============================================================================== RACE: Carlisle ? · 2026-05-18 Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Soft · Flat · Turf ============================================================================== Status FINISHED ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. BLACK STORM (IRE) (#6 · Σ 67.0) 5yo G · Draw 4 Connections Jockey Daniel Tudhope Trainer Katie Scott Owner Ursa Major Racing Ltd Pedigree Sire Ten Sovereigns (IRE) Dam Active Approach (GB) Damsire New Approach Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 7.00 (Bet365) 15:01 5.50 (Bet365) 17:41 6.50 (Bet365) 18:02 6.00 (Bet365) 19:20 6.50 (Bet365) 19:41 7.00 (Bet365) 20:41 7.50 (Bet365) 09:11 5.00 (Bet365) 09:55 5.50 (Bet365) 10:05 5.00 (Bet365) 10:52 5.50 (Bet365) 11:39 6.00 (Bet365) 12:10 5.50 (Bet365) 12:16 6.00 (Unibet) 12:29 5.50 (Bet365) 14:45 6.00 (Unibet) 15:01 5.50 (Bet365) 15:51 5.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 8.0/10 RPR 86 highest excluding two 89s — clear top-end ability. Form 7.0/10 Form 2230-4 — three placings then comeback 4th, very consistent. Connections 6.0/10 Tudhope's jockey Elo 1637 a clear plus; Scott yard 0/9 in 14d a minus. Fitness 7.0/10 19 days from comeback run — second start post-wind surgery often peak. Trip 6.0/10 Comfortable around 6-7f range. Pace 6.0/10 Stalking style suits. Draw 7.0/10 Stall 4 — handy at Carlisle. Equipment 7.0/10 Second run after wind surgery — classic improvement angle. Weight 6.0/10 130lb off OFR 69 — well in. Value 7.0/10 Wind surgery + Tudhope often missed by market. Σ Summary 67.0/100 Wind-op return horse with Tudhope and a consistent placed profile. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1600.3 (13 runs, 1 wins, 7.7%) Jockey 1637.4 (7624 runs, 1238 wins, 16.2%) Trainer 1537.1 (1343 runs, 94 wins, 7.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 267r 35w 13% A/E 0.76 (negative) Jockey × trainer no data Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 93r 4w 4% A/E 0.57 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 291r 32w 11% A/E 0.74 (negative) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 5r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 1187r 139w 12% A/E 0.84 (negative) Past form (last 14 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 4/10 4/1 2.75L 69 86 Daniel Tudhope Sweating - led - ridden up the centre home straight - lost three places and no extra final 110yds(tchd 7/2) 2026-04-29 Musselburgh 7f Good Cla 4/10 18/1 3.50L 70 67 Darragh Keenan Slightly awkward start - took keen hold - towards rear - headway from over 2f out - hung right but went fourth inside final furlong - not reach leaders(op 16/1) 2025-09-28 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 10/11 5/1 0.30L 70 57 Oisin McSweeney Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - not clear run and weakened from over 1f out (trainer could offer no explanation for the poor form shown)(op 9/2) 2025-09-13 Musselburgh 7f Good To S Cla 3/11 4/1 0.75L 70 76 Callum Rodriguez In touch with leaders - going okay but waiting for room over 2f out - switched left and challenging over 1f out - briefly led inside final furlong - headed final 110yds - lost second towards finish(op 3/1) 2025-08-29 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 2/13 7/2 0.50L 67 75 Shane Gray Sweating - took keen hold - in touch with leaders - pressed leader from over 2f out - led inside final furlong - headed towards finish(op 11/2) 2025-08-09 Ayr 7f Good Cla 2/8 9/4F 0.30L 67 73 Jason Hart Led - faced challenge from over 1f out - keeping on inside final furlong - no extra and headed towards finish(op 2/1) 2025-06-20 Down Royal (I 7f Good — 3/14 12/1 1.25L 67 65 Robbie Colgan Midfield - in touch with leaders under 2f out - went second inside final furlong - lost second inside final 110yds(op 10/1) 2025-06-05 Leopardstown 7½f Good — 8/12 9/1 2.00L 70 55 Jack Cleary Held up in rear - headway inside final furlong - never on terms(op 12/1) 2025-05-24 Curragh (IRE) 7f Good — 11/20 11/1 0.05L 71 63 Chris Hayes Towards rear towards far side - some headway from under 2f out - no impression inside final furlong(op 12/1) 2024-12-20 Dundalk (AW) 1m Standard — 5/9 8/1 3.00L 75 64 Robert Whearty Dwelt start - in rear - some headway from 4f out - in touch with leaders when switched left 1f out - kept on but no impression final 110yds(op 14/1) 2024-11-22 Dundalk (AW) 7f Standard — 7/10 14/1 0.20L 77 69 Robbie Colgan Midfield - outpaced then hampered over 1f out - some headway inside final furlong(op 8/1) 2024-11-08 Dundalk (AW) 1m Standard — 8/10 5/2F 1.25L 79 70 Declan McDonogh Took keen hold - prominent - disputing second halfway - weakened 1f out (vet reported gelding to be post race normal)(op 11/4) 2024-10-04 Dundalk (AW) 7f Standard — 1/12 85/40F won — 83 Seamie Heffernan Took keen hold - prominent - went second up the centre over 1f out - ridden to lead inside final furlong - ridden out and went clear towards finish(op 2/1 tchd 9/4) 2024-09-11 Cork (IRE) 1m Good To F — 2/13 9/1 6.50L — 70 Dylan Browne McMon Dwelt start - soon midfield - headway when ridden on near side of group and ran green from 2f out - ran on inside final furlong - went modest second final strides - no match for winner(op 12/1) Comment Sweating - led - ridden up the centre home straight - lost three places and no extra final 110yds(tchd 7/2) Finishing result Position 4 SP 4/1 (5.000) Beaten (L) 2.75 Total beaten 3.75 OR after 69 In-running comment Sweating - led - ridden up the centre home straight - lost three places and no extra final 110yds(tchd 7/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2. NATIVE INSTINCT (GB) (#1 · Σ 65.0) 4yo G · Draw 1 Connections Jockey Callum Rodriguez Trainer Edward Bethell Owner Peter Jeffers Pedigree Sire Night Of Thunder (IRE) Dam Riviera Belle (GB) Damsire Medaglia d'Oro Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 4.50 (Bet365) 15:42 5.00 (Bet365) 16:42 4.50 (Bet365) 17:21 4.00 (William Hill) 17:41 3.75 (BetTom) 18:02 3.25 (Bet365) 20:01 3.00 (Bet365) 21:40 3.25 (Bet365) 09:11 3.00 (Bet365) 10:05 2.88 (Bet365) 10:13 3.00 (Bet365) 10:34 2.88 (Bet365) 10:40 3.00 (Bet365) 11:06 2.88 (Bet365) 11:23 3.00 (Bet365) 13:37 2.88 (Bet365) 15:45 2.75 (Bet365) 15:51 2.88 (Betfred) 16:06 3.00 (William Hill) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 7.0/10 RPR 85, OFR 74, TS 85 — top end of the field on all three. Form 7.0/10 Form 6056-2 — finished 2nd last time after some moderate efforts, clearly back on song. Connections 8.0/10 Trainer Bethell Elo 1712 and jockey Rodriguez Elo 1691 are the best pairing in the race despite a cold 14d (4%). Fitness 8.0/10 15 days since 2nd — ideal turnaround for a horse in form. Trip 6.0/10 RPR figures earned around 6f-7f range — trip suits. Pace 6.0/10 Stalking style fits a race likely run at fair tempo. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 1 — neutral over this 7f trip at Carlisle. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear changes noted. Weight 5.0/10 Top weight 135lb off a workable mark of 74. Value 7.0/10 Strongest connections + recent 2nd make him a likely underestimated favourite. Σ Summary 65.0/100 Best connections in the race meet form-figure 2 — clearest single piece of evidence. