==============================================================================
RACE: Wolverhampton (AW) ? · 2026-05-18
      attheraces.com/marketmovers Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands B-D) (GBB Race)
      Standard · Flat · AW
==============================================================================

  Status            FINISHED

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. MOUNTAIN CAT (IRE)  (#2 · Σ 73.0)
   3yo C · Draw 7

  Connections
  Jockey            Oisin Murphy
  Trainer           Saeed bin Suroor
  Owner             Godolphin

  Pedigree
  Sire              Teofilo (IRE)
  Dam               Maria Amalia (GB)
  Damsire           Dubawi

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:21     1.80 (Bet365)
  16:42     1.73 (Bet365)
  18:20     1.67 (Bet365)
  21:22     1.62 (Bet365)
  21:40     1.57 (Bet365)
  22:01     1.53 (Bet365)
  22:22     1.50 (Bet365)
  02:00     1.44 (Bet365)
  09:11     1.30 (William Hill)
  09:20     1.29 (Coral)
  09:28     1.25 (Coral)
  10:21     1.22 (BetWright)
  10:31     1.25 (William Hill)
  10:46     1.22 (William Hill)
  11:43     1.25 (Unibet)
  13:37     1.17 (PricedUp Bet)
  13:43     1.14 (William Hill)
  14:04     1.18 (Unibet)
  14:10     1.14 (Bet365)
  14:29     1.17 (Unibet)
  14:31     1.14 (Bet365)
  17:33     1.13 (Unibet)
  17:45     1.11 (Virgin Bet)
  17:55     1.09 (7Bet)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         10.0/10
                  RPR 80 is clear top-rated, 11lb above Rogue Defence and
                  22lb above Roi De Coeur.
  Form          9.0/10
                  Won on debut (figure 1) and the RPR is the best earned
                  in the field.
  Connections   10.0/10
                  Bin Suroor 50% 14d strike, RTF 100; Murphy jockey Elo
                  1746 — elite combination.
  Fitness       9.0/10
                  16 days since winning debut — ideal sweet-spot.
  Trip          7.0/10
                  Teofilo x Dubawi-line dam suggests middle-distance fine;
                  debut win evidence positive.
  Pace          7.0/10
                  Positive rider likely to take a forward position in a
                  small field.
  Draw          4.0/10
                  Stall 7 of 7 — outside berth not ideal over 1m142y at
                  Wolves but small field mitigates.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No equipment change.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  136lb as 3yo within band — standard for a novice.
  Value         7.0/10
                  Profile is the only one ticking every box; likely fair
                  on price but the win chance is genuine.
  Σ Summary     73.0/100
                  Class, form, fitness and connections all align — the
                  standout.
  Verdict       Strong contender

  ELO
  Horse     1528.2 (1 runs, 1 wins, 100.0%)
  Jockey    1746.1 (9495 runs, 1668 wins, 17.6%)
  Trainer   1658.2 (3270 runs, 715 wins, 21.9%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m½f                no data
  Jockey @ 1m½f               no data
  Jockey @ Wolverhampton (AW) 591r 131w 22%  A/E 0.95 (fair)
  Jockey × trainer            359r 101w 28%  A/E 1.02 (fair)
  Trainer @ 1m½f              no data
  Trainer @ Wolverhampton (AW)340r 105w 31%  A/E 0.96 (fair)
  Sire progeny @ 1m½f         no data
  Sire progeny in Class 5     2100r 271w 13%  A/E 0.87 (fair)
  Dam progeny @ 1m½f          no data
  Dam progeny in Class 5      1r 1w 100%  A/E 4.50 (value)
  Damsire grand @ 1m½f        no data
  Damsire grand in Class 5    2442r 318w 13%  A/E 0.84 (negative)

  Past form (last 2 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Wolverhampton 1m½f  Standard  Cla 1/6   1/14F   won    —    82   Oisin Murphy
      Made virtually all - ran on from 2f out - pushed out inside final
      furlong(op 1/12)
    2026-05-02 Doncaster     1m    Good To F Cla 1/6   7/2     won    —    89   Alistair Rawlinson
      Dwelt start - prominent - led from 2f out - ran green and edged
      left but ran on inside final furlong - comfortably(op 4/1 tchd
      10/3)

  Comment
    Made virtually all - ran on from 2f out - pushed out inside final
    furlong(op 1/12)

