==============================================================================
RACE: Roscommon (IRE) ? · 2026-05-18
      Michael Tiger Lyons Memorial Maiden
      Good To Yielding · Flat · Turf
==============================================================================

  Status            FINISHED

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1. CHANGING LANES (GB)  (#6 · Σ 64.0)
   3yo C · Draw 13

  Connections
  Jockey            Dylan Browne McMonagle
  Trainer           Joseph Patrick O'Brien
  Owner             Atlantic Thoroughbreds

  Pedigree
  Sire              Galiway (GB)
  Dam               Red Line (FR)
  Damsire           Sageburg

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     6.50 (Bet365)
  17:02     7.00 (Betfred)
  18:20     6.50 (Bet365)
  09:11     7.00 (Boyle Sports)
  10:25     6.50 (Bet365)
  11:29     6.00 (Bet365)
  13:35     5.50 (Bet365)
  17:10     6.00 (Coral)
  17:19     5.50 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         6.0/10
                  RPR 63 below the 70-73 leaders but room to climb after
                  one debut start.
  Form          7.0/10
                  Form figure 3 on debut is encouraging; classic Joseph
                  O'Brien second-run angle.
  Connections   9.0/10
                  Joseph O'Brien firing at 20% in last 14d with top jockey
                  Elo (Browne McMonagle 1772) — elite combo.
  Fitness       8.0/10
                  25 days since debut is ideal for a step-forward run.
  Trip          7.0/10
                  Galiway colt out of Sageburg mare — stamina-laden
                  pedigree built for 1m2f+.
  Pace          6.0/10
                  Likely held up; suits a small-field maiden with steady
                  pace.
  Draw          4.0/10
                  Stall 13 is wide of centre on a 14-runner field.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No headgear changes.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights, even allotment.
  Value         7.0/10
                  Punters may want more visible form; the connections
                  angle is the edge.
  Σ Summary     64.0/100
                  Hot stable + top jockey + obvious improver shape make
                  him the standout upside runner.
  Verdict       Each-way

  ELO
  Horse     1512.4 (1 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1772.3 (3190 runs, 425 wins, 13.3%)
  Trainer   1719.4 (8022 runs, 1472 wins, 18.3%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    83r 12w 14%  A/E 0.73 (negative)
  Jockey × trainer            1446r 262w 18%  A/E 0.88 (fair)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   262r 52w 20%  A/E 0.94 (fair)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 2 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   2/13  9/2     0.30L  —    63   Dylan Browne McMon
      Raced in second - disputed lead going best under 2f out - ridden
      but no extra when headed final 110yds
    2026-04-23 Dundalk (AW)  1m4f  Standard  —   3/7   8/1     1.25L  —    69   Declan McDonogh
      Prominent - switched left and pressed leaders over 1f out - no
      extra inside final 110yds(tchd 17/2)

  Comment
    Raced in second - disputed lead going best under 2f out - ridden but
    no extra when headed final 110yds

  Finishing result
  Position          2
  SP                9/2 (5.500)
  Beaten (L)        0.30
  Total beaten      0.30
  In-running comment
    Raced in second - disputed lead going best under 2f out - ridden but
    no extra when headed final 110yds

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2. KARRYGRANT (IRE)  (#11 · Σ 64.0)
   3yo G · Draw 7

  Connections
  Jockey            Ben Coen
  Trainer           J P Murtagh
  Owner             O T I Racing

  Pedigree
  Sire              River Boyne (IRE)
  Dam               Avagardner (GB)
  Damsire           Showcasing

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     3.50 (Bet365)
  09:11     3.25 (Bet365)
  11:29     3.00 (Bet365)
  14:18     3.25 (Bet365)
  14:43     3.00 (Unibet)
  15:22     2.88 (Bet365)
  16:56     2.75 (William Hill)
  17:18     2.63 (William Hill)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         8.0/10
                  OFR 84 leads the field with RPR 72 alongside
                  Huff'n'puff/Noble Honour.
  Form          7.0/10
                  Form 2-32 with second-place efforts and consistent
                  placings.
  Connections   7.0/10
                  Murtagh trainer Elo 1669 with 13% 14d strike; Coen
                  reliable rider.
  Fitness       6.0/10
                  37-day gap acceptable.
  Trip          7.0/10
                  River Boyne/Showcasing pedigree fits a 1m2f stayer
                  profile.
  Pace          6.0/10
                  Likely tracking pace, can quicken late.
  Draw          6.0/10
                  Stall 7 mid-low, fine.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No equipment angle.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights.
  Value         7.0/10
                  Slight edge on figures yet may not be clear market
                  favourite over Huff'n'puff.
  Σ Summary     64.0/100
                  Marginal top of field on figures with solid connections
                  angle and trip fit.
  Verdict       Each-way

