Cla 6/9 9/2 0.50L 73 74 Sean Kirrane In rear - raced wide but some headway final furlong(op 5/1 tchd 11/2) 2025-08-06 Pontefract 6f Good To F Cla 10/10 11/2 0.50L 76 47 Daniel Tudhope Dwelt start - towards rear throughout(op 15/2 tchd 8/1) 2025-07-19 Newmarket (Ju 6f Good To S Cla 8/10 9/4J 0.20L 79 59 Oisin Murphy Always behind - hampered soon after start(op 15/8) 2025-06-26 Hamilton 5f Good Cla 6/8 5/1 0.30L 81 67 Connor Beasley Carried right and bumped rival start - in touch with leaders - not clear run over 2f out - hung right and outpaced final furlong (jockey said gelding hung right-handed under pressure)(op 4/1) 2025-05-31 Southwell (AW 5f Standard Cla 3/9 7/2 1.25L 81 83 Lewis Edmunds In touch with leaders - headway and pressed leader when hampered over 1f out - lost position then rallied final 110yds(op 3/1) 2025-05-17 Newmarket 6f Good To F Cla 4/9 16/5F 0.30L 82 85 Cieren Fallon Towards far side - in touch with leaders - headway and disputing second inside final furlong - kept on(op 10/3 tchd 7/2) 2025-05-03 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 3/10 3/1 1.25L 82 85 Connor Beasley Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - headway over 2f out - lost second inside final 110yds - stayed on(op 10/3 tchd 11/4) 2025-03-30 Doncaster 7f Good Cla 8/15 13/2 2.25L 83 72 Connor Beasley Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - some headway and prominent over 2f out - weakened from over 1f out(op 11/2 tchd 7/1) 2024-09-21 Newmarket 6f Good To F Cla 2/11 4/1 0.30L 82 89 Callum Hutchinson Raced near side - towards rear - outpaced over 2f out - rallied inside final furlong - ran on well final 110yds - went second final strides - nearest finish(tchd 7/2) 2024-08-10 Ascot 6f Good To F Cla 6/10 5/1 1.00L 83 73 Nanako Fujita In touch with leaders on outer - weakened gradually from over 1f out 2024-07-11 Newmarket (Ju 6f Good To S Cla 3/13 6/1 0.50L 83 89 Hayley Turner Towards near side - prominent - outpaced over 1f out - rallied final 110yds - kept on - 2nd of 8 in group(op 7/1 tchd 11/2 and tchd 15/2) 2024-06-15 York 6f Good To S Cla 5/17 9/1 0.30L 84 84 Hayley Turner Bumped start - took keen hold - towards rear - going easily halfway - headway 2f out - edged right but keeping on inside final furlong - nearest finish(op 10/1) 2024-05-10 Ascot 6f Good Cla 3/12 5/1 2.25L 84 86 Daniel Tudhope Took keen hold - in rear towards near side - headway when bit short of room over 1f out - went third inside final 110yds - kept on - no match for first two(op 7/1) 2024-04-15 Kempton (AW) 6f Standard Cla 3/3 8/13F 4.75L 85 72 Daniel Tudhope Set good pace - led narrowly - headed over 2f out - weakened over 1f out - eased inside final furlong (trainer's rep could offer no explanation for the poor form shown) 2024-03-27 Kempton (AW) 6f Standard Cla 1/7 7/2 won — 81 Daniel Tudhope Prominent - headway to lead over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 10/3) 2023-10-11 Kempton (AW) 7f Standard Cla 2/10 4/6F 1.25L — 81 Oisin Murphy Prominent - led over 3f out - went clear from over 2f out - reduced lead over 1f out - headed inside final 110yds - weakened towards finish(op 4/5) 2023-09-22 Kempton (AW) 7f Standard Cla 3/12 4/1 0.75L — 75 Oisin Murphy Dwelt start - took keen hold - midfield - headway up the centre from over 2f out - went third inside final furlong - kept on well - eyecatcher(tchd 7/2) Comment Midfield - outpaced from 2f out(op 13/2 tchd 7/1) Finishing result Position 8 SP 11/2 (6.500) Beaten (L) 0.50 Total beaten 8.25 OR after 67 In-running comment Midfield - outpaced from 2f out(op 13/2 tchd 7/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7. FIERCE (IRE) (#6 · Σ 52.0) 6yo G · Draw 7 Connections Jockey Ray Dawson Trainer Paul Midgley Owner Calcaria Racing Partner Pedigree Sire Dandy Man (IRE) Dam Saffian (GB) Damsire Dubawi Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 9.00 (Bet365) 15:01 9.50 (Bet365) 16:01 11.00 (CopyBet) 00:31 12.00 (William Hill) 09:11 8.00 (Dragon Bet) 09:16 7.00 (Bet365) 09:46 7.50 (Bet365) 12:04 7.00 (Bet365) 12:18 6.50 (Bet365) 13:16 6.00 (Bet365) 13:21 7.00 (Bet365) 13:26 7.50 (Coral) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 3.0/10 RPR 80 — well below top of field. Form 3.0/10 0557-3 — third last time but mostly disappointing. Connections 7.0/10 Midgley yard 21% strike rate is a major positive. Fitness 6.0/10 41 days — middle of road. Trip 6.0/10 Dandy Man progeny — 5f standard. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-pack. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 7 — middle of pack. Equipment 6.0/10 Had wind surgery Jan 2025 — second-run improvement angle. Weight 6.0/10 128lb manageable. Value 5.0/10 Wind-op angle and hot yard offsets the form figures. Σ Summary 52.0/100 Hot yard and wind-op angle but base form modest. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1564.5 (31 runs, 4 wins, 12.9%) Jockey 1543.6 (2900 runs, 317 wins, 10.9%) Trainer 1624.1 (3421 runs, 409 wins, 12.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle no data Jockey × trainer no data Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 157r 18w 11% A/E 1.03 (fair) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 3449r 364w 11% A/E 0.86 (fair) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 17r 2w 12% A/E 0.57 (negative) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 2442r 318w 13% A/E 0.84 (negative) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 2/10 11/2 0.75L 68 86 Ray Dawson Dwelt start - in rear - headway up the centre 2f out - pressed leaders 1f out - kept on and went second towards finish (jockey said gelding hung left-handed throughout)(tchd 9/2 and tchd 6/1) 2026-04-07 Southwell (AW 5f Standard Cla 3/8 20/1 0.75L 69 67 John Fahy Taken down early - midfield - headway from over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 22/1) 2025-11-26 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 7/7 33/1 1.50L 73 68 John Fahy Dwelt start - in rear throughout(op 16/1) 2025-11-18 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 5/12 12/1 2.50L 73 65 Barry McHugh Towards rear - some headway over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 14/1 tchd 11/1) 2025-10-09 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 5/9 9/2 0.30L 75 67 John Fahy Dwelt start - in rear - headway over 1f out - kept on final 110yds(tchd 4/1) 2025-09-25 Pontefract 6f Good To S Cla 11/14 20/1 1.75L 77 63 Tom Eaves Towards rear - midfield halfway - brief headway over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 18/1) 2025-08-28 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 11/14 10/1 0.50L 77 71 Archie Young Midfield - in touch with leaders 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 9/1 tchd 11/1) 2025-08-10 Wolverhampton 6f Standard Cla 1/4 5/1 won 78 83 John Fahy Slowly away - raced in last - switched right and ridden over 1f out - headway and pressed leader inside final furlong - led inside final 110yds - won going away(op 6/1 tchd 9/2) 2025-08-06 Pontefract 6f Good To F Cla 8/10 5/1 4.00L 78 57 Paul Mulrennan In touch with leaders - headway over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 11/2 tchd 9/2) 2025-06-09 Pontefract 6f Good Cla 1/10 9/2 won 69 83 David Nolan Bit short of room soon after start - took keen hold - in rear on inner - headway on inner from 2f out - not clear run over 1f out - soon ridden to lead when in the clear - won going away(op 6/1) 2025-05-13 Beverley 5f Good To F Cla 4/9 4/1 0.75L 70 75 David Nolan Towards rear - in touch with leaders but waiting for room against far rail 2f out - ran on final 110yds - no extra towards finish(op 9/2) 2025-04-24 Beverley 5f Good Cla 4/13 14/1 0.50L 71 68 Jason Hart Slowly into stride - in rear - switched sharply right soon after start - headway over 1f out - nearest finish - kept on final 110yds - no impression(op 12/1) 2025-03-22 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 2/11 14/1 0.30L 70 76 Jason Hart Slowly away then ducked left start - in rear - bumped rival then took keen hold soon after start - short of room when headway from under 2f out - soon switched left - went second inside final 110yds - kept on(op 18/1 tchd 12/1 and tchd 20/1) 2024-10-15 Leicester 7f Heavy Cla 7/9 14/1 