  Finishing result
  Position          1
  SP                1/14F (1.070)
  Beaten (L)        0.00
  Total beaten      0.00
  In-running comment
    Made virtually all - ran on from 2f out - pushed out inside final
    furlong(op 1/12)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. LEOPARDS ROCK (GB)  (#4 · Σ 51.0)
   3yo G · Draw 3

  Connections
  Jockey            David Probert
  Trainer           Edward Bethell
  Owner             Mia Racing

  Pedigree
  Sire              Territories (IRE)
  Dam               Passionada (GB)
  Damsire           Avonbridge

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:21     13.00 (Coral)
  09:11     26.00 (Bet365)
  09:26     29.00 (Bet365)
  10:01     34.00 (Bet365)
  10:58     41.00 (Bet365)
  11:23     34.00 (Bet365)
  13:43     29.00 (Bet365)
  14:04     26.00 (BetMGM)
  14:10     23.00 (Bet365)
  14:29     26.00 (Bet365)
  14:43     29.00 (Bet365)
  14:45     26.00 (Bet365)
  17:12     29.00 (Bet365)
  17:24     26.00 (Bet365)
  17:31     34.00 (Bet365)
  17:53     41.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         5.0/10
                  No RPR — default mid until shown; Bethell rarely debuts
                  at this Class 5 level without intent.
  Form          5.0/10
                  No runs to judge.
  Connections   5.0/10
                  Strong trainer Elo (1712) but cold 14d run (1/25, 4%);
                  Probert reliable jockey Elo 1552.
  Fitness       5.0/10
                  First-time-out — fitness unproven.
  Trip          6.0/10
                  Territories x Avonbridge pedigree leans towards a mile,
                  so 1m142y is plausible.
  Pace          5.0/10
                  Style unknown.
  Draw          5.0/10
                  Stall 3 — neutral.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No headgear note.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  129lb 3yo — standard.
  Value         5.0/10
                  Hard to price without form; reasonable each-way underlay
                  risk.
  Σ Summary     51.0/100
                  Capable yard and rider but pure debut speculation
                  against two debut winners.
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Jockey    1551.7 (10271 runs, 1173 wins, 11.4%)
  Trainer   1711.5 (1338 runs, 217 wins, 16.2%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m½f                no data
  Jockey @ 1m½f               no data
  Jockey @ Wolverhampton (AW) 1973r 218w 11%  A/E 0.86 (fair)
  Jockey × trainer            5r 0w 0%  A/E 0.00 (negative)
  Trainer @ 1m½f              no data
  Trainer @ Wolverhampton (AW)74r 12w 16%  A/E 0.78 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m½f         no data
  Sire progeny in Class 5     806r 80w 10%  A/E 0.77 (negative)
  Dam progeny @ 1m½f          no data
  Dam progeny in Class 5      2r 0w 0%  A/E 0.00 (negative)
  Damsire grand @ 1m½f        no data
  Damsire grand in Class 5    306r 25w 8%  A/E 0.71 (negative)

  Past form (last 1 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Wolverhampton 1m½f  Standard  Cla 3/6   33/1    1.75L  —    —    David Probert
      Slowly away - in rear - some headway and in touch with leaders 2f
      out - no impression over 1f out - weakened inside final
      furlong(tchd 40/1)

  Comment
    Slowly away - in rear - some headway and in touch with leaders 2f out
    - no impression over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 40/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          3
  SP                33/1 (34.000)
  Beaten (L)        1.75
  Total beaten      5.00
  In-running comment
    Slowly away - in rear - some headway and in touch with leaders 2f out
    - no impression over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 40/1)

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3. ROI DE COEUR (IRE)  (#5 · Σ 51.0)
   3yo G · Draw 6

  Connections
  Jockey            Hollie Doyle
  Trainer           Marco Botti
  Owner             Scuderia La Tesa Limited

  Pedigree
  Sire              City Light (FR)
  Dam               Dame De Coeur (IRE)
  Damsire           Anodin