  ELO
  Horse     1572.0 (3 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1622.9 (4196 runs, 402 wins, 9.6%)
  Trainer   1668.8 (3485 runs, 441 wins, 12.7%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    120r 17w 14%  A/E 0.99 (fair)
  Jockey × trainer            1463r 195w 13%  A/E 0.86 (fair)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   115r 16w 14%  A/E 0.78 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 4 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   4/13  6/4F    5.00L  84   72   Ben Coen
      Took keen hold - raced in fourth throughout - outpaced from under
      2f out(op 13/8 tchd 11/8)
    2026-04-11 Bellewstown ( 1m    Soft      —   2/11  5/6F    0.10L  —    78   Ben Coen
      Soon led - ridden clear 1f out - much reduced lead towards finish
      - headed post(op 8/11 tchd 10/11)
    2026-03-30 Navan (IRE)   1m2f  Heavy     —   3/13  5/1     1.50L  —    78   Ben Coen
      Took keen hold - midfield - headway on far side of group over 2f
      out - briefly led 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 7/2
      tchd 10/3)
    2025-10-18 Leopardstown  7f    Yielding  —   2/9   10/1    0.75L  —    75   Ross Coakley
      In touch with leaders - outpaced over 2f out - ran on well final
      furlong - went second final strides - promising(op 15/2)

  Comment
    Took keen hold - raced in fourth throughout - outpaced from under 2f
    out(op 13/8 tchd 11/8)

  Finishing result
  Position          4
  SP                6/4F (2.500)
  Beaten (L)        5.00
  Total beaten      9.25
  OR after          84
  In-running comment
    Took keen hold - raced in fourth throughout - outpaced from under 2f
    out(op 13/8 tchd 11/8)

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3. HUFF'N'PUFF (GB)  (#10 · Σ 62.0)
   3yo G · Draw 9

  Connections
  Jockey            W J Lee
  Trainer           Henry De Bromhead
  Owner             Denis F Howard

  Pedigree
  Sire              Bated Breath (GB)
  Dam               The Begum (GB)
  Damsire           Zamindar

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     6.50 (Bet365)
  09:11     6.00 (Bet365)
  09:22     5.50 (Betfred)
  11:29     5.00 (Bet365)
  14:24     4.50 (Bet365)
  15:16     4.33 (Bet365)
  16:16     4.00 (Bet365)
  17:13     4.33 (Betfred)
  17:19     4.50 (Betfred)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         8.0/10
                  RPR 73 tops the field with OFR 83 also leading.
  Form          6.0/10
                  6-3-5 reads progressive though wins still elusive.
  Connections   7.0/10
                  De Bromhead Elo 1639 with 14% 14d strike; W J Lee a
                  strong rider (Elo 1659).
  Fitness       7.0/10
                  23 days a comfortable interval.
  Trip          7.0/10
                  Bated Breath/Zamindar cross stays 1m2f well.
  Pace          6.0/10
                  Race-shape neutral, should be prominent enough.
  Draw          5.0/10
                  Stall 9 neutral.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No equipment change.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights.
  Value         6.0/10
                  Strong figures hard to ignore; market likely to make him
                  favourite.
  Σ Summary     62.0/100
                  Best figures in the field with a yard in form — the
                  obvious benchmark.
  Verdict       Each-way

  ELO
  Horse     1553.5 (3 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1659.1 (6482 runs, 766 wins, 11.8%)
  Trainer   1639.0 (6279 runs, 1033 wins, 16.5%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    308r 32w 10%  A/E 0.85 (fair)
  Jockey × trainer            225r 34w 15%  A/E 1.10 (value)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   163r 28w 17%  A/E 0.98 (fair)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 4 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   1/13  100/30  won    83   73   W J Lee
      Made all - ridden when joined under 2f out - ran on well and led
      clearly final 110yds - gamely(op 3/1)
    2026-04-25 Navan (IRE)   1m2f  Good To Y —   5/18  10/1    1.50L  —    79   W J Lee
      Midfield - headway 3f out - went third 2f out - weakened final
      110yds(op 17/2)
    2026-03-30 Navan (IRE)   1m    Heavy     —   3/15  16/1    2.75L  —    75   Colin Keane
      Prominent - went third under 2f out - no extra final furlong(op
      14/1)
    2025-10-16 Curragh (IRE) 1m    Yielding  —   6/16  40/1    4.25L  —    59   Ronan Whelan
      Dwelt start - in rear - steady headway from 3f out - midfield over
      1f out - kept on inside final furlong - nearest finish(op 25/1)