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1587.8 (11 runs, 1 wins, 9.1%) Jockey 1691.3 (3720 runs, 552 wins, 14.8%) Trainer 1711.5 (1338 runs, 217 wins, 16.2%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 168r 26w 15% A/E 0.98 (fair) Jockey × trainer 530r 108w 20% A/E 0.94 (fair) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 43r 9w 21% A/E 1.04 (fair) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 960r 178w 19% A/E 1.02 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 4r 1w 25% A/E 0.90 (fair) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 295r 37w 13% A/E 1.04 (fair) Past form (last 12 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 6/10 7/4F 1.75L 74 89 Callum Rodriguez Prominent - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 13/8 and tchd 2/1) 2026-05-03 Hamilton 1m½f Good Cla 2/8 2/1F 1.00L 74 80 Callum Rodriguez Travelled strongly - pressed leader - led narrowly 2f out - soon ridden and edged right - headed and no extra inside final 110yds(op 9/4 tchd 15/8) 2025-10-28 Leicester 1m Soft Cla 6/8 7/2 4.50L 76 42 Callum Rodriguez In touch with leaders - weakened from over 1f out(op 9/2) 2025-10-18 Catterick 7f Good Cla 5/10 11/2 0.75L 78 79 Oisin Orr Taken down early - in rear - still plenty to do over 2f out - headway from over 1f out - no impression final 110yds(tchd 6/1) 2025-10-10 York 7f Good Cla 11/21 10/1 0.30L 80 72 Archie Young Taken down early - prominent - lost position over 2f out - weakened from over 1f out(op 14/1 tchd 9/1) 2025-08-17 Southwell (AW 7f Standard Cla 6/10 9/2 0.50L 80 74 Callum Rodriguez Taken down early - disputed lead - prominent after 2f - pressed leaders towards near side over 2f out - weakened quickly from 1f out(op 13/2 tchd 4/1) 2025-07-16 Catterick 7f Good To S Cla 2/10 7/2J 0.50L 80 85 Callum Rodriguez Midfield - in touch with leaders 2f out - no impression over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong - went second final strides(tchd 4/1) 2025-06-22 Pontefract 6f Good Cla 3/7 7/1 3.25L 81 75 Callum Rodriguez In touch with leaders - took keen hold early - no extra final furlong - went third towards finish(op 13/2) 2025-06-06 Doncaster 7f Good Cla 7/10 13/2 0.20L 82 76 Kevin Stott Taken down early - took keen hold - midfield on near side of group - some headway but hung right over 2f out - no impression from over 1f out (jockey said gelding hung right-handed)(op 15/2 tchd 8/1) 2024-10-28 Redcar 6f Soft Cla 1/7 6/4F won — 84 Callum Rodriguez Sweating - took keen hold - led - pushed along 2f out - faced challenge over 1f out - ridden clear final 110yds - readily(op 7/4 tchd 11/8 and tchd 2/1) 2024-08-16 Thirsk 7f Good Cla 3/10 15/8F 3.50L — 70 Callum Rodriguez Took keen hold - led narrowly - headed 3f out - switched right 1f out - soon no extra(op 9/4 tchd 7/4) 2024-07-26 Thirsk 6f Good To F Cla 5/11 3/1 0.05L — 66 Callum Rodriguez In touch with leaders - outpaced 3f out - ran green but some headway 2f out - hung left when ridden over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 10/3) Comment Prominent - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 13/8 and tchd 2/1) Finishing result Position 6 SP 7/4F (2.750) Beaten (L) 1.75 Total beaten 6.75 OR after 74 In-running comment Prominent - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 13/8 and tchd 2/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3. VINCE LE PRINCE (GB) (#7 · Σ 65.0) 6yo G · Draw 2 · tp Connections Jockey Sean Kirrane Trainer Tim Easterby Owner Reality Partnerships V Pedigree Sire Iffraaj (GB) Dam Crecy (GB) Damsire Refuse To Bend Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 7.50 (Bet365) 15:01 8.00 (Bet365) 16:01 8.50 (Coral) 17:41 9.50 (Coral) 19:20 10.00 (William Hill) 21:40 8.50 (Midnite) 09:11 11.00 (BetTom) 09:14 9.50 (Unibet) 09:40 9.00 (Unibet) 12:35 8.50 (Bet365) 14:02 9.00 (Unibet) 14:31 8.50 (William Hill) 14:37 9.00 (Virgin Bet) 15:45 8.50 (Unibet) 16:00 8.00 (Unibet) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 7.0/10 RPR 85 + TS 88 (best) puts him at the top of the form figures. Form 7.0/10 Form 42-227 — three placings in last five, very reliable. Connections 6.0/10 Easterby experienced (11825r), jockey Kirrane solid (Elo 1616). Fitness 7.0/10 11 days off — sharp. Trip 7.0/10 Multiple placed efforts at 6-7f confirm trip ideal. Pace 6.0/10 Hold-up style — needs pace to chase. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 2 — handy. Equipment 6.0/10 Tongue-strap + cheekpieces retained, no change but keeps him at it. Weight 6.0/10 129lb off OFR 68 — workable. Value 7.0/10 Highest Elo + best TS often missed when win record is modest. Σ Summary 65.0/100 Top Elo, top TS, place form — most consistent profile. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1646.1 (41 runs, 5 wins, 12.2%) Jockey 1615.5 (2008 runs, 203 wins, 10.1%) Trainer 1635.0 (11825 runs, 1281 wins, 10.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 73r 10w 14% A/E 1.15 (value) Jockey × trainer 792r 83w 10% A/E 0.88 (fair) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 1260r 124w 10% A/E 0.78 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 3651r 440w 12% A/E 0.87 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 23r 3w 13% A/E 0.87 (fair) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 827r 116w 14% A/E 1.02 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 5/10 8/1 1.25L 68 85 Sean Kirrane In touch with leaders - outpaced from over 1f out(op 13/2) 2026-05-07 Redcar 7f Good Cla 7/9 4/1 1.50L 68 84 David Allan Prominent - weakened from 2f out(op 10/3) 2026-04-22 Catterick 7f Good Cla 2/9 7/4F 0.75L 68 72 David Allan In touch with leaders - headway 2f out - went second final stride(op 9/4 tchd 13/8) 2026-04-08 Catterick 7f Good Cla 2/12 11/4F 1.50L 68 72 David Allan Prominent - led over 1f out - headed final 110yds - no extra towards finish(op 10/3) 2025-10-28 Catterick 7f Soft Cla 2/11 2/1F 2.00L 67 72 David Allan Led - switched right against near rail 2f out - headed and outpaced inside final 110yds(op 85/40 tchd 9/4) 2025-10-18 Catterick 7f Good Cla 4/10 5/1 0.30L 68 72 Duran Fentiman Midfield - pushed along but headway over 2f out - switched left over 1f out - briefly went second inside final furlong - no extra and lost two places final 110yds(op 4/1 tchd 11/2) 2025-10-01 Catterick 7f Soft Cla 3/12 9/4F 0.30L 68 72 David Allan Prominent - switched to near side over 2f out - no extra final 110yds(op 5/2 tchd 15/8) 2025-09-13 Musselburgh 7f Good To S Cla 5/11 7/2F 2.00L 70 70 Sean Kirrane In touch with leaders - pressed leaders over 2f out - no extra from 1f out - weakened final 110yds(op 4/1) 2025-09-01 Carlisle 7f Good Cla 7/11 13/2 0.30L 72 66 David Allan In touch with leaders on outer - weakened inside final furlong(op 7/1 and tchd 17/2) 2025-08-20 Carlisle 7f Good To F Cla 5/7 11/4F 1.50L 74 73 David Allan In touch with leaders on outer - edged right and no impression from over 1f out - weakened final 110yds(op 10/3) 2025-07-26 Chester 7½f Good Cla 12/13 6/1 0.75L 76 63 Sean Kirrane Prominent - lost position 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 7/1 tchd 15/2) 2025-07-16 Catterick 7f Good To S Cla 