0.50L 71 43 Tom Queally Took keen hold - prominent - weakened from over 2f out (jockey said gelding ran too free)(op 16/1 tchd 12/1 and tchd 18/1) 2024-09-06 Kempton (AW) 6f Standard Cla 8/8 5/1 0.20L 71 52 Tom Queally Slowly away and awkward start - in rear - outpaced and no impression from over 2f out(Mkt1: op 6/1 tchd 11/2; Mkt2 op 4/1) 2024-08-22 Lingfield (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/10 4/1C won 66 78 Tom Queally Slowly away - held up in rear - raced wide but good headway over 2f out - pushed along over 1f out - led and ridden inside final furlong - ran on well - comfortably 2024-07-11 Epsom 6f Good To S Cla 6/7 5/1 0.75L 69 59 Tom Queally Slowly away - towards rear - headway from over 3f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 13/2 tchd 8/1) 2024-05-28 Brighton 7f Good Cla 9/9 5/1 5.50L 71 36 Cieren Fallon Visibility reduced by sea-fret - took keen hold - held up in rear - no impression from 2f out (jockey said gelding ran too free)(op 6/1 tchd 13/2) 2024-05-06 Windsor 6f Heavy Cla 6/9 100/30F 1.50L 73 66 Rhys Clutterbuck Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - disputed lead 2f out - weakened final furlong(op 3/1 tchd 11/4) 2023-09-13 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 13/14 7/1 0.30L 75 64 Kieran Shoemark Prominent - not clear run under 2f out - hampered and lost position over 1f out - soon in rear(op 9/1) Comment Dwelt start - in rear - headway up the centre 2f out - pressed leaders 1f out - kept on and went second towards finish (jockey said gelding hung left-handed throughout)(tchd 9/2 and tchd 6/1) Finishing result Position 2 SP 11/2 (6.500) Beaten (L) 0.75 Total beaten 0.75 OR after 68 In-running comment Dwelt start - in rear - headway up the centre 2f out - pressed leaders 1f out - kept on and went second towards finish (jockey said gelding hung left-handed throughout)(tchd 9/2 and tchd 6/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 8. WEN MOON (IRE) (#3 · Σ 50.0) 6yo G · Draw 1 Connections Jockey Andrew Mullen Trainer Ben Haslam Owner Mps Racing D Shapiro D Clifford Pedigree Sire Mehmas (IRE) Dam Luminous Gold (GB) Damsire Fantastic Light Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 13.00 (Bet365) 10:17 15.00 (7Bet) 10:21 13.00 (Bet365) 10:25 15.00 (Coral) 10:52 13.00 (William Hill) 11:13 12.00 (Bet365) 12:06 11.00 (Bet365) 13:02 10.00 (Bet365) 13:21 9.50 (BetTom) 13:26 7.00 (BetTom) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 RPR 85, TS 86 strong but OFR mid-field. Form 3.0/10 7651-0 — last run a 0 (tailed off). Connections 4.0/10 Haslam yard 0/14 last 14d, Mullen a workmanlike rider. Fitness 7.0/10 32 days, fine refresher. Trip 6.0/10 Mehmas progeny — pure sprinter pedigree. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-pack runner from stall 1. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 1 could be useful at Carlisle 5f if rail isn't dead. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 5.0/10 130lb, mid-handicap. Value 4.0/10 Patchy form makes him hard to back at short prices. Σ Summary 50.0/100 Decent ratings undermined by a tailed-off latest run and cold yard. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1613.0 (35 runs, 4 wins, 11.4%) Jockey 1510.6 (6965 runs, 564 wins, 8.1%) Trainer 1537.1 (2310 runs, 277 wins, 12.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 326r 21w 6% A/E 0.76 (negative) Jockey × trainer 480r 59w 12% A/E 1.07 (value) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 98r 7w 7% A/E 0.76 (negative) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 1640r 243w 15% A/E 0.93 (fair) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 13r 2w 15% A/E 1.11 (value) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 1677r 198w 12% A/E 0.91 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 3/10 9/2 0.50L 70 85 Andrew Mullen Prominent - led over 1f out - edged left then lost two places inside final furlong - kept on(op 11/2 tchd 7/2) 2026-04-16 Ripon 6f Good To S Cla 15/16 25/1 0.05L 71 51 Andrew Mullen Raced far side - in rear - brief headway over 1f out - weakened quickly inside final