  Comment
    Made all - ridden when joined under 2f out - ran on well and led
    clearly final 110yds - gamely(op 3/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          1
  SP                100/30 (4.330)
  Beaten (L)        0.00
  Total beaten      0.00
  OR after          83
  In-running comment
    Made all - ridden when joined under 2f out - ran on well and led
    clearly final 110yds - gamely(op 3/1)

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4. GAELIC DRILLS (IRE)  (#8 · Σ 59.0)
   3yo C · Draw 11

  Connections
  Jockey            Declan McDonogh
  Trainer           J S Bolger
  Owner             Mrs J S Bolger

  Pedigree
  Sire              Parish Hall (IRE)
  Dam               Legal Thriller (IRE)
  Damsire           Lawman

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     12.00 (Bet365)
  09:11     15.00 (Bet365)
  14:12     13.00 (Betfred)
  14:24     11.00 (Unibet)
  14:29     10.00 (Bet365)
  16:12     11.00 (Bet365)
  17:04     10.00 (Bet365)
  17:10     11.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         7.0/10
                  RPR 70 ranks 4th in the field, just shy of the 72-73
                  leaders.
  Form          5.0/10
                  5 then 4 — heading the right way but unproven near the
                  head of affairs.
  Connections   6.0/10
                  Bolger trainer Elo 1715 strong, McDonogh experienced,
                  but recent 14d only 10% strike.
  Fitness       8.0/10
                  15 days a sharp, ideal interval.
  Trip          6.0/10
                  Parish Hall/Lawman pedigree fine over 10f.
  Pace          6.0/10
                  Should be handily placed.
  Draw          5.0/10
                  Stall 11 neutral.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No equipment angle.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights.
  Value         6.0/10
                  Public form figures may make him underrated against the
                  bigger names.
  Σ Summary     59.0/100
                  Solid all-round profile with clear chance but needs
                  another step forward.
  Verdict       Each-way

  ELO
  Horse     1524.5 (2 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1537.8 (5409 runs, 534 wins, 9.9%)
  Trainer   1714.8 (4449 runs, 485 wins, 10.9%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    429r 57w 13%  A/E 0.95 (fair)
  Jockey × trainer            115r 12w 10%  A/E 0.93 (fair)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   558r 66w 12%  A/E 0.80 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 3 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   7/13  12/1    1.50L  —    70   Declan McDonogh
      In touch with leaders - no extra from under 2f out(op 9/1)
    2026-05-03 Cork (IRE)    1m2½f Soft      —   4/10  8/1     6.00L  —    72   Seamie Heffernan
      In touch with leaders - headway over 2f out - weakened inside
      final furlong(op 11/2)
    2026-04-15 Leopardstown  1m2f  Yielding  —   5/11  20/1    0.30L  —    76   Andrew Slattery
      Midfield - kept on final furlong - never on terms(op 40/1)

  Comment
    In touch with leaders - no extra from under 2f out(op 9/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          7
  SP                12/1 (13.000)
  Beaten (L)        1.50
  Total beaten      15.25
  In-running comment
    In touch with leaders - no extra from under 2f out(op 9/1)

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5. NOBLE HONOUR (IRE)  (#14 · Σ 56.0)
   3yo F · Draw 10

  Connections
  Jockey            Shane Foley
  Trainer           Mrs John Harrington
  Owner             Forz Europe Ltd

  Pedigree
  Sire              Siyouni (FR)
  Dam               Let's Misbehave (IRE)
  Damsire           Montjeu

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     3.25 (William Hill)
  17:41     3.00 (William Hill)
  09:11     3.25 (Spreadex)
  11:29     3.00 (Unibet)
  11:39     2.90 (7Bet)
  13:35     3.00 (Unibet)
  14:31     3.25 (Virgin Bet)
  15:14     3.50 (SportingIndex)
  15:43     3.75 (William Hill)
  16:29     4.00 (William Hill)
  17:04     4.33 (Coral)
  17:10     4.50 (Coral)
  17:13     5.00 (Betfred)
  17:18     4.50 (Bet365)
  17:19     5.00 (Coral)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         7.0/10
                  RPR 71 joint-second in the field, just shy of
                  Karrygrant/Huff'n'puff.
  Form          6.0/10
                  Form '2-' is a single placed effort; promising but
                  limited to one piece of evidence.
  Connections   7.0/10
                  Harrington Elo 1614 and 14d 3/40 (8%) okay; Foley one of
                  the best (Elo 1667).
  Fitness       2.0/10
                  240 days off is a major fitness negative for a 3yo.
  Trip          7.0/10
                  Siyouni/Montjeu cross built for middle distances.
  Pace          5.0/10
                  Off so long, hard to gauge how race-ready her tactics
                  will be.
  Draw          5.0/10
                  Stall 10 mid-pack.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No equipment angle reported.
  Weight        6.0/10
                  Carries 128lb — lightest in race, weight-for-sex/age
                  allowance helpful.
  Value         6.0/10
                  Layoff may scare punters; if she shows up fit she's
                  competitive.
  Σ Summary     56.0/100
                  Strong figures and connections offset largely by the
                  eight-month absence.
  Verdict       Each-way