5/10 4/1 0.20L 78 81 David Allan Towards rear - some headway over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 9/2) 2025-07-10 Doncaster 7f Good Cla 8/11 5/1 0.10L 75 68 Sean Kirrane Raced centre - chased clear leader - pressed leaders when groups merged over 1f out - weakened final 110yds - 4th of 5 in group (jockey said gelding hung right-handed throughout)(op 9/2) 2025-07-01 Musselburgh 7f Good Cla 2/9 11/2 0.10L 75 83 David Allan In touch with leaders - bit short of room against far rail over 2f out - headway over 1f out - briefly led inside final 110yds - ran on - just failed(tchd 6/1) 2025-06-17 Thirsk 7f Good To F Cla 2/10 11/1 3.25L 75 81 David Allan Pressed leader - led narrowly 2f out - headed over 1f out - soon no chance with winner(op 10/1 tchd 9/1) 2025-06-07 Musselburgh 7f Good To F Cla 2/9 8/1 0.75L 73 80 Sean Kirrane In touch with leaders on outer - headway and challenging over 1f out - soon ridden - no extra towards finish(op 10/1 tchd 17/2) 2025-05-24 Beverley 7½f Good Cla 6/8 18/1 2.25L 75 61 P J McDonald Prominent on outer - hung right and weakened over 1f out(op 14/1) 2025-05-10 Haydock 7f Good To F Cla 9/12 18/1 0.50L 76 64 Duran Fentiman In rear - headway into midfield 3f out - weakened over 1f out(op 16/1) 2025-04-27 Southwell (AW 7f Standard Cla 11/14 20/1 2.25L 77 52 Sean Kirrane Midfield - outpaced and no impression from over 2f out(op 25/1) 2025-04-13 Musselburgh 7f Good Cla 4/12 12/1 1.75L 77 77 David Allan In touch with leaders - headway over 3f out - bit short of room against rail 2f out - no extra inside final 110yds(op 10/1) Comment In touch with leaders - outpaced from over 1f out(op 13/2) Finishing result Position 5 SP 8/1 (9.000) Beaten (L) 1.25 Total beaten 5.00 OR after 68 In-running comment In touch with leaders - outpaced from over 1f out(op 13/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4. WISH THIS (GB) (#10 · Σ 57.0) 4yo G · Draw 6 · b Connections Jockey Ray Dawson Trainer Alan Brown Owner S Mcmillan F Reay Pedigree Sire Aclaim (IRE) Dam Warsash (IRE) Damsire War Command Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 21.00 (Bet365) 15:42 17.00 (Bet365) 16:01 19.00 (Coral) 00:31 21.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 23.00 (Bet Victor) 09:40 26.00 (Bet Victor) 12:16 23.00 (William Hill) 12:35 21.00 (BetWright) 12:37 19.00 (Bet365) 12:49 17.00 (Bet365) 14:02 19.00 (Bet365) 14:04 17.00 (Bet365) 14:22 19.00 (Bet365) 14:55 17.00 (Bet365) 15:01 19.00 (Bet365) 15:45 21.00 (Bet365) 16:00 23.00 (Bet365) 16:06 26.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 85 competitive, OFR 66 a workable mark. Form 5.0/10 951-66 — recent winner but last two 6ths blunt the case. Connections 6.0/10 Brown 14d 14% (2 from 14), RTF 57 best in field — yard ticking. Fitness 7.0/10 20 days off — fair. Trip 6.0/10 Sprint range suits. Pace 5.0/10 Versatile. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 6 — handy. Equipment 6.0/10 Blinkers retained; previously helped him win. Weight 5.0/10 127lb off OFR 66 — sensible. Value 5.0/10 Recent win quickly forgotten by market. Σ Summary 57.0/100 Recent winner from in-form yard with blinkers retained. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1508.4 (14 runs, 1 wins, 7.1%) Jockey 1543.6 (2900 runs, 317 wins, 10.9%) Trainer 1522.4 (1194 runs, 100 wins, 8.4%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle no data Jockey × trainer 4r 2w 50% A/E 2.18 (value) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 87r 8w 9% A/E 1.23 (value) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 632r 74w 12% A/E 0.96 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 10r 1w 10% A/E 1.30 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 67r 8w 12% A/E 1.25 (value) Past form (last 15 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 8/10 18/1 1.00L 66 83 Ray Dawson Pressed leader - lost second and weakened over 1f out(op 20/1 tchd 22/1) 2026-04-28 Southwell (AW 7f Standard Cla 6/7 12/1 2.00L 67 60 Sean Kirrane Prominent - pressed leader over 1f out - soon bit short of room and outpaced - weakened final 110yds(op 9/1) 2026-04-11 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 6/8 18/1 0.05L 67 61 Sean Kirrane Disputed lead early - in touch with leaders after 1f - weakened inside final furlong(op 22/1) 2025-11-01 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/9 9/1 won 64 72 Barry McHugh Led - pressed leader when headed over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - led again towards finish - gamely(op 11/1) 2025-09-22 Hamilton 6f Soft Cla 5/9 11/1 1.25L 67 51 Barry McHugh Prominent - lost position 2f out(op 10/1) 2025-09-01 Carlisle 1m1f Good Cla 9/10 25/1 2.75L 70 57 Barry McHugh In touch with leaders on outer - headway and challenging over 2f out - weakened final furlong(op 20/1) 2025-07-26 Newcastle (AW 1m Standard Cla 4/10 33/1 1.25L 72 64 Barry McHugh Took keen hold - in rear - keeping on when bit short of room 1f out - ran on final furlong - never dangerous(op 40/1 tchd 25/1) 2025-07-07 Ayr 7f Good To S Cla 8/11 12/1 1.00L 74 63 Shay Farmer Prominent behind clear leader - lost position over 1f out(op 9/1 tchd 14/1) 2025-06-04 Curragh (IRE) 6½f Good — 3/13 6/1 1.25L 72 70 James Ryan Raced towards near side - midfield - headway over 1f out - kept on - 3rd of 9 in group(op 8/1) 2025-04-23 Gowran Park ( 1m Heavy — 10/16 33/1 0.50L 75 56 J M Sheridan In touch with leaders - bit short of room and weakened over 1f out(op 28/1) 2024-10-22 Curragh (IRE) 6f Soft — 4/11 14/1 0.20L 68 75 J M Sheridan In touch with leaders - headway from 2f out - no impression inside final furlong(op 12/1) 2024-10-09 Navan (IRE) 6f Good To Y — 4/8 11/2 1.25L 67 64 J M Sheridan In touch with leaders - waiting for room from over 1f out - soon headway - briefly went third when bit short of room inside final 110yds - eased towards finish (jockey said gelding had to take a precautionary check in final 100yds)(op 8/1 tchd 9/1) 2024-09-19 Naas (IRE) 6f Good — 5/11 80/1 4.50L — 49 J M Sheridan In rear - some headway after halfway - stayed on(op 100/1) 2024-07-02 Roscommon (IR 7½f Good — 5/13 80/1 1.00L — 50 Robbie Colgan Prominent early - soon steadied and in touch with leaders - raced wide on turn after 3f - dropped to midfield halfway - kept on final furlong - not reach leaders(op 50/1 tchd 100/1) 2024-05-07 Navan (IRE) 5f Yielding — 11/11 200/1 2.00L — 38 Robbie Colgan Midfield - outpaced and dropped to rear 2f out - weakened gradually inside final furlong(op 66/1) Comment Pressed leader - lost second and weakened over 1f out(op 20/1 tchd 22/1) Finishing result Position 8 SP 18/1 (19.000) Beaten (L) 1.00 Total beaten 10.50 OR after 66 In-running comment Pressed leader - lost second and weakened over 1f out(op 20/1 tchd 22/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5. BAY BREEZE (GB) (#9 · Σ 55.0) 7yo G · Draw 9 · p Connections Jockey Jake Dickson Trainer Tim Easterby Owner D A West Partner Pedigree Sire Buratino (IRE) Dam Midnight Mojito (GB) Damsire Azamour Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 15.00 (Bet365) 16:01 17.00 (Coral) 19:20 19.00 (Bet Victor) 00:31 21.