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:21     9.50 (William Hill)
  16:42     10.00 (Coral)
  22:40     11.00 (Bet365)
  09:11     19.00 (Bet365)
  13:30     17.00 (Unibet)
  13:43     15.00 (Bet365)
  14:12     17.00 (Bet365)
  14:43     19.00 (Bet365)
  14:45     17.00 (Bet365)
  15:04     19.00 (Unibet)
  16:10     21.00 (Bet365)
  16:31     19.00 (Bet365)
  16:37     21.00 (Bet365)
  16:56     19.00 (Bet365)
  17:12     17.00 (Bet365)
  17:31     19.00 (Bet365)
  17:53     23.00 (Coral)
  17:55     26.00 (Betfred)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         4.0/10
                  RPR 58 — third-best of the rated horses but well off the
                  principals.
  Form          3.0/10
                  Form figure 7 on sole start; ordinary effort.
  Connections   7.0/10
                  Botti hot 25% 14d; Doyle (jockey Elo 1652) capable.
  Fitness       8.0/10
                  20 days since debut — should have improved for the run.
  Trip          5.0/10
                  Untried at 1m142y, pedigree (City Light) more speed.
  Pace          5.0/10
                  No clear style cues.
  Draw          5.0/10
                  Stall 6 — neutral.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No headgear change indicated.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  125lb 3yo — towards the bottom of the weights.
  Value         4.0/10
                  Hot connections may shorten price unduly; form figure
                  says outclassed.
  Σ Summary     51.0/100
                  Hot yard with capable rider but the debut form is
                  plainly short of the top pair.
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Horse     1499.5 (1 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1652.0 (8428 runs, 1112 wins, 13.2%)
  Trainer   1788.9 (4305 runs, 528 wins, 12.3%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m½f                no data
  Jockey @ 1m½f               no data
  Jockey @ Wolverhampton (AW) 1161r 164w 14%  A/E 0.88 (fair)
  Jockey × trainer            167r 25w 15%  A/E 0.98 (fair)
  Trainer @ 1m½f              no data
  Trainer @ Wolverhampton (AW)1296r 209w 16%  A/E 0.94 (fair)
  Sire progeny @ 1m½f         no data
  Sire progeny in Class 5     22r 8w 36%  A/E 1.47 (value)
  Dam progeny @ 1m½f          no data
  Dam progeny in Class 5      no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m½f        no data
  Damsire grand in Class 5    16r 3w 19%  A/E 1.95 (value)

  Past form (last 2 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Wolverhampton 1m½f  Standard  Cla 6/6   18/1    2.75L  —    60   Hollie Doyle
      Ran in snatches - prominent - pushed along from over 3f out -
      weakened from over 2f out (jockey said gelding ran in snatches)(op
      22/1)
    2026-04-28 Lingfield (AW 1m    Standard  Cla 7/12  6/1     0.30L  —    56   Jack Gilligan
      In touch with leaders - weakened over 2f out(op 5/1 tchd 9/2 and
      tchd 13/2)

  Comment
    Ran in snatches - prominent - pushed along from over 3f out - weakened
    from over 2f out (jockey said gelding ran in snatches)(op 22/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          6
  SP                18/1 (19.000)
  Beaten (L)        2.75
  Total beaten      12.50
  In-running comment
    Ran in snatches - prominent - pushed along from over 3f out - weakened
    from over 2f out (jockey said gelding ran in snatches)(op 22/1)

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4. ZABEEL SMALL (IRE)  (#6 · Σ 51.0)
   3yo C · Draw 5

  Connections
  Jockey            Luke Morris
  Trainer           James Tate
  Owner             Jaber Abdullah

  Pedigree
  Sire              Lucky Vega (IRE)
  Dam               Kilakey (IRE)
  Damsire           Key Of Luck