  ELO
  Horse     1523.7 (1 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1666.8 (7799 runs, 826 wins, 10.6%)
  Trainer   1613.7 (7152 runs, 868 wins, 12.1%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    323r 32w 10%  A/E 0.75 (negative)
  Jockey × trainer            3244r 399w 12%  A/E 0.81 (negative)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   468r 60w 13%  A/E 0.85 (fair)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 2 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   3/13  3/1     4.00L  —    71   Shane Foley
      Raced in third throughout - outpaced from under 2f out - no match
      for first two(op 7/2)
    2025-09-20 Gowran Park ( 1m    Heavy     —   2/9   14/1    0.50L  —    72   Shane Foley
      Prominent - pressed winner over 2f out - ridden over 1f out - kept
      on inside final furlong - just held(op 12/1)

  Comment
    Raced in third throughout - outpaced from under 2f out - no match for
    first two(op 7/2)

  Finishing result
  Position          3
  SP                3/1 (4.000)
  Beaten (L)        4.00
  Total beaten      4.25
  In-running comment
    Raced in third throughout - outpaced from under 2f out - no match for
    first two(op 7/2)

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6. ELZAAM EXPRESS (IRE)  (#7 · Σ 49.0)
   3yo G · Draw 1

  Connections
  Jockey            Gary Carroll
  Trainer           Gavin Cromwell
  Owner             Short Straw Syndicate

  Pedigree
  Sire              Elzaam (AUS)
  Dam               Briarfield Lass (IRE)
  Damsire           Gale Force Ten

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     67.00 (Bet365)
  09:11     81.00 (Bet365)
  10:19     71.00 (7Bet)
  13:22     81.00 (Bet365)
  17:19     101.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         2.0/10
                  RPR 30 is one of the lowest on offer.
  Form          3.0/10
                  5th on only start gives little hope of beating better.
  Connections   5.0/10
                  Cromwell yard solid but jockey only 8% strike.
  Fitness       8.0/10
                  7 days since last run — sharp turnaround.
  Trip          5.0/10
                  Elzaam/Gale Force Ten cross more sprint-leaning; 1m2f a
                  query.
  Pace          5.0/10
                  Unknown style.
  Draw          7.0/10
                  Stall 1 is the rail draw, fine.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No changes.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights.
  Value         4.0/10
                  Nothing on offer to suggest market mispricing.
  Σ Summary     49.0/100
                  Fitness sharp but figures and trip a worry.
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Jockey    1625.5 (5240 runs, 430 wins, 8.2%)
  Trainer   1591.4 (6182 runs, 759 wins, 12.3%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    245r 30w 12%  A/E 1.06 (value)
  Jockey × trainer            807r 77w 10%  A/E 0.81 (negative)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   172r 22w 13%  A/E 0.84 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 2 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   10/13 80/1    1.75L  —    30   Gary Carroll
      In rear - some headway from under 2f out(op 66/1)
    2026-05-11 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good      —   5/5   50/1    21.00L —    —    Robert Whearty
      In rear throughout(op 40/1)

  Comment
    In rear - some headway from under 2f out(op 66/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          10
  SP                80/1 (81.000)
  Beaten (L)        1.75
  Total beaten      23.75
  In-running comment
    In rear - some headway from under 2f out(op 66/1)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. GARRYOWEN GREEN (IRE)  (#9 · Σ 49.0)
   3yo G · Draw 6 · t

  Connections
  Jockey            Jack Kearney
  Trainer           Andrew McNamara
  Owner             Michael Benn

  Pedigree
  Sire              Galileo Gold (GB)
  Dam               Tadkhirah (GB)
  Damsire           Acclamation