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 29.00 (Bet Victor) 09:40 34.00 (Bet Victor) 11:39 29.00 (BetTom) 11:52 26.00 (William Hill) 15:45 29.00 (Bet365) 16:01 34.00 (Spreadex) 16:06 36.00 (7Bet) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 8.0/10 RPR 89 (joint top) and TS 82 — has the best raw figures in the race. Form 4.0/10 0920-6 — only one placing from five, last out 6th. Connections 5.0/10 Easterby okay but claimer Jake Dickson (7lb) less experienced (jockey Elo 1519). Fitness 5.0/10 35 days off — borderline stale. Trip 6.0/10 Trip suits, has placed here-ish before. Pace 5.0/10 Hold-up — needs cover. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 9 — neutral. Equipment 6.0/10 Cheekpieces retained, keeps focus. Weight 6.0/10 128lb after 7lb claim from a 67 mark — well in. Value 5.0/10 Top RPR offset by patchy form. Σ Summary 55.0/100 Talent there but reliability and 7yo profile against him. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1547.3 (58 runs, 8 wins, 13.8%) Jockey 1518.8 (85 runs, 8 wins, 9.4%) Trainer 1635.0 (11825 runs, 1281 wins, 10.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle no data Jockey × trainer 53r 6w 11% A/E 0.93 (fair) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 1260r 124w 10% A/E 0.78 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 302r 36w 12% A/E 1.10 (value) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 33r 6w 18% A/E 1.45 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 704r 83w 12% A/E 0.94 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 7/10 28/1 2.75L 67 86 Jake Dickson In touch with leaders - outpaced 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 25/1 tchd 33/1) 2026-04-13 Leicester 6f Good Cla 6/9 12/1 0.30L 68 45 David Allan Led - headed 3f out - weakened 2f out(op 9/1) 2025-10-23 Nottingham 6f Heavy Cla 11/12 4/1 8.00L 69 — David Allan In touch with leaders - weakened over 2f out (trainer's rep had no explanation for the poor form shown)(Mkt1: op 13/2 tchd 11/2; Mkt2: op 5/1; Mkt3 op 9/2) 2025-09-29 Hamilton 6f Soft Cla 2/7 11/2 1.25L 69 74 Mrs Emily Roberts Led narrowly or disputed lead - headed halfway - kept on final 110yds(op 15/2 tchd 5/1) 2025-09-22 Leicester 6f Good To S Cla 9/14 22/1 1.00L 69 54 Duran Fentiman Prominent - hung right over 1f out - weakened final furlong(op 18/1) 2025-09-12 Doncaster 6f Good Cla 15/15 50/1 0.30L 71 27 Jake Dickson Bumped soon after start - soon prominent - weakening when hampered over 2f out(op 33/1) 2025-08-16 Ripon 6f Good To F Cla 5/15 20/1 0.75L 72 67 David Allan Raced far side - prominent - no extra inside final 110yds - 3rd of 7 in group(op 14/1) 2025-08-06 Pontefract 6f Good To F Cla 7/10 22/1 0.10L 74 66 David Allan Prominent - weakened inside final furlong(op 16/1 tchd 14/1 and 25/1) 2025-06-13 Chester 7f Good Cla 11/13 18/1 0.50L 73 57 Mrs Emily Roberts Hampered start - towards rear - headway into midfield 4f out - weakened 2f out(op 22/1) 2025-05-29 Carlisle 6f Good To S Cla 1/8 5/1 won 67 77 Mrs Emily Roberts Prominent - led then edged right over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 9/2) 2025-05-03 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 4/10 9/1 2.50L 68 63 Rhys Elliott Prominent - no extra inside final 110yds(op 17/2) 2025-04-26 Leicester 6f Good Cla 5/10 25/1 0.20L 69 69 James Sullivan In touch with leaders - outpaced 2f out - rallied inside final furlong(op 18/1) 2025-04-12 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 5/10 15/2 0.05L 70 65 David Allan Prominent in centre of group - no extra from over 1f out - weakened gradually inside final furlong(op 17/2) 2024-11-02 Newmarket 6f Soft Cla 6/11 14/1 1.50L 70 64 David Allan Ducked right start - soon led - headed and pressed leaders after 1f - led again over 2f out - headed over 1f out - weakened gradually inside final furlong(op 12/1 tchd 11/1) 2024-10-24 Nottingham 6f Soft Cla 1/8 9/2 won 68 77 David Allan Prominent - ridden 2f out - led over 1f out - faced challenge final 110yds - kept on well(op 5/1 tchd 4/1) 2024-09-30 Hamilton 6f Good To S Cla 7/7 6/1 2.00L 70 49 Mrs Emily Roberts Always behind (trainer's rep had no explanation for the poor form shown; vet said gelding was found to have an irregular heartbeat post race)(op 11/2 tchd 5/1) 2024-09-22 Hamilton 6f Good To S Cla 3/9 10/1 1.75L 70 74 David Allan Pressed leader - disputed lead over 1f out - no extra and lost second inside final furlong - weakened gradually final 110yds(op 8/1) 2024-08-05 Ripon 6f Good Cla 6/6 11/2 1.00L 73 72 David Allan Ducked right start - in rear - pushed along before halfway - never on terms(op 5/1 tchd 4/1 and tchd 7/1) 2024-07-26 York 6f Good To F Cla 4/21 11/1 1.50L 74 78 David Allan Prominent on far side of group - edged right over 1f out - no extra final 110yds(tchd 12/1) 2024-07-05 Haydock 7f Good Cla 8/11 50/1 3.25L 76 62 Duran Fentiman Led early - headed and prominent after 2f - kept apart from others from over 4f out - weakened over 1f out(op 33/1) Comment In touch with leaders - outpaced 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 25/1 tchd 33/1) Finishing result Position 7 SP 28/1 (29.000) Beaten (L) 2.75 Total beaten 9.50 OR after 67 In-running comment In touch with leaders - outpaced 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 25/1 tchd 33/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6. THEY ALL KNOW ME (GB) (#3 · Σ 54.0) 4yo G · Draw 5 Connections Jockey David Nolan Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey Owner M J Macleod Pedigree Sire Sergei Prokofiev (CAN) Dam Silver Machine (GB) Damsire Brazen Beau Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 13.00 (Bet365) 17:21 15.00 (Bet365) 19:20 17.00 (William Hill) 21:40 15.00 (Bet365) 09:11 17.00 (Coral) 10:21 15.00 (Bet365) 11:29 13.00 (Bet365) 16:06 12.00 (BetTom) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 83 mid-pack, OFR 73 competitive. Form 4.0/10 33-288 — two recent 8ths suggest he's hit a wall. Connections 7.0/10 Fahey 14d 13% strike + David Nolan steady — solid yard signals. Fitness 6.0/10 36 days — slightly stale but not unfit. Trip 5.0/10 Has placed at trip earlier in career. Pace 5.0/10 Versatile. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 5 — handy berth at Carlisle. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 5.0/10 134lb off OFR 73 — sensible. Value 5.0/10 Pluses balance the recent flops. Σ Summary 54.0/100 Decent yard but recent form is a worry. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1542.9 (8 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1573.1 (4163 runs, 449 wins, 10.8%) Trainer 1637.0 (105 runs, 11 wins, 10.