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:21     9.00 (BetMGM)
  16:42     9.50 (BetMGM)
  18:20     10.00 (CopyBet)
  02:00     11.00 (William Hill)
  09:11     13.00 (Bet365)
  10:21     15.00 (Bet365)
  10:31     13.00 (Bet365)
  10:46     15.00 (Bet365)
  11:43     13.00 (Bet365)
  13:43     12.00 (Bet365)
  13:57     11.00 (Bet365)
  14:12     10.00 (Unibet)
  14:18     9.00 (Bet365)
  14:43     9.50 (Bet365)
  14:45     8.50 (Bet365)
  15:24     9.00 (Bet365)
  16:10     8.50 (Bet365)
  16:56     9.00 (Bet365)
  17:39     10.00 (Bet365)
  17:45     9.50 (Bet365)
  17:49     10.00 (Bet365)
  17:55     11.00 (Coral)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         5.0/10
                  No rating; Tate-trained debutant usually targeted.
  Form          5.0/10
                  No runs.
  Connections   5.0/10
                  Solid Tate yard (Elo 1622) but quiet recent strike-rate
                  (6%).
  Fitness       5.0/10
                  Unraced.
  Trip          6.0/10
                  Lucky Vega sire typically 6-8f, but dam-side Key Of Luck
                  adds stamina hint.
  Pace          5.0/10
                  Style unknown.
  Draw          5.0/10
                  Stall 5 — neutral.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No equipment note.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  125lb 3yo — light end of the field.
  Value         5.0/10
                  Stable debut from a yard that knows when to deliver —
                  fair speculative price candidate.
  Σ Summary     51.0/100
                  Trustworthy yard but pure unraced speculation against
                  proven winners.
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Jockey    1551.2 (14333 runs, 1433 wins, 10.0%)
  Trainer   1621.6 (2683 runs, 441 wins, 16.4%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m½f                no data
  Jockey @ 1m½f               no data
  Jockey @ Wolverhampton (AW) 4531r 531w 12%  A/E 0.86 (fair)
  Jockey × trainer            547r 77w 14%  A/E 0.76 (negative)
  Trainer @ 1m½f              no data
  Trainer @ Wolverhampton (AW)629r 122w 19%  A/E 0.94 (fair)
  Sire progeny @ 1m½f         no data
  Sire progeny in Class 5     50r 12w 24%  A/E 1.20 (value)
  Dam progeny @ 1m½f          no data
  Dam progeny in Class 5      9r 1w 11%  A/E 0.69 (negative)
  Damsire grand @ 1m½f        no data
  Damsire grand in Class 5    784r 69w 9%  A/E 0.79 (negative)

  Past form (last 1 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Wolverhampton 1m½f  Standard  Cla 2/6   10/1    3.25L  —    —    Luke Morris
      In touch with leaders - chased clear leader from 2f out - no
      impression inside final furlong(tchd 17/2)

  Comment
    In touch with leaders - chased clear leader from 2f out - no
    impression inside final furlong(tchd 17/2)

  Finishing result
  Position          2
  SP                10/1 (11.000)
  Beaten (L)        3.25
  Total beaten      3.25
  In-running comment
    In touch with leaders - chased clear leader from 2f out - no
    impression inside final furlong(tchd 17/2)

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5. ARC AT HER (GB)  (#7 · Σ 47.0)
   3yo F · Draw 4

  Connections
  Jockey            Kieren Fox
  Trainer           Dylan Cunha
  Owner             Gee Gees Racing Hold My Beer

  Pedigree
  Sire              Study Of Man (IRE)
  Dam               Alboretta (GB)
  Damsire           Hernando

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:21     34.00 (William Hill)
  16:42     41.00 (CopyBet)
  09:11     81.00 (Bet365)
  13:30     67.00 (William Hill)
  13:43     51.00 (Bet365)
  14:45     41.00 (Bet365)
  15:24     51.00 (Bet365)
  17:49     81.00 (Spreadex)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         2.0/10
                  RPR 48 ranks just above Rua Mor and miles behind
                  Mountain Cat.
  Form          2.0/10
                  Form figure 9 — beaten plenty.
  Connections   6.0/10
                  Cunha hot 23% 14d but Kieren Fox modest jockey Elo 1579.
  Fitness       9.0/10
                  16 days since last run — ideal turnaround.
  Trip          5.0/10
                  Study Of Man x Hernando line suggests stamina is fine,
                  trip likely OK.
  Pace          5.0/10
                  Style unclear after one poor effort.
  Draw          5.0/10
                  Stall 4 — neutral.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No equipment change.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Carries 122lb — lowest in the field but no offsetting
                  positive.
  Value         3.0/10
                  Unlikely to outrun an inflated price.
  Σ Summary     47.0/100
                  Plenty of class to find on the debut figure even with
                  the in-form yard.
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Horse     1470.8 (1 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1579.0 (1088 runs, 84 wins, 7.7%)
  Trainer   1527.9 (989 runs, 115 wins, 11.6%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m½f                no data
  Jockey @ 1m½f               no data
  Jockey @ Wolverhampton (AW) 215r 19w 9%  A/E 0.71 (negative)
  Jockey × trainer            no data
  Trainer @ 1m½f              no data
  Trainer @ Wolverhampton (AW)114r 17w 15%  A/E 0.90 (fair)
  Sire progeny @ 1m½f         no data
  Sire progeny in Class 5     231r 34w 15%  A/E 0.85 (fair)
  Dam progeny @ 1m½f          no data
  Dam progeny in Class 5      18r 1w 6%  A/E 0.30 (negative)
  Damsire grand @ 1m½f        no data
  Damsire grand in Class 5    1743r 199w 11%  A/E 0.91 (fair)