furlong - 5th of 6 in group(op 20/1) 2025-11-05 Musselburgh 5f Soft Cla 1/12 16/5 won 65 75 Jason Hart Prominent - ridden and led over 1f out - kept on(op 2/1) 2025-10-21 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 5/14 4/1J 0.30L 67 62 Aiden Brookes Held up in rear - some headway then not clear run and switched right over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 9/2) 2025-09-27 Ripon 5f Good Cla 6/13 14/1 0.50L 69 61 Cam Hardie Raced near side - raced in last - still plenty to do halfway - some headway from 1f out - nearest finish - 4th of 9 in group(op 12/1) 2025-09-05 Haydock 5f Good Cla 7/14 10/1 1.25L 69 61 Aiden Brookes In rear - not clear run 2f out - soon in the clear - nudged along inside final furlong - never dangerous (inquiry held into running and riding; jockey stated that his instructions were to ride gelding with cover - get him travelling and to finish the race off well; jockey explained that race was ran at an even gallop and gelding travelled well but he felt his mount progressively become more thick in his wind under pressure and lug to his left in concluding stages - had no more to give and - in his opinion - had obtained best possible placing; trainer stated he was satisfied with ride and that it accorded with instructions given; trainer added that previous riders have mentioned gelding can be thick winded and he has tried various nosebands and a tongue strap to rectify thickness in his wind; trainer further added he had also been recommended to remove all previous headgear in an attempt to sweeten gelding up)(op 15/2) 2025-08-17 Pontefract 5f Good To F Cla 5/6 6/1 0.10L 71 65 Aiden Brookes In rear - some headway final furlong - never dangerous(op 7/1) 2025-07-26 York 5f Good Cla 16/19 20/1 0.10L 74 43 Richie McLernon Towards rear on near side of group - short of room and weakened over 2f out(op 16/1) 2025-07-11 York 5f Good To F Cla 12/16 13/2 0.30L 76 62 Paul Mulrennan Dwelt start - in rear - pulled hard and headway into midfield after 2f - disputing third over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 7/1) 2025-05-31 York 6f Good Cla 12/20 16/1 1.25L 78 65 Andrew Mullen In rear - headway into midfield over 3f out - edged left when in touch with leaders over 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 14/1 and tchd 18/1) 2025-05-02 Musselburgh 5f Good Cla 4/9 5/2F 0.50L 79 81 Paul Mulrennan In touch with leaders - headway 1f out - pressed leader briefly final 110yds - weakened towards finish(op 3/1) 2025-04-08 Pontefract 5f Good Cla 8/10 13/2 0.30L 80 68 Andrew Mullen Hampered soon after start - towards rear throughout(op 5/1 tchd 9/2) 2024-10-19 Catterick 5f Soft Cla 3/10 7/2F 0.50L 80 87 Joanna Mason In touch with leaders - hung right but headway over 1f out - went second inside final furlong - no extra and lost second towards finish(tchd 10/3) 2024-10-11 York 5f Soft Cla 3/17 5/1 0.30L 80 87 Joanna Mason Prominent on far side of group - challenging over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong - lost second towards finish(op 9/2) 2024-08-31 Chester 6f Good Cla 9/10 4/1 0.75L 82 75 Franny Norton Awkward start - soon jockey lost iron - always behind (jockey said gelding suffered interference leaving stalls - resulting in gelding becoming unbalanced which caused him to lose an iron for a number of strides)(op 7/2) 2024-08-21 York 5½f Good To F Cla 11/22 20/1 0.30L 84 83 Joanna Mason Ducked right start - raced near side - in touch with leaders - headway over 1f out - kept on - 4th of 11 in group 2024-07-19 Pontefract 5f Good Cla 3/8 100/30 1.25L 84 87 Joanna Mason Took keen hold - towards rear but in touch with leaders - headway from 2f out - short of room over 1f out - switched left inside final furlong - kept on and went third when against far rail inside final 110yds (jockey said gelding was briefly denied a clear run approximately 1 1/2f from line)(op 3/1) 2024-07-12 York 5f Good To S Cla 3/11 15/8F 2.25L 84 86 Andrew Mullen Towards rear - smooth headway into midfield halfway - not clear run repeatedly from over 1f out - edged right and hampered rival inside final furlong - ran on