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     151.00 (William Hill)
  17:02     201.00 (Betfred)
  18:02     176.00 (Quinn Bet)
  18:20     151.00 (William Hill)
  09:11     201.00 (Bet365)
  13:30     251.00 (William Hill)
  16:49     301.00 (William Hill)
  16:56     251.00 (Bet365)
  17:10     301.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         2.0/10
                  RPR 28 second-bottom of those with figures.
  Form          2.0/10
                  0-9 form line is damning.
  Connections   7.0/10
                  Trainer 3/8 in 14d (38%) and RTF 71 a clear stable
                  positive.
  Fitness       7.0/10
                  23-day gap fine.
  Trip          5.0/10
                  Pedigree adequate for trip.
  Pace          5.0/10
                  No identifiable style.
  Draw          6.0/10
                  Stall 6 acceptable.
  Equipment     6.0/10
                  Tongue tie still on — sometimes the trigger.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights.
  Value         4.0/10
                  Hot stable might inflate his market position; figures
                  don't back it.
  Σ Summary     49.0/100
                  Trainer in form is the only real positive against grim
                  form figures.
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Horse     1446.4 (2 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1501.2 (1107 runs, 86 wins, 7.8%)
  Trainer   1618.5 (1056 runs, 68 wins, 6.4%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    20r 1w 5%  A/E 0.45 (negative)
  Jockey × trainer            60r 5w 8%  A/E 1.19 (value)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   26r 1w 4%  A/E 0.39 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 3 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   9/13  300/1   3.75L  —    28   Jack Kearney
      Never better than midfield(op 250/1)
    2026-04-25 Limerick (IRE 7f    Yielding  —   9/10  125/1   13.00L —    30   Jack Kearney
      Always behind(op 66/1)
    2025-12-19 Dundalk (AW)  6f    Standard  —   12/14 100/1   1.25L  —    34   Leigh Roche
      Slowly away - towards rear throughout(op 80/1)

  Comment
    Never better than midfield(op 250/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          9
  SP                300/1 (301.000)
  Beaten (L)        3.75
  Total beaten      22.00
  In-running comment
    Never better than midfield(op 250/1)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. IT'S GOOD TO TALK (IRE)  (#2 · Σ 48.0)
   5yo G · Draw 17

  Connections
  Jockey            Scott McCullagh
  Trainer           Emmet Mullins
  Owner             Mrs Claire Gleeson

  Pedigree
  Sire              Caravaggio (USA)
  Dam               Hikari (IRE)
  Damsire           Galileo

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     26.00 (BetMGM)
  17:02     29.00 (BetWright)
  17:21     26.00 (BetMGM)
  00:31     29.00 (BetMGM)
  09:11     41.00 (Spreadex)
  13:24     51.00 (Spreadex)
  16:12     41.00 (William Hill)
  16:22     36.00 (7Bet)
  16:49     41.00 (Spreadex)
  16:56     36.00 (7Bet)
  17:10     41.00 (Bet365)
  17:19     51.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         3.0/10
                  Unrated on RPR/OFR which is a hole against the 70-rated
                  trio.
  Form          3.0/10
                  Two career runs with no placings logged in form string
                  supplied.
  Connections   6.0/10
                  Emmet Mullins (trainer Elo 1641, RTF 60) is a plus but
                  jockey is weakest of the top names.
  Fitness       7.0/10
                  18 days since last run is a healthy turnaround for a
                  yard that often improves second time.
  Trip          5.0/10
                  Caravaggio/Galileo cross is versatile; should handle
                  1m2f.
  Pace          5.0/10
                  Likely held up in midfield, no strong pace bias.
  Draw          4.0/10
                  Stall 17 (widest) is mildly unhelpful at Roscommon.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No equipment changes signalled.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights, 147lb older-horse allowance neutral.
  Value         5.0/10
                  Stable angle could see him overlooked but no compelling
                  overlay signal.
  Σ Summary     48.0/100
                  Stable and turnaround keep him in the picture but the
                  absence of figures caps confidence.
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Horse     1501.5 (2 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1466.1 (1265 runs, 90 wins, 7.1%)
  Trainer   1640.6 (1243 runs, 188 wins, 15.1%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    33r 0w 0%  A/E 0.00 (negative)
  Jockey × trainer            no data
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   25r 2w 8%  A/E 0.35 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 3 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   12/13 66/1    0.50L  —    —    Scott McCullagh
      Dwelt start - always behind(op 28/1)
    2026-04-30 Punchestown ( 2m½f  Yielding  —   9/10  14/1    1.25L  —    105  Mr J L Gleeson
      Towards rear - midfield under 3f out - weakened from 2f out(op
      11/1)
    2026-02-22 Naas (IRE)    1m7½f Heavy     —   2/6   11/4    10.00L —    118  Mr J L Gleeson
      In touch with leaders - pushed along and went second 1f out - soon
      no chance with winner(op 7/4)