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 164r 14w 9% A/E 0.78 (negative) Jockey × trainer 4r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle no data Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 325r 37w 11% A/E 0.90 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 4r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 10r 3w 30% A/E 1.55 (value) Past form (last 9 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 1/10 11/1 won 73 83 David Nolan In rear - niggled along before halfway - ridden over 2f out - headway towards near side over 1f out - soon switched right - disputing lead final 110yds - led narrowly towards finish(tchd 10/1) 2026-04-12 Musselburgh 7f Good Cla 8/10 12/1 0.10L 75 67 Warren Fentiman Held up in rear - raced awkwardly over 2f out - switched right over 1f out - never on terms(op 11/1 tchd 10/1) 2026-02-06 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 8/11 17/2 1.50L 77 64 David Nolan Towards rear - some headway inside final 110yds - no impression(op 8/1 tchd 9/1) 2026-01-12 Wolverhampton 7f Standard Cla 2/8 4/1 0.50L 72 77 Warren Fentiman Took keen hold - midfield - headway then switched right 1f out - ran on final 110yds - nearest finish(op 5/1 tchd 18/5) 2025-12-20 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 3/10 10/1 1.25L 72 75 Jack Garritty Took keen hold - in rear - plenty to do 2f out - not clear run over 1f out - ran on well and went third inside final furlong - nearest finish - eyecatcher(tchd 14/1) 2025-10-27 Newcastle (AW 1m Standard Cla 3/4 9/1 0.50L 74 71 Cam Hardie Led - ran green when headed over 2f out - carried left over 1f out - weakening against far rail when lost second towards finish (jockey said gelding hung left-handed under pressure)(op 17/2) 2025-08-12 Hamilton 1m½f Good Cla 2/5 9/4 2.25L — 74 Oisin Orr Prominent - carried head high and no extra from over 2f out(op 5/2 tchd 85/40) 2025-07-20 Redcar 7f Good To S Cla 2/9 10/1 1.00L — 74 Warren Fentiman Took keen hold - prominent - led over 1f out - soon ran green - headed and no extra inside final 110yds(op 7/1 tchd 11/1) 2025-06-28 Chester 7½f Good Cla 3/6 17/2 11.00L — 53 Oisin Orr Slowly away - in rear - outpaced 3f out - raced wide home turn - kept on from over 1f out - went remote third towards finish(op 10/1 tchd 13/2) Comment In rear - niggled along before halfway - ridden over 2f out - headway towards near side over 1f out - soon switched right - disputing lead final 110yds - led narrowly towards finish(tchd 10/1) Finishing result Position 1 SP 11/1 (12.000) Beaten (L) 0.00 Total beaten 0.00 OR after 73 In-running comment In rear - niggled along before halfway - ridden over 2f out - headway towards near side over 1f out - soon switched right - disputing lead final 110yds - led narrowly towards finish(tchd 10/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7. DETECTIVE (GB) (#11 · Σ 53.0) 10yo G · Draw 3 Connections Jockey Lauren Young Trainer Dianne Sayer Owner A Slack And D Coppola Pedigree Sire Kingman (GB) Dam Promising Lead (GB) Damsire Danehill Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 26.00 (Bet365) 17:21 29.00 (Bet365) 21:40 31.00 (7Bet) 22:01 26.00 (Bet365) 00:31 23.00 (Bet Victor) 03:32 21.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 29.00 (Midnite) 09:40 23.00 (Bet365) 10:21 21.00 (Bet365) 10:46 23.00 (Bet365) 10:52 21.00 (Bet365) 11:06 23.00 (Bet365) 11:17 21.00 (Bet365) 11:29 23.00 (Bet365) 16:01 26.00 (Spreadex) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 8.0/10 RPR 89 (joint top), TS 84 — raw figures still elite for this grade. Form 3.0/10 7826-9 — last seen finishing 9th, no encouragement. Connections 4.0/10 Sayer tiny stable (1r in 14d), 5lb claimer Young (Elo 1607 ok but unproven). Fitness 6.0/10 22 days off — fine. Trip 5.0/10 Has run wide range of trips, this one viable. Pace 5.0/10 Versatile. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 3 — fine. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 7.0/10 122lb after 5lb claim — well treated relative to peak. Value 4.0/10 Age and recent form likely make him over-priced if backed. Σ Summary 53.0/100 Veteran with class hint but reality of age and 9th last time is heavy. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1471.6 (62 runs, 8 wins, 12.9%) Jockey 1606.8 (238 runs, 31 wins, 13.0%) Trainer 1449.7 (1416 runs, 162 wins, 11.4%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 3r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Jockey × trainer no data Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 440r 43w 10% A/E 0.90 (fair) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 1404r 248w 18% A/E 0.85 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 41r 5w 12% A/E 0.67 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 5561r 647w 12% A/E 0.85 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 10/10 25/1 3.75L 61 86 Lauren Young Slowly into stride - always behind(op 20/1) 2026-04-26 Musselburgh 1m Good Cla 9/13 50/1 0.50L 64 55 Aiden Brookes Steadied start - towards rear throughout(op 40/1) 2025-09-30 Ayr 1m2f Soft Cla 6/7 25/1 8.50L 65 24 Connor Beasley Midfield - weakened from 2f out(op 18/1) 2025-09-13 Musselburgh 7f Good To S Cla 2/11 22/1 0.30L 63 71 Connor Beasley Towards rear - outpaced and struggling over 3f out - rallied from 2f out - kept on well inside final furlong - went second towards finish - did well in the circumstances(op 28/1) 2025-08-27 Musselburgh 7f Good Cla 8/9 11/2 13.00L 64 4 Sam James Always behind (jockey said gelding was never travelling; vet had nothing to report) 2025-08-04 Carlisle 1m Good Cla 7/8 17/2 2.50L 65 49 Rhys Elliott Always behind(op 15/2) 2025-07-14 Ayr 1m Good Cla 4/6 11/4 1.25L 65 59 P J McDonald Towards rear - pushed along over 3f out - kept on from over 1f out - never on terms(op 7/2) 2025-07-01 Musselburgh 1m1f Good Cla 1/9 4/1F won 61 69 P J McDonald Held up in rear - waiting for room 2f out - pushed along but bit short of room over 1f out - switched right and ran on well inside final furlong - led inside final 110yds - comfortably(tchd 10/3) 2025-06-16 Carlisle 1m1f Soft Cla 7/12 12/1 0.20L 63 63 Paul Mulrennan Held up in rear - not clear run over 2f out - switched left and headway up the centre over 1f out - no extra final 110yds(op 15/2) 2025-06-05 Hamilton 1m1f Good Cla 11/12 16/1 2.50L 65 52 Amie Waugh Took keen hold - soon midfield - weakened over 1f out(op 11/1) 2025-05-21 Ayr 1m Good To F Cla 5/6 8/1 1.50L 67 63 Joanna Mason Towards rear - outpaced from under 3f out - rallied and kept on inside final furlong(op 9/1 tchd 10/1) 2025-05-04 Hamilton 1m½f Good To F Cla 8/8 9/2 0.30L 68 58 Paul Mulrennan Held up in rear - outpaced and no impression from 3f out(op 6/1 tchd 13/2) 2025-04-13 Musselburgh 1m Good Cla 3/13 22/1 0.75L 68 71 P J McDonald Held up in rear - headway over 1f out - went third final stride - kept on(op 25/1) 2024-11-26 Sedgefield 2m1f Good Cla PU/13 33/1 — 72 — Peter Kavanagh In rear - struggling when not fluent 5th - tailed off when pulled up before 3 out(tchd 40/1) 2024-10-01 Ayr 1m Good Cla 9/9 18/1 0.75L 70 66 Brandon Wilkie Towards rear - weakened inside final furlong(op 22/1) 2024-09-21 Ayr 7f Good To F Cla 4/12 50/1 0.30L 70 73 Connor Murtagh Slowly into stride - in rear early - midfield after 2f - going okay over 2f out - headway over 1f out - keeping on inside final furlong - no extra final 110yds(op 40/1 tchd 66/1) 2024-09-11 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 9/12 28/1 2.75L 71 54 Connor Murtagh Midfield - outpaced on near side of group 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 20/1) 2024-08-29 Carlisle 1m1f Soft Cla 9/9 11/1 19.00L 71 — Connor Murtagh Always behind (trainer could offer no explanation for the poor form shown)(op 13/2) 2024-08-21 Carlisle 7f Good Cla 1/10 9/1 won 67 75 Connor Murtagh Held up in rear - smooth headway 2f out - pushed along over 1f out - ridden to lead final 110yds - always