============================================================================== RACE: Carlisle ? · 2026-05-18 Join Racing TV Now Handicap Soft · Flat · Turf ============================================================================== Status FINISHED ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. SMOKER BELLAMY (IRE) (#5 · Σ 64.0) 3yo G · Draw 3 · p Connections Jockey Daniel Tudhope Trainer Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole Owner Upton House Stud Chris Stedman Pedigree Sire Zelzal (FR) Dam Pagua (IRE) Damsire Zamindar Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 7.00 (Bet365) 20:22 5.50 (Coral) 22:01 5.00 (Bet365) 00:31 5.50 (Boyle Sports) 03:02 5.00 (Bet365) 09:11 5.50 (Bet365) 10:44 5.00 (Bet365) 10:48 5.50 (Bet365) 11:31 5.00 (Bet365) 11:39 5.50 (Bet365) 12:06 5.00 (Bet365) 12:37 5.50 (Bet365) 14:39 5.00 (Bet365) 15:01 5.50 (Bet365) 15:29 6.00 (Bet365) 15:34 7.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 7.0/10 RPR 67 third-tier in field; OFR 50 reasonable. Form 4.0/10 Form 664-20 — last-time pulled up/tailed off blemishes a previously placed profile. Connections 9.0/10 Tudhope (16% strike) on board with Newland yard (trainer Elo 1671 — highest here, 11% 14d strike). Fitness 7.0/10 25 days off — within sweet spot for a flat handicap. Trip 6.0/10 Form spread suggests 7-8f acceptable; good ground no issue. Pace 6.0/10 Closing style fits expected race shape. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 3 of 10 — neutral. Equipment 6.0/10 Cheekpieces retained after producing a 2nd two starts back. Weight 7.0/10 Lightly weighted at 125lb off OFR 50 — handicapper offers a chance. Value 7.0/10 Jockey upgrade and recent yard support likely underestimated by public on last-out 0. Σ Summary 64.0/100 Connections-and-mark angle balances the moderate form line. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1441.7 (6 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1637.4 (7624 runs, 1238 wins, 16.2%) Trainer 1670.9 (1099 runs, 131 wins, 11.9%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 1m no data Jockey @ 1m no data Jockey @ Carlisle 267r 35w 13% A/E 0.76 (negative) Jockey × trainer 4r 1w 25% A/E 1.11 (value) Trainer @ 1m no data Trainer @ Carlisle 15r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Sire progeny @ 1m no data Sire progeny in Class 6 66r 5w 8% A/E 0.58 (negative) Dam progeny @ 1m no data Dam progeny in Class 6 3r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 1m no data Damsire grand in Class 6 833r 74w 9% A/E 0.78 (negative) Past form (last 7 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 1m Soft Cla 7/10 11/2 1.00L 50 67 Daniel Tudhope Slowly away - in rear throughout (jockey said gelding missed the break)(op 9/2) 2026-04-23 Beverley 1m2f Good To F Cla 11/12 4/1 1.75L 50 1 Jack Doughty Pulled hard - led - raced awkwardly and hit rail over 2f out - soon headed and lost ground quickly - lost touch 1f out (jockey said gelding weakened quickly)(op 7/2) 2026-04-10 Wolverhampton 1m1½f Standard Cla 2/9 11/1 3.50L 50 52 Hollie Doyle Disputed lead - led after 2f - pushed along but clear 2f out - headed over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong(op 10/1) 2025-08-11 Kempton (AW) 1m Standard Cla 4/8 9/2 1.50L 52 39 Rossa Ryan In rear - stumbled under 5f out - steady headway from over 3f out - kept on but not pace to challenge(op 4/1 tchd 5/1) 2025-07-31 Epsom 7f Good To S Cla 6/6 40/1 1.50L — 40 Gina Mangan In touch with leaders - weakened from under 2f out (jockey said gelding ran green)(op 66/1 tchd 80/1) 2025-07-19 Doncaster 7f Good Cla 6/8 40/1 0.75L — 49 Gina Mangan Dwelt start - always behind(op 50/1) 2025-06-14 Leicester 7f Good To F Cla 8/8 33/1 0.30L — 22 Pat Cosgrave Dwelt start - in rear throughout(op 25/1) Comment Slowly away - in rear throughout (jockey said gelding missed the break)(op 9/2) Finishing result Position 7 SP 11/2 (6.500) Beaten (L) 1.00 Total beaten 14.25 OR after 50 In-running comment Slowly away - in rear throughout (jockey said gelding missed the break)(op 9/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2. MERESIDE PRINCESS (IRE) (#7 · Σ 64.0) 3yo F · Draw 9 · b Connections Jockey Mark Winn Trainer David & Nicola Barron Owner Mereside Racing Limited Partner Pedigree Sire Cotai Glory (GB) Dam Dark Seductress (IRE) Damsire Dark Angel Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 5.00 (Bet365) 20:22 5.50 (Bet365) 09:11 6.00 (Coral) 09:55 6.50 (Coral) 09:59 7.00 (Coral) 10:05 6.50 (Coral) 10:44 7.00 (Coral) 12:51 6.50 (Coral) 15:10 7.00 (Coral) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 8.0/10 RPR 70 is highest in the field, OFR 49 mid-pack but RPR gap signals genuine class edge. Form 7.0/10 Form 376643 — placed last time, consistently in the frame for a maiden. Connections 6.0/10 Barron yard Elo 1657 decent but trainer 14d strike 0/7 is cold; Mark Winn 11% strike useful. Fitness 9.0/10 Just 10 days since last run — sharpest in the race. Trip 6.0/10 Form figures at staying 7-8f trips suggest the distance is fine on good ground. Pace 6.0/10 Hold-up profile suits a likely even-pace contest. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 9 of 10 at Carlisle 7f173y is fairly neutral on this course. Equipment 6.0/10 Blinkers reapplied — has run respectably in them previously. Weight 6.0/10 124lb in a 0-60, lower-middle of the handicap, workable from OFR 49. Value 7.0/10 Form-and-fitness combo likely underpriced versus market favouring higher-RPR but out-of-form rivals. Σ Summary 64.0/100 Sum of components reflects the most balanced profile in a weak heat. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1501.4 (12 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1581.5 (1286 runs, 136 wins, 10.6%) Trainer 1657.3 (950 runs, 98 wins, 10.3%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 1m no data Jockey @ 1m no data Jockey @ Carlisle 41r 7w 17% A/E 1.37 (value) Jockey × trainer 4r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Trainer @ 1m no data Trainer @ Carlisle 28r 5w 18% A/E 1.46 (value) Sire progeny @ 1m no data Sire progeny in Class 6 545r 70w 13% A/E 0.87 (fair) Dam progeny @ 1m no data Dam progeny in Class 6 10r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 1m no data Damsire grand in Class 6 1297r 126w 10% A/E 0.80 (negative) Past form (last 13 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 1m Soft Cla 1/10 7/2 won 49 67 Mark Winn Made all - led field to near side home straight - ridden 2f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 6/1) 2026-05-08 Ripon 1m2f Good Cla 3/8 11/1 6.00L 50 66 William Pyle Prominent on inner - outpaced over 3f out - soon hung left - rallying from 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 17/2 tchd 12/1) 2026-04-26 Wetherby 1m Good To F Cla 4/8 7/2 0.50L 51 51 Connor Beasley Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - headway and pressed leader over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 3/1) 2026-04-20 Redcar 1m Good To F Cla 6/12 9/1 0.20L 51 47 William Pyle Took keen hold - in rear - switched to far side over 6f out - headway inside final furlong - not reach leaders (jockey said filly ran too free)(op 11/1) 2026-03-26 Southwell (AW 7f Standard Cla 6/12 9/1 0.50L 53 45 William Pyle Raced wide early - prominent - led after 1f - headed over 2f out - short of room when weakening inside final furlong(op 10/1) 2026-03-05 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 7/12 17/2 0.20L 55 47 William Pyle Took keen hold - midfield - in touch with leaders 2f out - weakened from over 1f out(op 12/1 tchd 8/1) 2026-01-01 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 3/8 12/1 1.75L 57 47 Rob Hornby Held up in rear - headway against near rail over 1f out - went third inside final furlong - never dangerous(op 16/1) 2025-12-12 Southwell (AW 7f Standard Cla 4/9 9/1 1.00L 58 46 Lewis Edmunds In touch with leaders - prominent 2f out - weakened from over 1f out(op 8/1) 2025-11-18 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 3/6 9/1 1.50L 59 51 William Pyle Took keen hold - midfield - headway 2f out - outpaced over 1f out - kept on(op 8/1) 2025-11-06 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 3/10 33/1 1.50L 59 52 William Pyle Dwelt start - in rear - headway on far side of group over 1f out - went third inside final 110yds - kept on(op 40/1) 2025-10-13 Musselburgh 7f Good Cla 8/8 125/1 2.50L — — Billy Garritty Always behind - hung right over 2f out - tailed off(op 66/1) 2025-10-01 Catterick 7f Soft Cla 4/8 33/1 2.00L — 54 Billy Garritty Took keen hold - prominent - switched to near side over 2f out - outpaced over 1f out - soon no extra (jockey said filly hung right-handed throughout)(op 50/1 tchd 66/1) 2025-09-19 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 10/12 40/1 2.50L — 41 Billy Garritty Dwelt start and ducked right start - towards rear - in touch with leaders after 2f - short of room and lost position 2f out - soon waiting