  Comment
    Dwelt start - always behind(op 28/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          12
  SP                66/1 (67.000)
  Beaten (L)        0.50
  Total beaten      25.50
  In-running comment
    Dwelt start - always behind(op 28/1)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9. AVEC GRAND PLAISIR (FR)  (#5 · Σ 47.0)
   3yo G · Draw 2

  Connections
  Jockey            Nathan Crosse
  Trainer           Jarlath P Fahey
  Owner             Mrs Kathleen Whelan

  Pedigree
  Sire              St Mark's Basilica (FR)
  Dam               Rufoof (GB)
  Damsire           Zamindar

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     41.00 (Bet365)
  11:19     36.00 (7Bet)
  11:33     41.00 (Bet365)
  12:47     36.00 (7Bet)
  14:18     41.00 (Bet365)
  15:14     51.00 (Bet365)
  15:43     41.00 (Bet365)
  16:56     51.00 (William Hill)
  17:04     41.00 (Bet365)
  17:10     51.00 (Bet365)
  17:13     41.00 (Bet365)
  17:19     51.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         3.0/10
                  RPR 54 mid-pack within field but below 70-rated trio.
  Form          3.0/10
                  Form 0-7 reads disappointingly across seven starts.
  Connections   4.0/10
                  Trainer Elo 1474 and RTF 17 below average; jockey
                  moderate.
  Fitness       6.0/10
                  33 days off is acceptable.
  Trip          5.0/10
                  St Mark's Basilica colt should stay 1m2f.
  Pace          5.0/10
                  No notable style.
  Draw          7.0/10
                  Stall 2 a small plus.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No changes.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights.
  Value         4.0/10
                  Hard to back a chronic maiden.
  Σ Summary     47.0/100
                  Plenty of experience but stuck-in-the-mud profile.
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Horse     1472.7 (3 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1512.5 (2629 runs, 144 wins, 5.5%)
  Trainer   1473.7 (942 runs, 70 wins, 7.4%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    60r 1w 2%  A/E 0.21 (negative)
  Jockey × trainer            1r 0w 0%  A/E 0.00 (negative)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   63r 1w 2%  A/E 0.24 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 3 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   5/13  50/1    3.75L  —    54   Nathan Crosse
      Midfield - some headway from 2f out(op 40/1)
    2026-04-15 Leopardstown  1m2f  Yielding  —   7/11  25/1    0.10L  —    60   Ronan Whelan
      Prominent - raced in third after 2f - weakened over 1f out(op 50/1
      tchd 18/1)
    2025-11-02 Curragh (IRE) 1m    Heavy     —   12/20 22/1    1.00L  —    39   Gary Carroll
      Midfield - outpaced 3f out - weakened over 1f out(op 33/1)

  Comment
    Midfield - some headway from 2f out(op 40/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          5
  SP                50/1 (51.000)
  Beaten (L)        3.75
  Total beaten      13.00
  In-running comment
    Midfield - some headway from 2f out(op 40/1)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10. GALILEO SPRINGS (IRE)  (#3 · Σ 45.0)
   6yo M · Draw 4 · t

  Connections
  Jockey            Leigh Roche
  Trainer           Martin Brassil
  Owner             Click Collect Racing Syndicate

  Pedigree
  Sire              Galileo Gold (GB)
  Dam               Maghzaa (IRE)
  Damsire           Aqlaam