doing enough(op 17/2) 2024-08-05 Carlisle 1m3f Good Cla 5/8 4/1 0.20L 69 68 Amie Waugh Took keen hold - towards rear - good headway 3f out - no extra inside final furlong - lost fourth final strides(op 3/1) Comment Slowly into stride - always behind(op 20/1) Finishing result Position 10 SP 25/1 (26.000) Beaten (L) 3.75 Total beaten 26.25 OR after 61 In-running comment Slowly into stride - always behind(op 20/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 8. JUDICATURE (GB) (#8 · Σ 50.0) 4yo G · Draw 10 Connections Jockey Tom Eaves Trainer Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Owner Darren Briscoe Pedigree Sire Invincible Spirit (IRE) Dam Magical Journey (IRE) Damsire Night Of Thunder Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 8.50 (Bet365) 17:21 9.00 (Bet365) 17:41 9.50 (Bet365) 20:41 10.00 (William Hill) 00:31 11.00 (Bet Victor) 09:11 23.00 (Coral) 09:14 21.00 (Betfred) 09:26 19.00 (Betfred) 09:34 17.00 (Betfred) 10:05 19.00 (Betfred) 10:21 17.00 (William Hill) 10:27 19.00 (Coral) 10:46 17.00 (Betfred) 12:35 19.00 (Betfred) 13:16 17.00 (Betfred) 13:18 19.00 (talkSPORT BET) 13:22 17.00 (Betfred) 13:28 19.00 (Betfred) 14:45 17.00 (Betfred) 14:55 19.00 (Betfred) 15:31 21.00 (Coral) 16:01 23.00 (Betfred) 16:06 19.00 (BetTom) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 84 competitive, OFR 67 manageable. Form 4.0/10 9759-4 — comeback 4th was a flicker but earlier was abysmal. Connections 6.0/10 Trainer 14d 18% (2 from 11) plus 17% wins overall — healthy yard. Fitness 6.0/10 23 days off — workable. Trip 5.0/10 Untested over this exact trip in winning style. Pace 5.0/10 Versatile. Draw 4.0/10 Stall 10 of 11 — disadvantageous. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 5.0/10 128lb off 67 — fair. Value 4.0/10 Poor figures outweigh hot yard. Σ Summary 50.0/100 Hot yard signal not enough against patchy form. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1514.8 (7 runs, 1 wins, 14.3%) Jockey 1521.4 (7824 runs, 570 wins, 7.3%) Trainer 1569.5 (417 runs, 73 wins, 17.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 606r 41w 7% A/E 0.67 (negative) Jockey × trainer 8r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 32r 4w 12% A/E 0.91 (fair) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 4643r 681w 15% A/E 0.92 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 4r 1w 25% A/E 2.38 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 54r 9w 17% A/E 0.96 (fair) Past form (last 8 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 2/10 14/1 0.20L 67 84 Tom Eaves Towards rear - headway under 3f out - disputing lead final 110yds - just held(op 20/1) 2026-04-25 Haydock 6f Good To F Cla 4/11 9/1 1.00L 69 67 Paul Mulrennan Held up in midfield - outpaced over 2f out - rallied inside final furlong - no impression(op 11/1) 2025-12-05 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 9/10 22/1 0.75L 72 58 Barry McHugh In touch with leaders on far side of group - weakened from over 2f out(op 18/1) 2025-11-22 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 5/7 100/30 1.50L 75 72 Tom Eaves Prominent on near side of group - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 3/1) 2025-10-24 Doncaster 6f Soft Cla 7/14 50/1 0.30L 76 67 Tom Eaves In rear - headway on far side of group over 1f out - no impression inside final furlong(op 66/1) 2025-09-20 Ayr 7f Soft Cla 9/12 50/1 1.25L 77 56 Tom Eaves Midfield - hung left and weakened over 1f out(op 33/1) 2025-08-29 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/9 12/1 won — 78 David Nolan Midfield - in touch with leaders over 2f out - headway over 1f out - led inside final furlong - kept on(op 20/1) 2025-08-09 Redcar 7f Good To F Cla 5/8 80/1 6.50L — 49 Barry McHugh Always behind(op 50/1) Comment Towards rear - headway under 3f out - disputing lead final 110yds - just held(op 20/1) Finishing result Position 2 SP 14/1 (15.000) Beaten (L) 0.20 Total beaten 0.20 OR after 67 In-running comment Towards rear - headway under 3f out - disputing lead final 110yds - just held(op 20/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9. GREEN PURSUIT (IRE) (#5 · Σ 47.0) 4yo G · Draw 7 Connections Jockey Dale Swift Trainer Seb Spencer Owner Chalkstone Racing Pedigree Sire Arizona (IRE) Dam High Regards (IRE) Damsire High Chaparral Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 5.50 (Bet365) 15:42 6.00 (Bet365) 17:41 6.50 (Bet365) 21:40 6.00 (Bet365) 00:31 6.50 (Bet365) 03:32 6.00 (Bet365) 09:11 5.00 (Bet365) 15:45 5.50 (Bet365) 16:00 6.00 (Betfred) 16:06 5.50 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 RPR 82 ok, TS 77 acceptable. Form 4.0/10 720-05 — recent flops with little encouragement. Connections 3.0/10 Spencer trainer Elo 1437 + jockey Swift Elo 1452 — weakest combo in the race. Fitness 6.0/10 30 days off — fair. Trip 5.0/10 Has tried this range. Pace 5.0/10 Average. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 7 — neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 5.0/10 133lb off OFR 72 — fair. Value 4.0/10 Weakest connections + poor recent runs. Σ Summary 47.0/100 Bad Elo numbers and form line make him hard to back. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1572.0 (14 runs, 1 wins, 7.1%) Jockey 1452.3 (1794 runs, 141 wins, 7.9%) Trainer 1437.1 (604 runs, 43 wins, 7.1%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 86r 16w 19% A/E 1.54 (value) Jockey × trainer 322r 31w 10% A/E 0.96 (fair) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 12r 2w 17% A/E 1.33 (value) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 68r 7w 10% A/E 0.97 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 3r 1w 33% A/E 1.92 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 1551r 183w 12% A/E 0.90 (fair) Past form (last 15 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 3/10 4/1 0.75L 72 87 Dale Swift Midfield - headway over 1f out - edged left inside final furlong - briefly disputed lead final 110yds - no extra final strides(op 9/2) 2026-04-18 Thirsk 7f Good Cla 5/12 17/2 0.50L 74 75 Dale Swift Midfield - outpaced over 2f out - rallied from over 1f out - kept on final 110yds - not pace to challenge(op 9/1 tchd 10/1) 2026-03-29 Doncaster 7f Good To S Cla 11/16 25/1 2.75L 76 60 Dale Swift Towards rear - short of room over 1f out - never on terms(op 20/1) 2025-10-24 Doncaster 6f Soft Cla 11/14 12/1 0.05L 77 66 Dale Swift Never better than midfield(op 14/1) 2025-09-09 Carlisle 7f Good To S Cla 2/11 7/1 0.50L 74 80 Oisin McSweeney Pressed leaders - went second 1f out - ran on towards finish - just held(op 13/2 tchd 6/1) 2025-07-26 York 7f Good Cla 7/16 9/1 0.50L 75 73 Connor Beasley Took keen hold - towards rear - steady headway from 3f out - no extra when in touch with leaders final 110yds(op 15/2) 2025-07-12 Chester 6f Good Cla 4/10 22/1 0.20L 76 77 Nathan Evans In rear - headway over 1f out - went third inside final 110yds - no extra and lost third final strides(op 16/1) 2025-06-14 York 7f Good To F Cla 11/13 16/1 0.30L 77 60 Nathan Evans In touch with leaders - weakened final furlong(tchd 18/1) 2025-05-14 York 7f Good To F Cla 8/14 8/1 0.30L 77 72 Joe Fanning In touch with leaders - prominent 3f out - led narrowly under 2f out - headed 1f out - soon weakened(op 15/2 