well final 110yds - went third final stride - eyecatcher(op 7/4) 2024-07-09 Pontefract 6f Soft Cla 2/7 9/2 1.50L 84 91 Joanna Mason In touch with leaders on outer - steady headway over 2f out - hung left and briefly led final 110yds - no match for winner(op 5/1 tchd 11/2) 2024-06-15 Chester 5f Soft Cla 5/11 7/1 0.50L 86 85 Franny Norton Took keen hold - towards rear - headway from under 2f out - slightly hampered over 1f out - kept on well inside final furlong(op 13/2) Comment Prominent - led over 1f out - edged left then lost two places inside final furlong - kept on(op 11/2 tchd 7/2) Finishing result Position 3 SP 9/2 (5.500) Beaten (L) 0.50 Total beaten 1.25 OR after 70 In-running comment Prominent - led over 1f out - edged left then lost two places inside final furlong - kept on(op 11/2 tchd 7/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9. HURT YOU NEVER (IRE) (#5 · Σ 50.0) 7yo M · Draw 4 Connections Jockey Jack Nicholls Trainer Adrian Nicholls Owner A Nicholls Bob Joy Pedigree Sire Dandy Man (IRE) Dam Kyllarney (GB) Damsire Kyllachy Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 5.50 (Bet365) 15:01 6.00 (Bet365) 16:01 6.50 (Coral) 00:31 7.00 (William Hill) 09:11 7.50 (Betfred) 09:46 7.00 (Coral) 10:52 7.50 (Midnite) 11:00 7.00 (Bet365) 11:33 7.50 (Midnite) 11:45 7.00 (Bet365) 12:04 6.50 (Bet365) 12:22 7.00 (Betfred) 12:35 6.50 (Bet365) 13:21 7.50 (Bet365) 13:26 9.50 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 3.0/10 RPR 80 — bottom third of field. Form 3.0/10 00-703 — third recently but two 0s and 7 in cycle. Connections 3.0/10 Nicholls yard 0/8 14d, 5lb claimer aboard. Fitness 9.0/10 10 days, very fresh. Trip 6.0/10 Dandy Man progeny suit 5-6f. Pace 5.0/10 Hold-up type at best. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 4 — neutral middle draw. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 6.0/10 129lb, eased in weights over time. Value 4.0/10 Modest profile, hard to find overlay angle. Σ Summary 50.0/100 Veteran sprinter with patchy form and cold connections — secondary at best. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1540.6 (65 runs, 14 wins, 21.5%) Jockey 1680.0 (350 runs, 40 wins, 11.4%) Trainer 1517.3 (1121 runs, 105 wins, 9.4%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 5r 1w 20% A/E 0.92 (fair) Jockey × trainer 48r 7w 15% A/E 1.12 (value) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 40r 5w 12% A/E 1.31 (value) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 3449r 364w 11% A/E 0.86 (fair) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 37r 8w 22% A/E 1.40 (value) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 2018r 198w 10% A/E 0.77 (negative) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 9/10 12/1 2.25L 69 84 Jack Nicholls Disputed lead - prominent after 1f - weakened final furlong(op 6/1) 2026-05-08 Ripon 5f Good Cla 3/8 13/2 1.25L 71 83 Jack Garritty In touch with leaders - headway from over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - went third towards finish - no match for first two(tchd 6/1) 2026-04-18 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 15/18 33/1 0.75L 73 47 Jack Nicholls Raced centre - led - headed over 2f out - hung left over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong 2026-04-10 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 7/15 33/1 0.30L 75 66 Jack Nicholls Pressed leader - lost position over 1f out - weakened gradually inside final furlong(op 28/1) 2025-10-18 Catterick 6f Good Cla 10/10 50/1 18.00L 77 7 Jack Garritty Pressed leader on outer early - soon led - headed over 3f out - soon weakened(op 33/1 tchd 66/1) 2025-09-25 Newmarket 6f Good Cla 11/11 80/1 1.25L 79 57 Jack Nicholls Midfield on outer - weakened over 1f out(op 66/1 tchd 100/1) 2025-08-27 Catterick 5f Good Cla 6/8 8/1 0.50L 81 77 Jack Nicholls Raced wide - never better than midfield(op 13/2 tchd 9/1) 2025-08-10 Haydock 5f Good To F Cla 11/13 14/1 0.10L 82 49 Jack Nicholls Anticipated start - raced centre - in touch with leaders - 6th of 8 in group - no chance with near side and weakened from over 1f out(op 18/1 and tchd 20/1) 2025-08-02 