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     23.00 (William Hill)
  17:02     26.00 (BetWright)
  17:21     23.00 (William Hill)
  09:11     36.00 (7Bet)
  15:43     41.00 (Midnite)
  15:49     36.00 (7Bet)
  16:56     34.00 (Bet365)
  17:10     41.00 (Bet365)
  17:18     51.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         4.0/10
                  Has previously won (Elo 1588) which sets him above the
                  truly unraced types.
  Form          3.0/10
                  No recent line; form string blank, 1 win from 9
                  historically.
  Connections   5.0/10
                  Brassil yard solid (trainer Elo 1716) but 0-3 last 14
                  days; jockey adequate.
  Fitness       2.0/10
                  215 days off is a major fitness concern.
  Trip          5.0/10
                  Tongue tie suggests a stamina configuration; trip should
                  not be an issue.
  Pace          4.0/10
                  No clear pace profile, likely mid-division.
  Draw          6.0/10
                  Stall 4 a slight positive on the inside.
  Equipment     6.0/10
                  Tongue tie applied, sometimes helps off a break.
  Weight        6.0/10
                  Carries 142lb — relatively light for a 6yo.
  Value         4.0/10
                  Layoff makes him overlooked but unlikely to be sharp
                  enough first up.
  Σ Summary     45.0/100
                  Some class hints but the long absence and quiet yard
                  limit him.
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Horse     1588.5 (9 runs, 1 wins, 11.1%)
  Jockey    1497.1 (4180 runs, 271 wins, 6.5%)
  Trainer   1716.1 (743 runs, 87 wins, 11.7%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    141r 12w 9%  A/E 1.34 (value)
  Jockey × trainer            1r 0w 0%  A/E 0.00 (negative)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   59r 6w 10%  A/E 1.05 (fair)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 10 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   6/13  50/1    0.75L  —    —    Leigh Roche
      Midfield - no extra from 2f out(op 33/1)
    2025-10-15 Punchestown ( 2m½f  Good To Y —   3/8   7/2     2.25L  102  105  Ricky Doyle
      Prominent - led before 2 out - headed before last - soon
      weakened(tchd 4/1)
    2025-10-05 Killarney (IR 2m1f  Yielding  —   1/10  EvensF  won    100  105  Ricky Doyle
      Prominent - led 1st - headed but pressed leader 5th - led again 2
      out - nudged out and kept on well run-in - comfortably(op 10/11)
    2025-08-10 Downpatrick ( 2m2f  Good      —   2/8   5/4F    5.00L  —    97   Ricky Doyle
      In touch with leaders - challenging last - went second run-in - no
      match for winner(op 7/4)
    2025-07-07 Roscommon (IR 2m    Good      —   7/9   7/1     1.75L  —    85   Miss Ella Herbison
      Prominent - led over 3f out - headed over 2f out - weakened over
      1f out(op 6/1)
    2025-01-13 Punchestown ( 2m½f  Soft      —   3/6   7/2     5.50L  —    104  Mr J H Williamson
      Took keen hold - prominent - disputing second 5f out - joined
      leader on near side of group 3f out - outpaced over 1f out - kept
      on but no impression inside final furlong - no match for first
      two(op 4/1)
    2024-12-14 Fairyhouse (I 2m½f  Yielding  —   2/10  9/1     9.00L  —    105  Mr J H Williamson
      Held up in rear - headway on inner from over 3f out - went third
      when ridden and outpaced from 2f out - kept on and went second but
      no chance with winner inside final 110yds(op 17/2 tchd 15/2)
    2024-11-10 Naas (IRE)    2m    Good To Y —   2/11  18/1    2.50L  —    103  Carl Millar
      Took keen hold - midfield - in touch with leaders 6f out - bit
      short of room when switched right over 2f out - soon headway -
      went second final 110yds - no match for winner(tchd 22/1)
    2024-10-04 Gowran Park ( 2m    Good      —   9/18  100/1   0.20L  —    87   Ricky Doyle
      Midfield - no impression from 2 out(op 80/1)
    2024-06-10 Roscommon (IR 1m7½f Good      —   9/16  16/1    0.20L  —    80   John Shinnick
      Didn't always jump with fluency - towards rear early - midfield
      when hampered by faller and carried right 4 out - headway towards
      near side 3 out - in touch with leaders when bit short of room and
      switched right approaching last - weakened run-in

  Comment
    Midfield - no extra from 2f out(op 33/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          6
  SP                50/1 (51.000)
  Beaten (L)        0.75
  Total beaten      13.75
  In-running comment
    Midfield - no extra from 2f out(op 33/1)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11. AFRICAN AFFAIR (IRE)  (#4 · Σ 45.0)
   3yo G · Draw 16

  Connections
  Jockey            Robbie Colgan
  Trainer           Ms Sheila Lavery
  Owner             Making Memories Racing Club

  Pedigree
  Sire              Sands Of Mali (FR)
  Dam               Imdancinwithurwife (IRE)
  Damsire           Sir Prancealot

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     151.00 (William Hill)
  17:02     201.00 (Betfred)
  18:02     176.00 (Quinn Bet)
  18:20     151.00 (William Hill)
  09:11     201.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         3.0/10
                  RPR 44 is well below the leading 70-73 group.
  Form          3.0/10
                  Form figures 0-0; nothing to grab onto yet.
  Connections   4.0/10
                  Lavery stable adequate (Elo 1590) but jockey low strike
                  rate.
  Fitness       7.0/10
                  23 days is an ideal sweet-spot.
  Trip          4.0/10
                  Sands Of Mali progeny lean to shorter trips; 1m2f may
                  stretch her.
  Pace          5.0/10
                  No marked style.
  Draw          4.0/10
                  Stall 16 a touch wide.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No headgear changes.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights.
  Value         5.0/10
                  Neutral.
  Σ Summary     45.0/100
                  Workable fitness profile but figures and stamina
                  questions hold her back.
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Horse     1456.1 (2 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1483.0 (4011 runs, 161 wins, 4.0%)
  Trainer   1590.2 (1740 runs, 134 wins, 7.7%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    213r 9w 4%  A/E 0.69 (negative)
  Jockey × trainer            953r 57w 6%  A/E 0.76 (negative)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   57r 7w 12%  A/E 1.24 (value)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 3 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   8/13  150/1   3.00L  —    44   Robbie Colgan
      Dwelt start - never better than midfield(op 200/1)
    2026-04-25 Navan (IRE)   1m2f  Good To Y —   12/18 200/1   3.75L  —    50   Robbie Colgan
      Never better than midfield
    2025-09-18 Naas (IRE)    7f    Yielding  —   15/16 100/1   2.25L  —    8    Robbie Colgan
      Midfield - lost position and towards rear 3f out - soon no
      extra(op 66/1 tchd 125/1)