for room - weakened final furlong (jockey said filly hung right-handed throughout and was briefly denied a clear run) Comment Made all - led field to near side home straight - ridden 2f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 6/1) Finishing result Position 1 SP 7/2 (4.500) Beaten (L) 0.00 Total beaten 0.00 OR after 49 In-running comment Made all - led field to near side home straight - ridden 2f out - ran on inside final furlong(op 6/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3. COBALT COMET (GB) (#3 · Σ 57.0) 3yo G · Draw 5 · h Connections Jockey Cam Hardie Trainer John Mackie Owner J Payne Pedigree Sire Massaat (IRE) Dam Primanora (GB) Damsire First Trump Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 5.00 (Bet365) 16:01 6.00 (Coral) 18:02 6.50 (William Hill) 21:40 7.00 (7Bet) 00:31 7.50 (Bet Victor) 03:02 8.00 (Betfred) 09:11 8.50 (Betfred) 11:04 9.00 (Betfred) 14:39 9.50 (Betfred) 15:22 9.00 (Coral) 15:29 9.50 (Unibet) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 67 in line with mid-tier, OFR 58 fair. Form 6.0/10 Form 0663 shows steady improvement to placed last time. Connections 4.0/10 Trainer 14d 0r0w (idle yard), Hardie 5% career strike rate. Fitness 7.0/10 25 days off — acceptable. Trip 6.0/10 7f trip looks fine on form profile. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-pack runner. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 5 of 10 — central. Equipment 6.0/10 Hood retained after producing the form upturn. Weight 6.0/10 133lb mid-table weight off OFR 58. Value 6.0/10 Improving filly often underbet — fair price likely available. Σ Summary 57.0/100 Profile is on the up but weak yard activity tempers conviction. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1477.9 (4 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1507.9 (7327 runs, 396 wins, 5.4%) Trainer 1565.9 (1469 runs, 140 wins, 9.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 1m no data Jockey @ 1m no data Jockey @ Carlisle 83r 3w 4% A/E 0.58 (negative) Jockey × trainer 28r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Trainer @ 1m no data Trainer @ Carlisle 73r 5w 7% A/E 0.58 (negative) Sire progeny @ 1m no data Sire progeny in Class 6 363r 29w 8% A/E 0.77 (negative) Dam progeny @ 1m no data Dam progeny in Class 6 6r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 1m no data Damsire grand in Class 6 823r 80w 10% A/E 0.98 (fair) Past form (last 5 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 1m Soft Cla 3/10 17/2 0.30L 58 67 Cam Hardie Prominent - disputing second 2f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 8/1 tchd 15/2) 2026-04-23 Southwell (AW 1m Standard Cla 3/6 66/1 0.50L 57 60 James Sullivan In touch with leaders - carried left but kept on from 1f out(op 50/1) 2026-04-05 Southwell (AW 7f Standard Cla 6/10 150/1 4.00L — 40 Cam Hardie In rear - some headway from over 1f out 2026-03-21 Southwell (AW 1m Standard Cla 6/9 200/1 3.00L — 55 James Sullivan Slowly into stride - in rear - no impression(op 150/1) 2026-02-07 Southwell (AW 1m Standard Cla 11/12 125/1 0.50L — 29 Cam Hardie Dwelt start - in rear throughout(op 66/1) Comment Prominent - disputing second 2f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 8/1 tchd 15/2) Finishing result Position 3 SP 17/2 (9.500) Beaten (L) 0.30 Total beaten 1.75 OR after 58 In-running comment Prominent - disputing second 2f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 8/1 tchd 15/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4. TOO DARN SPICY (GB) (#1 · Σ 56.0) 3yo F · Draw 1 Connections Jockey Jack Garritty Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey Owner R A Fahey Pedigree Sire Too Darn Hot (GB) Dam Betty Crean L A (IRE) Damsire Kingman Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 8.50 (Bet365) 16:42 9.00 (Bet365) 18:02 9.50 (Coral) 18:20 10.00 (BetWright) 00:31 11.00 (William Hill) 03:02 12.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 17.00 (Coral) 09:59 21.00 (Coral) 10:05 23.00 (Coral) 15:22 26.00 (Coral) 15:24 23.00 (Bet365) 15:29 26.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 7.0/10 RPR 68 second-highest, OFR 60 joint-top weight. Form 4.0/10 3 then 5,8,8 — clear regression line since the encouraging debut placing. Connections 7.0/10 Fahey yard 13% 14d, jockey Garritty 9% strike. Fitness 8.0/10 16 days off — well within sharp window. Trip 6.0/10 Stays 7f+ comfortably by pedigree (Too Darn Hot). Pace 5.0/10 Mid-pack runner in even-paced contest. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 1 of 10 — neutral at Carlisle 7f. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear change. Weight 4.0/10 Top weight 135lb in a 0-60 caps profitability. Value 5.0/10 Public may overrate on Fahey/RPR; recent drift in form tempers. Σ Summary 56.0/100 Decent ingredients but weight and declining figures cap the score. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1446.3 (4 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1513.9 (3234 runs, 294 wins, 9.1%) Trainer 1637.0 (105 runs, 11 wins, 10.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 1m no data Jockey @ 1m no data Jockey @ Carlisle 142r 12w 8% A/E 0.72 (negative) Jockey × trainer 1r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Trainer @ 1m no data Trainer @ Carlisle no data Sire progeny @ 1m no data Sire progeny in Class 6 184r 22w 12% A/E 0.89 (fair) Dam progeny @ 1m no data Dam progeny in Class 6 1r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 1m no data Damsire grand in Class 6 76r 7w 9% A/E 0.61 (negative) Past form (last 5 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 1m Soft Cla 5/10 22/1 9.00L 60 67 Jack Garritty In rear - hung right from 2f out - some headway final furlong(tchd 25/1) 2026-05-02 Doncaster 7f Good To F Cla 8/9 14/1 5.50L 62 36 Harry Russell Towards rear - switched left over 2f out - weakened from over 1f out(op 16/1 and tchd 18/1) 2026-04-13 Newcastle (AW 1m Standard Cla 8/8 50/1 4.00L — 28 Cam Hardie Held up in rear - no impression(op 22/1) 2026-03-19 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 5/11 66/1 2.75L — 43 Warren Fentiman Midfield - no impression from over 1f out(op 40/1 tchd 33/1) 2026-03-05 Newcastle (AW 1m Standard Cla 3/4 28/1 3.00L — 63 Cam Hardie In rear and ran green - some headway from over 3f out - weakened from 2f out(tchd 22/1 and tchd 33/1) Comment In rear - hung right from 2f out - some headway final furlong(tchd 25/1) Finishing result Position 5 SP 22/1 (23.000) Beaten (L) 9.00 Total beaten 12.25 OR after 60 In-running comment In rear - hung right from 2f out - some headway final furlong(tchd 25/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5. THANKFULLY SIMMY (GB) (#2 · Σ 55.0) 3yo G · Draw 6 · p Connections Jockey David Nolan Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey Owner Middleham Park Racing Xxviii Pedigree Sire Mehmas (IRE) Dam Always Thankful (GB) Damsire Showcasing Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 6.00 (Bet365) 18:20 5.50 (Bet365) 20:22 6.00 (Bet365) 09:11 5.50 (Bet365) 10:19 6.00 (Bet365) 10:44 5.50 (Bet365) 10:48 6.00 (Bet365) 11:10 5.50 (Bet365) 11:39 6.00 (Bet365) 12:06 5.50 (Bet365) 12:10 6.00 (Bet365) 12:22 5.50 (Bet365) 12:31 6.00 (Bet365) 12:45 5.50 (Bet365) 15:29 6.00 (Bet365) 15:34 6.50 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 RPR 63 mid-low, OFR 60 top weight pairing seems generous. Form 5.0/10 54-246 — last out 6, two backers prior placed. Connections 7.0/10 Fahey 13% 14d strike, Nolan reliable 11% jockey. Fitness 7.0/10 23 days off — fine. Trip 6.0/10 Mehmas progeny effective at 7f. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-division runner. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 6 — neutral. Equipment 6.0/10 Cheekpieces stay on after producing best run. Weight 4.0/10 135lb top weight in a 0-60. Value 5.0/10 Reasonable each-way play but no obvious overlay. Σ Summary 55.0/100 Solid mid-pack profile without a clear edge. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1514.8 (6 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1573.1 (4163 runs, 449 wins, 10.8%) Trainer 1637.0 (105 runs, 11 wins, 10.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 1m no data Jockey @ 1m no data Jockey @ Carlisle 164r 14w 9% A/E 0.78 (negative) Jockey × trainer 4r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Trainer @ 1m no data Trainer @ Carlisle no data Sire progeny @ 1m no data Sire progeny in Class 6 1105r 122w 11% A/E 0.85 (fair) Dam progeny @ 1m no data Dam progeny in Class 6 4r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 1m no data Damsire grand in Class 6 412r 45w 11% A/E 1.00 (fair) Past form (last 7 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 1m Soft Cla 6/10 6/1 1.00L 60 69 David Nolan In touch with leaders - weakened over 1f out(op 9/2) 2026-04-25 Doncaster 7f Good To F Cla 6/12 12/1 0.20L 62 51 Oisin McSweeney In rear - ridden over 1f out - stayed on inside final 110yds - never near