Hamilton 5f Good Cla 1/4 100/30 won 75 84 Alfie Gee Prominent early - soon steadied - raced in last after 1f - switched right before halfway - headway 2f out - led over 1f out - pushed along and went clear inside final furlong - readily(op 9/4) 2025-07-15 Nottingham 5f Good Cla 1/4 3/1 won 71 79 Jack Nicholls Held up in last but in touch with leaders - ridden 1f out - squeezed through inside final furlong - kept on and led towards finish(op 7/2) 2025-07-03 Haydock 5f Good Cla 3/7 11/2 0.05L 72 73 Jack Nicholls Prominent - ridden over 1f out - kept on(op 9/2) 2025-06-18 Hamilton 5f Good Cla 5/7 12/1 2.00L 73 67 Jack Nicholls Led early - soon pressed leader - weakened gradually from under 2f out(op 8/1) 2025-06-05 Hamilton 5f Good Cla 1/6 4/1 won 69 76 Jack Nicholls Made all - ridden and wandered around from over 1f out - kept on well inside final furlong - always doing enough(op 5/1) 2025-05-28 Hamilton 5f Good Cla 4/7 6/1 1.25L 70 72 Jack Nicholls Dwelt start - towards rear - headway over 1f out - short of room on inner inside final furlong - no extra inside final 110yds(op 7/1) 2025-05-19 Carlisle 5f Good To F Cla 5/7 8/1 0.05L 70 61 Jack Nicholls Prominent - led over 3f out - headed then weakened inside final furlong(op 13/2) 2025-05-04 Hamilton 5f Good To F Cla 1/4 4/9F won 65 73 Jack Nicholls Made all - ridden over 1f out - kept on well inside final furlong(op 4/6 tchd 4/5) 2025-04-23 Catterick 5f Good To F Cla 2/13 15/2 1.00L 64 72 Jack Nicholls Prominent - went second over 2f out - stayed on(op 10/1 tchd 11/1) 2025-04-12 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 8/9 11/1 1.50L 67 39 Jack Nicholls Disputed lead early - prominent after 2f - weakened quickly from 2f out - lost touch inside final furlong(op 9/1 tchd 14/1) 2024-09-25 Redcar 5f Good Cla 11/11 22/1 2.00L 70 51 Mia Nicholls Midfield - outpaced halfway - soon lost position - no chance from over 1f out - lost touch inside final furlong(op 20/1) 2024-09-13 Doncaster 5f Good Cla 13/14 33/1 0.05L 72 58 Mia Nicholls Raced centre - never better than midfield(op 22/1) Comment Disputed lead - prominent after 1f - weakened final furlong(op 6/1) Finishing result Position 9 SP 12/1 (13.000) Beaten (L) 2.25 Total beaten 10.50 OR after 69 In-running comment Disputed lead - prominent after 1f - weakened final furlong(op 6/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10. HARRY MOLE (GB) (#11 · Σ 44.0) 4yo G · Draw 6 Connections Jockey Faye McManoman Trainer Steph Hollinshead Owner Debbie Hodson Pedigree Sire Bungle Inthejungle (GB) Dam Spirit Ranger (IRE) Damsire Invincible Spirit Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 26.00 (Bet365) 16:01 31.00 (7Bet) 00:31 36.00 (7Bet) 01:00 34.00 (William Hill) 09:11 36.00 (7Bet) 09:34 34.00 (Bet365) 09:48 36.00 (7Bet) 09:55 34.00 (Bet365) 10:01 36.00 (7Bet) 10:09 34.00 (Bet365) 12:12 29.00 (Unibet) 12:18 26.00 (Bet365) 13:26 23.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 2.0/10 RPR 78 — clearly bottom of field, TS 53 weakest in race. Form 3.0/10 644-0 — never threatened. Connections 3.0/10 Hollinshead yard 1/7 14d, McManoman riding — weakest combo. Fitness 7.0/10 23 days, decent gap. Trip 5.0/10 Bungle Inthejungle progeny — sprinter pedigree. Pace 4.0/10 Slow away type historically. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 6 — middle. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 7.0/10 Bottom weight 117lb — small mercy. Value 3.0/10 Lowest-rated profile across the board. Σ Summary 44.0/100 Weakest entire profile in the field — outsider standing. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1483.0 (4 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1480.9 (1999 runs, 134 wins, 6.7%) Trainer 1478.3 (1076 runs, 73 wins, 6.