  Past form (last 2 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Wolverhampton 1m½f  Standard  Cla 4/6   50/1    4.50L  —    50   Kieren Fox
      Towards rear - cajoled along from 4f out - some headway inside
      final furlong(op 40/1)
    2026-05-02 Goodwood      1m    Good      Cla 9/9   22/1    4.00L  —    43   Aidan Keeley
      Slowly into stride - towards rear - weakened 3f out(op 40/1)

  Comment
    Towards rear - cajoled along from 4f out - some headway inside final
    furlong(op 40/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          4
  SP                50/1 (51.000)
  Beaten (L)        4.50
  Total beaten      9.50
  In-running comment
    Towards rear - cajoled along from 4f out - some headway inside final
    furlong(op 40/1)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6. RUA MOR (IRE)  (#1 · Σ 34.0)
   4yo G · Draw 2

  Connections
  Jockey            Lewis Edmunds
  Trainer           Sam England
  Owner             Ursa Major  England

  Pedigree
  Sire              Shaman (IRE)
  Dam               Classic Falcon (IRE)
  Damsire           Dubawi

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:21     29.00 (William Hill)
  16:42     31.00 (7Bet)
  22:40     36.00 (7Bet)
  09:11     81.00 (Bet365)
  10:07     101.00 (Bet365)
  13:30     81.00 (William Hill)
  13:43     67.00 (Bet365)
  13:49     81.00 (Bet365)
  13:51     67.00 (Bet365)
  14:10     81.00 (Bet365)
  14:37     101.00 (Bet365)
  14:45     81.00 (Bet365)
  16:10     101.00 (Bet365)
  16:31     81.00 (Bet365)
  16:37     101.00 (Bet365)
  17:12     81.00 (Bet365)
  17:24     101.00 (Bet365)
  17:39     126.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         1.0/10
                  RPR 44 sits well below Mountain Cat 80 and Rogue Defence
                  69 — bottom of the rated group.
  Form          1.0/10
                  Tailed off (0) on sole start and no run since.
  Connections   4.0/10
                  Sam England yard 2/16 (13%) last 14d, RTF 50; Edmunds
                  modest jockey Elo 1550.
  Fitness       2.0/10
                  244 days since last appearance — well outside the
                  sweet-spot.
  Trip          4.0/10
                  Unproven over 1m142y; pedigree (Shaman x Dubawi mare)
                  suggests stamina is fine but no track form.
  Pace          4.0/10
                  No discernible style after one tailed-off effort.
  Draw          5.0/10
                  Stall 2 of 7 — neutral over this trip on Wolves AW.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No headgear change indicated.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Carries 138lb as the lone 4yo — weight-for-age burden
                  but not punitive in a novice.
  Value         3.0/10
                  Nothing in the profile suggests an overlay; will be
                  friendless.
  Σ Summary     34.0/100
                  Rating-deficient, long off the track, against younger
                  improvers — no realistic chance.
  Verdict       Avoid

  ELO
  Horse     1473.1 (5 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1550.2 (4193 runs, 438 wins, 10.4%)
  Trainer   1507.8 (1929 runs, 227 wins, 11.8%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m½f                no data
  Jockey @ 1m½f               no data
  Jockey @ Wolverhampton (AW) 503r 59w 12%  A/E 0.97 (fair)
  Jockey × trainer            no data
  Trainer @ 1m½f              no data
  Trainer @ Wolverhampton (AW)43r 6w 14%  A/E 1.56 (value)
  Sire progeny @ 1m½f         no data
  Sire progeny in Class 5     91r 10w 11%  A/E 1.00 (fair)
  Dam progeny @ 1m½f          no data
  Dam progeny in Class 5      13r 0w 0%  A/E 0.00 (negative)
  Damsire grand @ 1m½f        no data
  Damsire grand in Class 5    2442r 318w 13%  A/E 0.84 (negative)