to challenge(op 9/1) 2026-03-21 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 4/7 4/1 1.25L 64 55 Cam Hardie Took keen hold - prominent - pressed leader from over 3f out - weakened from over 2f out 2026-02-07 Lingfield (AW 6f Standard Cla 2/5 7/2 5.50L 65 55 Warren Fentiman Dwelt start - towards rear but in touch with leaders - headway over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong - went second final strides - nearest finish 2025-12-09 Newcastle (AW 5f Standard Cla 4/7 7/1 2.25L — 58 Harry Russell In rear - in touch with leaders from 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 15/2 tchd 13/2) 2025-11-22 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 5/10 16/1 1.25L — 58 Harry Russell Dwelt start - in rear - headway when not clear run over 1f out - switched right and kept on inside final furlong - not reach leaders(op 28/1) 2025-10-23 Chelmsford (A 6f Standard Cla 4/9 22/1 1.75L — 56 Ryan Sexton Slowly into stride - towards rear - headway from over 1f out - kept on but no impression inside final furlong(op 16/1 tchd 25/1) Comment In touch with leaders - weakened over 1f out(op 9/2) Finishing result Position 6 SP 6/1 (7.000) Beaten (L) 1.00 Total beaten 13.25 OR after 60 In-running comment In touch with leaders - weakened over 1f out(op 9/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6. HATAMOTO (GB) (#4 · Σ 53.0) 3yo G · Draw 10 Connections Jockey Sean Kirrane Trainer Tim Easterby Owner Dave Stone Pedigree Sire Tasleet (GB) Dam Vote Often (GB) Damsire Beat Hollow Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 4.00 (Bet365) 16:42 3.75 (Betfred) 17:00 3.50 (Bet365) 18:20 3.25 (Bet365) 20:22 3.50 (Bet365) 21:40 3.25 (Bet365) 10:05 3.00 (BetWright) 10:11 2.90 (7Bet) 10:48 2.88 (Bet365) 11:10 2.90 (7Bet) 11:31 2.88 (Bet365) 11:50 2.90 (7Bet) 11:56 2.88 (Bet365) 12:06 2.90 (7Bet) 12:16 2.88 (Bet365) 12:22 2.90 (7Bet) 12:39 3.00 (Bet365) 13:24 2.90 (7Bet) 13:30 3.00 (Bet365) 14:35 2.90 (7Bet) 15:10 2.75 (William Hill) 15:29 2.63 (William Hill) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 64, OFR 55 mid-tier; TS 63 best in race a plus. Form 4.0/10 55-6 from three starts — beaten on each occasion. Connections 7.0/10 Easterby Elo 1635, 86 runs 14d for 9 wins (10%); Kirrane 10% strike. Fitness 6.0/10 40 days since last run — second-run-from-break angle moderate. Trip 6.0/10 7f173y around suitable bend trip. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-pack. Draw 3.0/10 Stall 10 of 10 — widest berth, slight disadvantage round Carlisle's turning 7f. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear. Weight 6.0/10 130lb mid-weight. Value 5.0/10 TS figure may attract speed-fig bettors and overprice him. Σ Summary 53.0/100 Quality yard signal offset by wide draw and modest form. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1510.3 (3 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1615.5 (2008 runs, 203 wins, 10.1%) Trainer 1635.0 (11825 runs, 1281 wins, 10.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 1m no data Jockey @ 1m no data Jockey @ Carlisle 73r 10w 14% A/E 1.15 (value) Jockey × trainer 792r 83w 10% A/E 0.88 (fair) Trainer @ 1m no data Trainer @ Carlisle 1260r 124w 10% A/E 0.78 (negative) Sire progeny @ 1m no data Sire progeny in Class 6 242r 28w 12% A/E 0.91 (fair) Dam progeny @ 1m no data Dam progeny in Class 6 9r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 1m no data Damsire grand in Class 6 440r 56w 13% A/E 0.93 (fair) Past form (last 4 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 1m Soft Cla 2/10 13/8F 1.50L 55 64 Sean Kirrane Raced in second - switched right over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(tchd 11/8) 2026-04-08 Catterick 7f Good Cla 6/11 80/1 2.25L — 48 Duran Fentiman Midfield - weakened 2f out(op 50/1) 2025-07-25 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 5/12 80/1 4.00L — 51 Duran Fentiman Dwelt start - in rear - some headway halfway - no extra over 1f out(op 50/1 tchd 40/1) 2025-07-11 Chester 6f Good Cla 5/10 25/1 0.30L — 54 Duran Fentiman Midfield - took keen hold 4f out - nudged along when stayed on inside final furlong(op 22/1 tchd 28/1) Comment Raced in second - switched right over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(tchd 11/8) Finishing result Position 2 SP 13/8F (2.620) Beaten (L) 1.50 Total beaten 1.50 OR after 55 In-running comment Raced in second - switched right over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(tchd 11/8) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7. THE FLOORS MUNKY (GB) (#8 · Σ 52.0) 3yo G · Draw 4 Connections Jockey Amie Waugh Trainer Gary Rutherford Owner Gary Jon Rutherford Pedigree Sire Gustav Klimt (IRE) Dam Fastnet View (IRE) Damsire Fastnet Rock Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 34.00 (Bet365) 16:01 36.00 (7Bet) 20:22 41.00 (Bet365) 00:31 51.