tchd 7/1) 2025-04-17 Ripon 6f Good Cla 2/9 11/8F 0.20L 74 81 Connor Beasley Midfield - headway over 2f out - pressed winner inside final furlong - just held(tchd 6/4) 2025-04-09 Catterick 6f Good Cla 1/7 15/8F won 68 82 Connor Beasley Ducked left start - in touch with leaders - towards rear and niggled along 4f out - pushed along and headway but hung left from 2f out - led over 1f out - ran on well final 110yds - readily(op 5/2 tchd 11/4) 2024-08-18 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 6/11 20/1 0.30L 70 63 Dale Swift Midfield - headway then switched left 2f out - bit short of room over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 18/1 tchd 22/1) 2024-07-20 Doncaster 7f Good Cla 7/11 22/1 0.50L — 62 Dale Swift Pressed leaders - ridden and hung left over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 28/1) 2024-06-27 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 3/12 50/1 4.50L — 67 Dale Swift Midfield on far side of group - headway 2f out - kept on final 110yds - no match for first two(op 22/1) 2024-06-06 Haydock 6f Good Cla 11/15 200/1 2.75L — 47 Dale Swift Held up in rear - outpaced after 2f - soon no impression(op 125/1) Comment Midfield - headway over 1f out - edged left inside final furlong - briefly disputed lead final 110yds - no extra final strides(op 9/2) Finishing result Position 3 SP 4/1 (5.000) Beaten (L) 0.75 Total beaten 1.00 OR after 72 In-running comment Midfield - headway over 1f out - edged left inside final furlong - briefly disputed lead final 110yds - no extra final strides(op 9/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10. WILLIAM DEWHIRST (IRE) (#2 · Σ 45.0) 6yo G · Draw 8 Connections Jockey Paul Mulrennan Trainer Ben Haslam Owner Racing Knights Nicol Tocher Cleevely Pedigree Sire Sioux Nation (USA) Dam Two Pass (IRE) Damsire Mtoto Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 14:41 21.00 (Bet365) 15:42 23.00 (Bet365) 16:42 21.00 (Bet365) 17:21 23.00 (Bet365) 19:41 17.00 (Bet365) 20:01 13.00 (Bet365) 00:31 15.00 (Bet Victor) 03:32 13.00 (Bet365) 04:01 15.00 (Bet365) 09:11 19.00 (Bet Victor) 10:27 21.00 (Spreadex) 16:00 23.00 (Bet365) 16:01 26.00 (Spreadex) 16:06 29.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 RPR 76 lowest in field — well below par on form. Form 3.0/10 32-797 — last three runs were 7th, 9th, 7th. Heading wrong way. Connections 3.0/10 Haslam 0 from 14 in 14d, RTF only 36 — stable in poor heart. Fitness 7.0/10 17 days off — fine. Trip 5.0/10 Has run around this trip without much success. Pace 5.0/10 Versatile from gate. Draw 5.0/10 Stall 8 in 11 — neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No change. Weight 4.0/10 Sharing top weight despite below-par RPR. Value 3.0/10 Cold stable + dropping form = likely overrated by market. Σ Summary 45.0/100 Out-of-form runner from a cold yard with the lowest RPR. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1587.9 (29 runs, 8 wins, 27.6%) Jockey 1508.4 (8375 runs, 1024 wins, 12.2%) Trainer 1537.1 (2310 runs, 277 wins, 12.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle 593r 69w 12% A/E 0.81 (negative) Jockey × trainer 254r 31w 12% A/E 0.91 (fair) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 98r 7w 7% A/E 0.76 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 451r 75w 17% A/E 0.94 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 16r 5w 31% A/E 1.28 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 1402r 148w 11% A/E 0.92 (fair) Past form (last 20 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Carlisle 7f Soft Cla 9/10 22/1 12.00L 74 79 Paul Mulrennan Midfield - hampered 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 20/1 tchd 28/1) 2026-05-01 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 7/8 25/1 0.10L 76 71 Andrew Mullen Ducked left start - soon recovered and led - headed over 2f out - weakened quickly from over 1f out(op 20/1 tchd 18/1) 2026-04-13 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 9/10 66/1 3.00L 79 63 Andrew Mullen Bumped start - in rear throughout(op 40/1) 2026-03-19 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 7/7 40/1 15.00L 82 16 Andrew Mullen In rear - hung left and weakened from over 2f out(op 33/1 tchd 28/1 and 50/1) 2025-03-13 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 2/4 15/8 0.50L 84 90 Paul Mulrennan Pressed leader - ridden and challenging over 1f out - led narrowly inside final 110yds - headed and no extra towards finish(op 11/8) 2025-03-04 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 3/7 3/1 2.00L 87 87 Paul Mulrennan Took keen hold - led but pestered - headed over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong(tchd 11/4 and tchd 16/5) 2025-02-27 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 1/6 3/1 won 82 89 Paul Mulrennan Took keen hold - made virtually all - pestered throughout - joined and ridden over 1f out - edged left final 110yds - kept on(op 11/4 tchd 5/2) 2025-02-14 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 6/10 9/4F 0.30L 82 81 Paul Mulrennan Took keen hold - midfield - ridden over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - no telling impression(op 2/1 tchd 15/8) 2025-01-23 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 1/8 100/30F won 79 90 Paul Mulrennan Started quickly - travelled strongly - raced in second - led and going best over 1f out - ridden and faced challenge inside final furlong - kept on well final 110yds - comfortably(op 3/1) 2025-01-14 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 1/7 6/4F won 77 85 Paul Mulrennan Took keen hold - held up in rear - headway going easily over 2f out - led and faced challenge over 1f out - clear with one other inside final furlong - pushed out - comfortably(tchd 11/8 and tchd 13/8) 2025-01-08 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 1/10 3/1F won 72 78 Paul Mulrennan Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - headway and pressed leader over 1f out - ridden and led final 110yds - ran on(op 10/3) 2024-12-21 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 2/11 7/4F 0.50L 71 78 Paul Mulrennan Raced in third behind clear leader - went second over 1f out - ridden to lead inside final furlong - headed inside final 110yds - kept on(op 5/2) 2024-12-09 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 1/8 7/4F won 66 77 Paul Mulrennan Took keen hold - switched sharply right soon after start - in touch with leaders against near rail - going easily when switched left 2f out - soon pressed leaders - ridden briefly inside final furlong - led final 110yds - readily(op 2/1 tchd 13/8) 2024-11-11 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 1/11 14/1 won 63 74 Harrison Shaw Prominent - led narrowly and ridden against near rail over 1f out - kept on final 110yds - gamely(op 16/1 and tchd 18/1) 2024-10-19 Catterick 7f Soft Cla 6/8 9/2 5.50L 65 44 Joanna Mason Bumped soon after start - held up in rear - outpaced 3f out - kept on from over 1f out - never on terms(op 7/1 tchd 8/1) 2024-10-07 Pontefract 1m Soft Cla 8/9 8/1 0.50L 68 50 Paul Mulrennan Sweating - took keen hold - raced in second - weakened over 1f out(op 9/1) 2024-09-11 Carlisle 1m Soft Cla 4/12 9/1 1.25L 69 71 Joanna Mason Midfield - headway on outer