  Past form (last 6 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Wolverhampton 1m½f  Standard  Cla 5/6   100/1   0.30L  —    44   Lewis Edmunds
      Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - not clear run and lost
      position over 2f out - switched right and no impression from over
      1f out (jockey said gelding ran green)(tchd 80/1)
    2026-01-26 Punchestown ( 2m    Heavy     —   3/7   12/1    14.00L 105  88   Ricky Doyle
      Held up in rear - not fluent 2nd - headway before 3 out - outpaced
      after 2 out - rallied approaching last - went third towards
      finish(op 22/1)
    2025-12-27 Leopardstown  2m    Yielding  —   13/19 150/1   1.50L  —    77   Conor Brassil
      Took keen hold - prominent - weakened from 2 out - bad mistake
      last(op 125/1)
    2025-11-22 Punchestown ( 2m½f  Soft To H —   5/13  80/1    17.00L —    80   Ricky Doyle
      In rear - steady headway after 4 out - midfield 2 out - soon
      weakened(op 100/1 tchd 125/1)
    2025-10-12 Cork (IRE)    1m7½f Good      —   8/10  200/1   4.75L  —    97   Ricky Doyle
      Always behind(op 150/1 tchd 100/1 and tchd 250/1)
    2025-09-16 Punchestown ( 1m1½f Good To Y —   12/14 50/1    3.00L  —    42   Leigh Roche
      Took keen hold - in rear - midfield 3f out - weakened from 2f
      out(tchd 66/1)

  Comment
    Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - not clear run and lost
    position over 2f out - switched right and no impression from over 1f
    out (jockey said gelding ran green)(tchd 80/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          5
  SP                100/1 (101.000)
  Beaten (L)        0.30
  Total beaten      9.75
  In-running comment
    Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - not clear run and lost
    position over 2f out - switched right and no impression from over 1f
    out (jockey said gelding ran green)(tchd 80/1)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. ROGUE DEFENCE (NR)  (#NR · Σ 63.0)
   3yo G · 134lb · Draw 1

  Connections
  Jockey            Robert Havlin
  Trainer           Jack Jones (Newmarket, Suffolk)
  Owner             The Rogues Gallery & Partner
  Breeder           Rabbah Bloodstock Limited
  Trainer 14d       0/10 (0%)
  DOB               2023-05-15

  Pedigree
  Sire              Dark Angel (IRE)
  Dam               Rehn's Nest (IRE)
  Damsire           Authorized

  Form / ratings
  Form string       1
  Last run (days)   20
  OFR               -
  RPR               71
  TS                51

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  All bookmaker prices
  Bet365              - (-) · EW 2/4
  William Hill        - (-) · EW 2/4
  Coral               - (-) · EW 2/4
  Betfred             - (-) · EW 2/4
  Boyle Sports        - (-) · EW 2/4
  Ladbrokes           - (-) · EW 2/4
  Unibet              - (-) · EW 2/4
  BetTom              - (-) · EW 2/4
  Bet Victor          - (-) · EW 2/4
  10 Bet              - (-) · EW 2/4
  BetMGM              - (-) · EW 2/4
  Grosvenor Sports    - (-) · EW 2/4
  Virgin Bet          - (-) · EW 2/4
  talkSPORT BET       - (-) · EW 2/4
  BetWright           - (-) · EW 2/4
  LiveScore Bet       - (-) · EW 2/4
  Betano              - (-) · EW 2/4
  Dragon Bet          - (-) · EW 2/4
  CopyBet             - (-) · EW 2/4
  PricedUp Bet        - (-) · EW 2/4
  BetAhoy             - (-) · EW 2/4
  Spreadex            - (-) · EW 2/4
  BresBet             - (-) · EW 2/4
  BestOdds            - (-) · EW 2/4
  7Bet                - (-) · EW 2/4
  Star Sports         - (-) · EW 2/4
  Midnite             - (-) · EW 2/4
  SportingIndex       - (-) · EW 2/4
  Quinn Bet           - (-) · EW 2/4
  Betfair Exchange    - (-)