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 66r 12w 18% A/E 1.37 (value) Jockey × trainer 6r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 23r 6w 26% A/E 2.95 (value) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 949r 92w 10% A/E 0.81 (negative) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 5r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 3874r 418w 11% A/E 0.83 (negative) Past form (last 5 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 5f Good Cla 5/10 22/1 0.30L 57 80 Faye McManoman Took keen hold - prominent - outpaced and lost position 2f out - stayed on final furlong(tchd 20/1) 2026-04-25 Haydock 6f Good To F Cla 10/11 20/1 2.50L 60 44 Jack Callan Pressed leader - led over 2f out - hung left and headed over 1f out - soon weakened(op 25/1) 2025-11-25 Wolverhampton 5f Standard Cla 4/8 66/1 2.75L — 55 Dougie Costello Midfield - some headway over 2f out - no impression from over 1f out (jockey said gelding hung-right handed on bend)(op 50/1) 2025-10-18 Catterick 6f Good Cla 4/9 66/1 1.50L — 55 Dougie Costello Took keen hold - prominent - weakened from over 1f out(tchd 100/1) 2025-09-29 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 6/8 125/1 3.75L — 50 Dougie Costello In touch with leaders - hung left from over 2f out - weakened from over 1f out (jockey said gelding hung left-handed)(op 100/1) Comment Took keen hold - prominent - outpaced and lost position 2f out - stayed on final furlong(tchd 20/1) Finishing result Position 5 SP 22/1 (23.000) Beaten (L) 0.30 Total beaten 7.00 OR after 57 In-running comment Took keen hold - prominent - outpaced and lost position 2f out - stayed on final furlong(tchd 20/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 11. ACRISIUS (NR) (#NR · Σ 51.0) 4yo G · 135lb · Draw 11 Connections Jockey Daniel Tudhope Trainer Michael & David Easterby (Sheriff Hutton, N Yorks) Owner B Padgett Breeder Brian Padgett Trainer 14d 1/29 (3%) DOB 2022-03-05 Pedigree Sire Ardad (IRE) Dam Aetna (GB) Damsire Indesatchel Form / ratings Form string 7310-9 Last run (days) 33 OFR 75 RPR 84 TS 65 Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% All bookmaker prices Bet365 - (-) · EW 3/5 William Hill - (-) · EW 3/5 Coral - (-) · EW 3/5 Betfred - (-) · EW 3/5 Boyle Sports - (-) · EW 3/5 Ladbrokes - (-) · EW 3/5 Unibet - (-) · EW 3/5 BetTom - (-) · EW 3/5 Bet Victor - (-) · EW 3/5 10 Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 BetMGM - (-) · EW 3/5 Grosvenor Sports - (-) · EW 3/5 Virgin Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 talkSPORT BET - (-) · EW 3/5 BetWright - (-) · EW 3/5 LiveScore Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 Betano - (-) · EW 3/5 Dragon Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 CopyBet - (-) · EW 3/5 PricedUp Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 BetAhoy - (-) · EW 3/5 Spreadex - (-) · EW 3/5 BresBet - (-) · EW 3/5 BestOdds - (-) · EW 3/5 7Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 Star Sports - (-) · EW 3/5 Midnite - (-) · EW 3/5 SportingIndex - (-) · EW 3/5 Quinn Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 Betfair Exchange - (-) Best-odds movement 14:41 13.00 (Bet365) 22:01 11.00 (Bet365) 00:31 9.50 (Bet365) 09:46 10.00 (William Hill) 12:02 9.50 (Coral) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 86 puts him joint mid-pack, OFR 75 top of the handicap weights for non-top-end. Form 4.0/10 7310-9 — won earlier in cycle but tailed off 9th last time. Connections 4.0/10 Tudhope is a top rider but Easterby yard cold (0 from 28 last 14d, RTF 36). Fitness 7.0/10 33 days since last run — comfortable refresher window. Trip 6.0/10 By Ardad and has 5f form figure '1' on the line, suits sprinting. Pace 6.0/10 Can race prominently which helps in 5f handicap. Draw 4.0/10 Drawn 11 (widest) at Carlisle 5f — slight negative against runners high up. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear change noted. Weight 4.0/10 Top weight 135lb after rating sits at peak. Value 5.0/10 Reasonable each-way profile but no obvious overlay. Σ Summary 51.0/100 Solid mid-pack profile but cold yard and top weight blunt the case. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1537.0 (12 runs, 2 wins, 16.7%) Jockey 1637.4 (7624 runs, 1238 wins, 16.2%) Trainer 1618.6 (2396 runs, 228 wins, 9.