from over 1f out - kept on well and went fourth towards finish(tchd 17/2) 2024-08-21 Carlisle 7f Good Cla 6/10 28/1 0.05L 70 72 Harrison Shaw Held up in rear - outpaced 3f out - stayed on inside final furlong - nearest finish(op 20/1) 2024-07-17 Thirsk 6f Good To S Cla 10/12 25/1 0.30L 73 59 Paul Mulrennan Midfield - dropped to rear 3f out - hung left and no impression inside final furlong(op 22/1 tchd 20/1) 2024-04-29 Ayr 7f Good Cla 9/9 8/1 1.50L 74 39 Andrew Breslin Took keen hold - midfield - weakened 2f out - eased inside final furlong (jockey said gelding hung right under pressure)(op 17/2 tchd 9/1) Comment Midfield - hampered 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 20/1 tchd 28/1) Finishing result Position 9 SP 22/1 (23.000) Beaten (L) 12.00 Total beaten 22.50 OR after 74 In-running comment Midfield - hampered 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 20/1 tchd 28/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 11. THIS FARH (NR) (#NR · Σ 61.0) 4yo G · 133lb · Draw 11 · p Connections Jockey NON-RUNNER Trainer David Loughnane (Stoke Heath, Shropshire) Owner David Lowe Breeder The Lowe Family Trainer 14d 0/15 (0%) DOB 2022-03-09 Pedigree Sire Far Above (IRE) Dam This Girl (GB) Damsire Nathaniel Form / ratings Form string -64614 Last run (days) 9 OFR 72 RPR 85 TS 54 Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% All bookmaker prices Bet365 - (-) · EW 3/5 William Hill - (-) · EW 3/5 Coral - (-) · EW 3/5 Betfred - (-) · EW 3/5 Boyle Sports - (-) · EW 3/5 Ladbrokes - (-) · EW 3/5 Unibet - (-) · EW 3/5 BetTom - (-) · EW 3/5 Bet Victor - (-) · EW 3/5 10 Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 BetMGM - (-) · EW 3/5 Grosvenor Sports - (-) · EW 3/5 Virgin Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 talkSPORT BET - (-) · EW 3/5 BetWright - (-) · EW 3/5 LiveScore Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 Betano - (-) · EW 3/5 Dragon Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 CopyBet - (-) · EW 3/5 PricedUp Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 BetAhoy - (-) · EW 3/5 Spreadex - (-) · EW 3/5 BresBet - (-) · EW 3/5 BestOdds - (-) · EW 3/5 7Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 Star Sports - (-) · EW 3/5 Midnite - (-) · EW 3/5 SportingIndex - (-) · EW 3/5 Quinn Bet - (-) · EW 3/5 Betfair Exchange - (-) Best-odds movement 14:41 5.00 (Bet365) 15:42 5.50 (Bet365) 16:01 6.00 (Coral) 17:41 6.50 (Bet365) 18:20 6.00 (Bet365) 21:40 6.50 (William Hill) 22:22 7.00 (Coral) 00:31 7.50 (Bet Victor) 03:32 8.00 (Bet Victor) 04:01 8.50 (Midnite) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 7.0/10 RPR 85 joint-second top, TS 81 a strong number. Form 7.0/10 Form -64614 — won three back, then dipped, ran 4th last time. Connections 5.0/10 Loughnane cold (0/15 in 14d) offsets jockey Rowan Scott's solid book. Fitness 9.0/10 9-day return is the sharpest in the field — in cycle. Trip 6.0/10 Suited by sprint/6-7f range. Pace 6.0/10 Front to mid-pace, flexible. Draw 3.0/10 Stall 11 of 11 — clearly disadvantaged at Carlisle's 7f. Equipment 6.0/10 Cheekpieces ('p') retained — keeps him honest. Weight 6.0/10 133lb off 72 — sensible. Value 6.0/10 In-form figures + quick turnaround usually under-bet. Σ Summary 61.0/100 Form lines and quick return outweigh the wide draw. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1603.0 (19 runs, 3 wins, 15.8%) Jockey 1350.4 (17 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Trainer 1609.3 (3245 runs, 333 wins, 10.3%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Carlisle no data Jockey × trainer no data Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Carlisle 63r 5w 8% A/E 0.59 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 5 117r 14w 12% A/E 0.85 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 5 19r 3w 16% A/E 0.86 (fair) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 5 270r 31w 11% A/E 0.83 (negative) Spotlight Drop back to 6f backfired last time when bidding for a Leicester double; has gained all wins at about today's trip, albeit both handicap ones came off 3lb lower. Comment Has gained all wins at about 7f, albeit both handicap ones came off 3lb lower ============================================================================== HEAD-TO-HEAD (6 past meetings between today's runners) ============================================================================== 2026-05-18 · Carlisle · 7f · Class 5 · Soft Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap 1 They All Know Me (GB) won SP 11/1 2 Judicature (GB) 0.20L SP 14/1 3 Green Pursuit (IRE) 0.75L SP 4/1 4 Black Storm (IRE) 2.75L SP 4/1 5 Vince Le Prince (GB) 1.25L SP 8/1 6 Native Instinct (GB) 1.75L SP 7/4F 7 Bay Breeze (GB) 2.75L SP 28/1 8 Wish This (GB) 1.00L SP 18/1 9 William Dewhirst (IRE) 12.00L SP 22/1 10 Detective (GB) 3.75L SP 25/1 2025-10-24 · Doncaster · 6f · Class 4 · Soft Final One Standing By William Hill Handicap 7 Judicature (GB) 0.30L SP 50/1 11 Green Pursuit (IRE) 0.05L SP 12/1 2025-10-18 · Catterick · 7f · Class 4 · Good William Hill Football Final One Standing Handicap (Div I) 4 Vince Le Prince (GB) 0.30L SP 5/1 5 Native Instinct (GB) 0.75L SP 11/2 2025-09-13 · Musselburgh · 7f · Class 5 · Good To Soft Lothian Supply Company Handicap 2 Detective (GB) 0.30L SP 22/1 3 Black Storm (IRE) 0.75L SP 4/1 5 Vince Le Prince (GB) 2.00L SP 7/2F 2025-07-16 · Catterick · 7f · Class 4 · Good To Soft Racing Again 23rd July Handicap 2 Native Instinct (GB) 0.50L SP 7/2J 5 Vince Le Prince (GB) 0.20L SP 4/1 2024-08-21 · Carlisle · 7f · Class 4 · Good National Racehorse Week Handicap (A Jockey Club Grassroots Mile Series Qualifier) (Div II) 1 Detective (GB) won SP 9/1 6 William Dewhirst (IRE) 0.05L SP 28/1 ============================================================================== AI RACE VERDICT ============================================================================== Pace scenario: Likely fair tempo with William Dewhirst and Detective potentially making the running; race shape should suit hold-up types and on-pace stalkers like Native Instinct and Black Storm. Narrative: Competitive Class 5 handicap at Carlisle with eight horses within 4lb on OFR and several on similar RPRs. Native Instinct shaped well when second 15 days ago and represents the strongest trainer/jockey numbers (Bethell/Rodriguez, trainer Elo 1712). Vince Le Prince keeps finding place money and has the highest horse Elo, while Black Storm returns after wind surgery with consistent placed form. This Farh comes here quickly off a recent run and won three starts back. Bay Breeze and Detective top the RPRs but both come with form question marks. Recommended: Native Instinct Came back to form with a close 2nd last time, RPR 85 puts him on par with the best, and he has the strongest connections in the race (Bethell trainer Elo 1712, jockey Rodriguez Elo 1691). Quick 15-day turnaround suggests he's primed. Alternative: Vince Le Prince Highest horse Elo in the field at 1646 and consistently places (42-227 last five). Wears tongue-tie + cheekpieces and has TS=88 the best in the race. ============================================================================== Generated 2026-05-19 13:42 UTC · HorseRacingValue.com · race rac_11944127