  Best-odds movement
  16:21     5.00 (Bet365)
  21:40     5.50 (Bet365)
  09:11     6.50 (Bet365)
  09:28     7.00 (Bet365)
  10:01     7.50 (Bet365)
  11:06     8.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         7.0/10
                  RPR 69 second-best in the field — clear of the rest but
                  well behind Mountain Cat.
  Form          8.0/10
                  Won on debut with TS 51 attached — concrete form.
  Connections   5.0/10
                  Jones cold 0/11 last 14d (RTF 40), but Havlin (Elo 1686)
                  lifts the booking.
  Fitness       8.0/10
                  20 days since winning debut — fresh but not overcooked.
  Trip          6.0/10
                  Dark Angel sire generally sharper than this trip; won at
                  slightly shorter so step up possible.
  Pace          6.0/10
                  Likely prominent given Havlin style.
  Draw          7.0/10
                  Stall 1 of 7 is a useful low draw at Wolves over the
                  trip.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No equipment change.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  134lb 3yo standard mark.
  Value         6.0/10
                  Trainer's cold spell may inflate the price relative to
                  the horse's actual chance.
  Σ Summary     63.0/100
                  Genuine form credentials despite trainer's recent slump
                  — clear second pick.
  Verdict       Each-way

  ELO
  Horse     1529.0 (1 runs, 1 wins, 100.0%)
  Jockey    1685.8 (5907 runs, 821 wins, 13.9%)
  Trainer   1597.3 (814 runs, 104 wins, 12.8%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m½f                no data
  Jockey @ 1m½f               no data
  Jockey @ Wolverhampton (AW) 1247r 169w 14%  A/E 0.89 (fair)
  Jockey × trainer            3r 1w 33%  A/E 4.07 (value)
  Trainer @ 1m½f              no data
  Trainer @ Wolverhampton (AW)126r 17w 13%  A/E 0.84 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m½f         no data
  Sire progeny in Class 5     5064r 641w 13%  A/E 0.84 (negative)
  Dam progeny @ 1m½f          no data
  Dam progeny in Class 5      8r 2w 25%  A/E 1.23 (value)
  Damsire grand @ 1m½f        no data
  Damsire grand in Class 5    560r 62w 11%  A/E 0.82 (negative)

  Spotlight
    Made a perfect start to his career when winning at Lingfield AW (1m)
    last month; looks sure to progress and should be in the shake-up.

  Comment
    Perfect start to his career when winning at Lingfield AW (1m) last
    month; in the shake-up

==============================================================================
HEAD-TO-HEAD (1 past meetings between today's runners)
==============================================================================

2026-05-18 · Wolverhampton (AW) · 1m½f · Class 5 · Standard
  attheraces.com/marketmovers Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands B-D) (GBB Race)
     1  Mountain Cat (IRE)            won       SP 1/14F
     2  Zabeel Small (IRE)            3.25L     SP 10/1
     3  Leopards Rock (GB)            1.75L     SP 33/1
     4  Arc At Her (GB)               4.50L     SP 50/1
     5  Rua Mor (IRE)                 0.30L     SP 100/1
     6  Roi De Coeur (IRE)            2.75L     SP 18/1

==============================================================================
AI RACE VERDICT
==============================================================================

Pace scenario:
  Likely an even tempo with Mountain Cat and Rogue Defence prominent;
  suits a positive rider on a class horse — favours Mountain Cat.

Narrative:
  Small-field novice that on paper is shaped around debut winner Mountain
  Cat, who posted RPR 80 first time for the Godolphin/bin Suroor yard and
  is reunited with Oisin Murphy after just 16 days. Rogue Defence is the
  only other debut winner in the line-up and steps up after a 20-day
  break, though Jack Jones is 0/11 in the last fortnight. The pair of
  unraced types from Bethell and Tate (Leopards Rock, Zabeel Small) carry
  the usual stable-debut interest but face two horses with proven form.
  Roi De Coeur and Arc At Her are exposed below the front pair on RPR, and
  Rua Mor returns from 244 days off bottom-rated.

Recommended: Mountain Cat
  Top RPR in the race by 11lb, debut winner, sharp Godolphin yard (50%
  strike last 14d) and elite jockey Elo (1746). The most credible profile
  in a novice with limited proven form.

Alternative: Rogue Defence
  The only other debut winner and second-best RPR. Trainer is cold but the
  horse won impressively and Havlin is a class booking.

==============================================================================
Generated 2026-05-19 13:41 UTC · HorseRacingValue.com · race rac_11947949