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 67.00 (CopyBet) 09:59 71.00 (7Bet) 10:11 67.00 (Bet Victor) 10:17 71.00 (7Bet) 10:31 67.00 (Bet Victor) 13:08 51.00 (Bet365) 15:16 41.00 (Bet365) 15:34 36.00 (7Bet) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 8.0/10 RPR 71 top of the field, OFR 47 attractive mark on best form. Form 2.0/10 5-700 — tailed off in last two starts, regressive. Connections 3.0/10 Rutherford 14d 0r3w0%, Amie Waugh(3) jockey Elo 1475 — weakest pairing in race. Fitness 7.0/10 11 days — quick reappearance. Trip 6.0/10 7f trip plausible by pedigree. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-pack. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 4 of 10 — neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear change despite poor form — slight negative. Weight 7.0/10 122lb after handicap drop is workable. Value 4.0/10 RPR-chasers will overbet despite the form collapse. Σ Summary 52.0/100 Ratings clash sharply with form — net negative. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1425.6 (4 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1475.2 (1026 runs, 60 wins, 5.8%) Trainer 1515.7 (182 runs, 12 wins, 6.6%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 1m no data Jockey @ 1m no data Jockey @ Carlisle 60r 3w 5% A/E 0.64 (negative) Jockey × trainer 24r 1w 4% A/E 0.45 (negative) Trainer @ 1m no data Trainer @ Carlisle 21r 3w 14% A/E 1.36 (value) Sire progeny @ 1m no data Sire progeny in Class 6 106r 12w 11% A/E 0.76 (negative) Dam progeny @ 1m no data Dam progeny in Class 6 1r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 1m no data Damsire grand in Class 6 460r 31w 7% A/E 0.59 (negative) Past form (last 5 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 1m Soft Cla 9/10 33/1 2.75L 47 65 Amie Waugh Prominent - weakened up the centre from 2f out(tchd 28/1) 2026-05-07 Redcar 6f Good Cla 11/14 50/1 0.30L 50 58 Amie Waugh Towards rear throughout(op 66/1) 2026-04-08 Catterick 7f Good Cla 10/11 300/1 14.00L — — Alex Jary Always behind(op 125/1) 2026-03-21 Newcastle (AW 1m Standard Cla 7/8 200/1 4.00L — 9 Alex Jary In touch with leaders - weakened from 3f out(tchd 150/1) 2025-08-22 Hamilton 1m½f Good To F Cla 5/6 50/1 0.50L — 60 Greg Fairley Took keen hold - prominent - weakened from 2f out(op 33/1) Comment Prominent - weakened up the centre from 2f out(tchd 28/1) Finishing result Position 9 SP 33/1 (34.000) Beaten (L) 2.75 Total beaten 19.25 OR after 47 In-running comment Prominent - weakened up the centre from 2f out(tchd 28/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 8. DANDY ORTON (IRE) (#9 · Σ 46.0) 3yo G · Draw 2 · h Connections Jockey Andrew Mullen Trainer Wilf Storey Owner Wilfstoreyracingclub Pedigree Sire Dandy Man (IRE) Dam Gali Girl (IRE) Damsire Canford Cliffs Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 17.00 (Bet365) 16:01 23.00 (CopyBet) 21:22 26.00 (7Bet) 00:31 29.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 34.00 (Coral) 09:59 41.00 (Coral) 10:44 51.00 (Coral) 15:10 67.00 (Coral) 15:24 51.00 (Bet365) 15:29 67.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 3.0/10 RPR 54 second-lowest, OFR 46 bottom. Form 3.0/10 5755-6 — never close to winning. Connections 3.0/10 Storey 14d 0/2, Mullen 8% strike, trainer Elo 1432 weak. Fitness 7.0/10 15 days off — fine. Trip 5.0/10 7f trip plausible for Dandy Man progeny. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-pack. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 2 — neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 Hood retained — no new angle. Weight 7.0/10 121lb bottom weight a small plus. Value 3.0/10 No edge over market consensus. Σ Summary 46.0/100 Profile too light to make a serious case. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1398.8 (6 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1510.6 (6965 runs, 564 wins, 8.1%) Trainer 1432.3 (682 runs, 52 wins, 7.6%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 1m no data Jockey @ 1m no data Jockey @ Carlisle 326r 21w 6% A/E 0.76 (negative) Jockey × trainer 6r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Trainer @ 1m no data Trainer @ Carlisle 292r 21w 7% A/E 0.84 (negative) Sire progeny @ 1m no data Sire progeny in Class 6 3560r 375w 11% A/E 0.87 (fair) Dam progeny @ 1m no data Dam progeny in Class 6 3r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 1m no data Damsire grand in Class 6 397r 38w 10% A/E 0.92 (fair) Past form (last 7 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 1m Soft Cla 8/10 50/1 2.25L 46 54 Andrew Mullen Slowly into stride - never better than midfield 2026-05-03 Hamilton 6f Good Cla 6/8 50/1 3.50L 46 21 Andrew Mullen Always behind(op 40/1) 2025-07-30 Leicester 5f Good Cla 5/7 33/1 2.75L 46 27 Sean D Bowen Led narrowly - hung left 2f out - soon headed - weakened gradually from over 1f out 2025-07-22 Lingfield 5f Good To S Cla 5/5 6/1 1.25L 46 34 Trevor Whelan Took keen hold - in rear - brief headway over 1f out - weakened gradually inside final furlong(op 9/2 tchd 4/1) 2025-06-25 Bath 5½f Firm Cla 7/7 80/1 2.00L — 38 Ray Dawson Dwelt start - took keen hold - never better than midfield(op 66/1) 2025-06-09 Brighton 5½f Good To F Cla 5/5 33/1 4.00L — 29 Nicola Currie Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - weakened over 1f out(op 25/1) 2025-05-30 Brighton 6f Good Cla 7/9 22/1 4.75L — 43 Nicola Currie Slowly away - always behind(op 16/1) Comment Slowly into stride - never better than midfield Finishing result Position 8 SP 50/1 (51.000) Beaten (L) 2.25 Total beaten 16.50 OR after 46 In-running comment Slowly into stride - never better than midfield ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9. HELIOS PATH (IRE) (#6 · Σ 45.0) 3yo G · Draw 8 Connections Jockey P J McDonald Trainer Steph Hollinshead Owner Danny Fantom Racing Ltd Pedigree Sire Coulsty (IRE) Dam Luxie (IRE) Damsire Acclamation Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 15.00 (Bet365) 16:01 17.00 (Coral) 20:22 19.00 (Bet365) 21:40 21.00 (Midnite) 09:36 23.00 (Bet Victor) 11:04 21.00 (Betfred) 11:10 19.00 (Betfred) 11:17 17.00 (Bet365) 13:41 19.00 (Bet365) 13:43 17.00 (Bet365) 14:45 19.00 (Bet365) 15:29 21.00 (Bet365) 15:34 23.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 RPR 64 mid-pack, OFR 49 unexceptional. Form 3.0/10 0-58 — tailed off then 8th. Connections 5.0/10 Hollinshead 14d 1/7, RTF 75 best signal; McDonald 12% strike. Fitness 7.0/10 22 days off — fresh enough. Trip 5.0/10 7f trip untried at this length. Pace 5.0/10 Mid-pack. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 8 — neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear. Weight 6.0/10 124lb low weight a plus. Value 4.0/10 Limited support warranted. Σ Summary 45.0/100 RTF flickers but core profile thin. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1437.3 (3 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1572.7 (7964 runs, 954 wins, 12.0%) Trainer 1478.3 (1076 runs, 73 wins, 6.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 1m no data Jockey @ 1m no data Jockey @ Carlisle 363r 47w 13% A/E 0.95 (fair) Jockey × trainer 12r 1w 8% A/E 0.78 (negative) Trainer @ 1m no data Trainer @ Carlisle 23r 6w 26% A/E 2.95 (value) Sire progeny @ 1m no data Sire progeny in Class 6 220r 35w 16% A/E 1.11 (value) Dam progeny @ 1m no data Dam progeny in Class 6 31r 3w 10% A/E 0.68 (negative) Damsire grand @ 1m no data Damsire grand in Class 6 2072r 201w 10% A/E 0.81 (negative) Past form (last 4 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 1m Soft Cla 10/10 18/1 0.75L 49 64 P J McDonald Midfield - weakened over 1f out(tchd 20/1) 2026-04-26 Wetherby 1m Good To F Cla 8/8 300/1 4.50L — 48 Joanna Mason Took keen hold - towards rear - weakened over 1f out(op 150/1) 2026-04-09 Wolverhampton 1m1½f Standard Cla 5/8 66/1 12.00L — 27 Callum Shepherd Never better than midfield(op 50/1) 2025-10-30 Bath 1m Soft Cla 10/11 66/1 22.00L — — Dougie Costello Never better than midfield (vet reported gelding lost his left-fore shoe) Comment Midfield - weakened over 1f out(tchd 20/1) Finishing result Position 10 SP 18/1 (19.000) Beaten (L) 0.75 Total beaten 20.00 OR after 49 In-running comment Midfield - weakened over 1f out(tchd 20/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10. ROYAL BARONESS (GB) (#10 · Σ 37.0) 3yo F · Draw 7 Connections Jockey Rhys Elliott Trainer R Mike Smith Owner Steve Dick Pedigree Sire Frontiersman (GB) Dam Royal Duchess (GB) Damsire Dutch Art Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 51.00 (Bet365) 09:11 71.00 (7Bet) 09:28 67.00 (Betfred) 09:36 51.00 (Bet365) 10:05 41.00 (Bet365) 11:04 36.00 (7Bet) 11:10 34.00 (Bet365) 11:23 36.00 (7Bet) 11:31 41.00 (Bet365) 15:10 36.00 (7Bet) 15:22 34.00 (Bet365) 15:34 31.00 (7Bet) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 2.0/10 RPR 53 worst in field, OFR 46 joint bottom. Form 2.0/10 660- — well beaten on every start before the absence. Connections 3.0/10 Smith yard 0/20 14d, Elliott(5) jockey Elo 1465; trainer Elo 1433 weak. Fitness 2.0/10 213 days off — comfortably in the heavily negative bracket. Trip 5.0/10 7f trip plausible. Pace 4.0/10 Tailed off types unlikely to figure. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 7 — neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear listed. Weight 7.0/10 121lb bottom weight the only obvious plus. Value 2.0/10 Cold yard + long layoff = avoid. Σ Summary 37.0/100 Bottom-rated across most dimensions. Verdict Avoid ELO Horse 1444.5 (3 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1464.7 (576 runs, 33 wins, 5.7%) Trainer 1433.3 (1814 runs, 135 wins, 7.4%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 1m no data Jockey @ 1m no data Jockey @ Carlisle 22r 1w 5% A/E 0.55 (negative) Jockey × trainer 59r 3w 5% A/E 0.63 (negative) Trainer @ 1m no data Trainer @ Carlisle 100r 6w 6% A/E 0.73 (negative) Sire progeny @ 1m no data Sire progeny in Class 6 21r 5w 24% A/E 1.50 (value) Dam progeny @ 1m no data Dam progeny in Class 6 17r 3w 18% A/E 1.45 (value) Damsire grand @ 1m no data Damsire grand in Class 6 1135r 110w 10% A/E 0.75 (negative) Past form (last 4 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 1m Soft Cla 4/10 22/1 1.50L 46 53 Rhys Elliott In rear - headway over 2f out - went fourth over 1f out - stayed on(op 28/1 tchd 20/1) 2025-10-17 Haydock 6f Good Cla 11/11 300/1 0.20L — 24 Clifford Lee In rear throughout(op 150/1) 2025-09-30 Ayr 6f Soft Cla 6/8 250/1 6.50L — 34 Rhys Elliott Slowly away - always behind(op 125/1) 2025-09-18 Ayr 1m Good To S Cla 6/7 150/1 7.00L — 34 Rhys Elliott Reluctant to load - dwelt start - towards rear throughout(op 80/1) Comment In rear - headway over 2f out - went fourth over 1f out - stayed on(op 28/1 tchd 20/1) Finishing result Position 4 SP 22/1 (23.000) Beaten (L) 1.50 Total beaten 3.25 OR after 46 In-running comment In rear - headway over 2f out - went fourth over 1f out - stayed on(op 28/1 tchd 20/1) ============================================================================== HEAD-TO-HEAD (2 past meetings between today's runners) ============================================================================== 2026-05-18 · Carlisle · 1m · Class 6 · Soft Join Racing TV Now Handicap 1 Mereside Princess (IRE) won SP 7/2 2 Hatamoto (GB) 1.50L SP 13/8F 3 Cobalt Comet (GB) 0.30L SP 17/2 4 Royal Baroness (GB) 1.50L SP 22/1 5 Too Darn Spicy (GB) 9.00L SP 22/1 6 Thankfully Simmy (GB) 1.00L SP 6/1 7 Smoker Bellamy (IRE) 1.00L SP 11/2 8 Dandy Orton (IRE) 2.25L SP 50/1 9 The Floors Munky (GB) 2.75L SP 33/1 10 Helios Path (IRE) 0.75L SP 18/1 2026-04-08 · Catterick · 7f · Class 4 · Good Visit racingtv.com Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) 6 Hatamoto (GB) 2.25L SP 80/1 10 The Floors Munky (GB) 14.00L SP 300/1 ============================================================================== AI RACE VERDICT ============================================================================== Pace scenario: Likely even tempo over 7f173y on good ground; no confirmed front-runner, so hold-up types with a turn of foot (Mereside Princess, Smoker Bellamy) should be well-placed late. Narrative: Low-grade 0-60 Carlisle handicap with no obvious standout. Mereside Princess sets the form benchmark on RPR 70 with the most consistent recent profile and the quickest turnaround (10d). Smoker Bellamy gets the strongest jockey upgrade in Tudhope and runs from a workable mark off a wind-test-style 0 last time. Too Darn Spicy, Cobalt Comet and Hatamoto are the next tier. With Class 6 maidens at the foot of the weights, plenty can plausibly hit the frame. Recommended: Mereside Princess Top RPR in the field (70), most recent run (10d), consistent placed form (376643), proven at this level with blinkers on and a decent trainer Elo (1657). Alternative: Smoker Bellamy Highest-rated jockey/trainer Elo combo in the race (Tudhope 1637, Newland yard 1671), bottom-weight at 125lb, RPR 67 is competitive. ============================================================================== Generated 2026-05-19 13:40 UTC · HorseRacingValue.com · race rac_11944114