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 5f no data Jockey @ 5f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 267r 35w 13% A/E 0.76 (negative) Jockey × trainer 4r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Trainer @ 5f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 77r 8w 10% A/E 0.96 (fair) Sire progeny @ 5f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 810r 71w 9% A/E 0.77 (negative) Dam progeny @ 5f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 21r 3w 14% A/E 1.46 (value) Damsire grand @ 5f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 174r 24w 14% A/E 1.06 (value) Spotlight Opened his handicap account in Chester event (5f, good) last July and perhaps unsuited by softer going in two starts since; chance may depend on the weather's actions. Comment Won on good ground last July; perhaps unsuited by softer going in two runs since ============================================================================== HEAD-TO-HEAD (10 past meetings between today's runners) ============================================================================== 2026-05-18 · Carlisle · 5f · Class 5 · Good Racing TV Handicap 1 Harb (GB) won SP 11/1 2 Fierce (IRE) 0.75L SP 11/2 3 Wen Moon (IRE) 0.50L SP 9/2 4 Keldeo (GB) 5.50L SP 8/1 5 Harry Mole (GB) 0.30L SP 22/1 6 Dc Cogent (GB) 0.50L SP 4/1F 7 Speeding Bullet (IRE) 0.30L SP 11/1 8 Imperial Guard (IRE) 0.50L SP 11/2 9 Hurt You Never (IRE) 2.25L SP 12/1 10 Blue Lakota (IRE) 11.00L SP 7/1 2026-04-07 · Southwell (AW) · 5f · Class 5 · Standard Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap 2 Blue Lakota (IRE) 1.50L SP 7/2 3 Fierce (IRE) 0.75L SP 20/1 2025-11-18 · Newcastle (AW) · 5f · Class 4 · Standard Join The Midnite Movement Handicap (Rider Restricted Race) 5 Fierce (IRE) 2.50L SP 12/1 7 Blue Lakota (IRE) 0.50L SP 11/2 2025-10-21 · Newcastle (AW) · 5f · Class 5 · Standard Midnite Ain't Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap 5 Wen Moon (IRE) 0.30L SP 4/1J 6 Harb (GB) 0.50L SP 11/1 2025-08-06 · Pontefract · 6f · Class 4 · Good To Firm Bet With Jayne - Your Local Bookmaker Handicap 8 Fierce (IRE) 4.00L SP 5/1 10 Imperial Guard (IRE) 0.50L SP 11/2 2025-07-26 · York · 5f · Class 4 · Good Sky Bet 'Jump Jockeys' Nunthorpe' Handicap (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys) 15 Keldeo (GB) 0.75L SP 8/1 16 Wen Moon (IRE) 0.10L SP 20/1 2025-07-15 · Thirsk · 5f · Class 5 · Good To Soft thirskracecourse.net Handicap 4 Dc Cogent (GB) 0.50L SP 15/2 6 Blue Lakota (IRE) 4.00L SP 40/1 2025-06-27 · Newcastle (AW) · 5f · Class 5 · Standard JenningsBet Top Managers Handicap 4 Speeding Bullet (IRE) 0.20L SP 12/1 6 Keldeo (GB) 0.50L SP 4/1 2025-06-07 · Musselburgh · 5f · Class 4 · Good Edinburgh Gin Seaside Handicap 6 Dc Cogent (GB) 0.20L SP 20/1 10 Blue Lakota (IRE) 1.50L SP 33/1 2025-05-13 · Beverley · 5f · Class 5 · Good To Firm Annie Oxtoby Memorial Handicap 3 Keldeo (GB) 0.30L SP 15/2 4 Fierce (IRE) 0.75L SP 4/1 ============================================================================== AI RACE VERDICT ============================================================================== Pace scenario: Mixed pace with no obvious lone-leader — Keldeo and Speeding Bullet typically race handy, Acrisius can press, others come from off it. Likely an honest gallop favouring those travelling well into the closing furlong. Narrative: Competitive Class 5 sprint handicap. Blue Lakota looks the standout on a blend of recent form (216342), second-top RPR 96 and a strong jockey/trainer Elo profile. Imperial Guard has the highest RPR but a 210-day layoff and dismal pre-break form (80696-) make him hard to back with conviction. Speeding Bullet sneaks in from a hot Midgley yard (21% 14d), while Keldeo's improving figures (76-514) on best TS keeps him in the mix. Recommended: Blue Lakota Second-best RPR (96), strongest recent form line (216342) at this level, bottom-ish of weights at 124lb, Kevin Stott aboard for Kevin Ryan with a 1642 trainer Elo profile and a wind-op stripped run already showing improvement. Alternative: Speeding Bullet 21% trainer 14d strike, sound recent form (1422-0) and consistent profile at the trip. ============================================================================== Generated 2026-05-19 13:39 UTC · HorseRacingValue.com · race rac_11944101