  Comment
    Dwelt start - never better than midfield(op 200/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          8
  SP                150/1 (151.000)
  Beaten (L)        3.00
  Total beaten      18.25
  In-running comment
    Dwelt start - never better than midfield(op 200/1)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12. SOLAR JET (IRE)  (#12 · Σ 44.0)
   3yo G · Draw 14

  Connections
  Jockey            Ronan Whelan
  Trainer           John S O'Donoghue
  Owner             May Mullin

  Pedigree
  Sire              Al Kazeem (GB)
  Dam               Star Jet (IRE)
  Damsire           Teofilo

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     51.00 (Bet365)
  13:22     67.00 (Bet365)
  13:30     71.00 (7Bet)
  17:18     61.00 (Dragon Bet)
  17:19     71.00 (7Bet)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         3.0/10
                  No figures whatsoever to rank against rivals.
  Form          3.0/10
                  Unraced — nothing to assess.
  Connections   5.0/10
                  Trainer modest (Elo 1575), jockey adequate (Elo 1660).
  Fitness       4.0/10
                  Debutant — fitness an unknown.
  Trip          6.0/10
                  Al Kazeem/Teofilo cross built for middle-distance trips.
  Pace          4.0/10
                  No known style.
  Draw          5.0/10
                  Stall 14 neutral.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No equipment angle.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights.
  Value         4.0/10
                  Stable not the type to land big debut gambles.
  Σ Summary     44.0/100
                  Mostly a guess — pedigree fine but nothing tangible to
                  lift him.
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Jockey    1659.9 (5619 runs, 506 wins, 9.0%)
  Trainer   1575.2 (338 runs, 27 wins, 8.0%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    200r 14w 7%  A/E 0.73 (negative)
  Jockey × trainer            122r 13w 11%  A/E 1.16 (value)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   11r 0w 0%  A/E 0.00 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 1 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   13/13 40/1    1.25L  —    —    Ronan Whelan
      Dwelt start - always behind(op 50/1 tchd 66/1)

  Comment
    Dwelt start - always behind(op 50/1 tchd 66/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          13
  SP                40/1 (41.000)
  Beaten (L)        1.25
  Total beaten      26.75
  In-running comment
    Dwelt start - always behind(op 50/1 tchd 66/1)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13. BELIEVE AGAIN (IRE)  (#1 · Σ 36.0)
   5yo G · Draw 8

  Connections
  Jockey            Seamie Heffernan
  Trainer           Seamus G O'Donnell
  Owner             Seamus G Odonnell

  Pedigree
  Sire              Make Believe (GB)
  Dam               Lily Again (GB)
  Damsire           American Post

  Form / ratings
  Form string       —
  Last run (days)   —
  OFR               —
  RPR               –
  TS                —

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     151.00 (William Hill)
  17:02     201.00 (Betfred)
  18:02     176.00 (Quinn Bet)
  18:20     151.00 (William Hill)
  09:11     201.00 (Bet365)
  13:30     251.00 (William Hill)
  16:49     301.00 (William Hill)
  16:56     251.00 (Bet365)
  17:10     351.00 (Ladbrokes)
  17:13     301.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         2.0/10
                  No RPR/OFR/TS — must rate near the bottom against rivals
                  carrying figures in the 60s/70s.
  Form          2.0/10
                  Only one run on record, completed but unplaced, no
                  recent line to assess.
  Connections   4.0/10
                  Heffernan a positive booking (jockey Elo 1629) but
                  trainer 2-0 in 14d and trainer Elo 1366 is weak.
  Fitness       2.0/10
                  235 days since last/only run is a significant negative
                  for fitness.
  Trip          4.0/10
                  Make Believe/American Post pedigree suggests stamina but
                  unproven at 1m2f or any trip.
  Pace          4.0/10
                  No known running style; likely to be ridden patiently
                  and outpaced.
  Draw          5.0/10
                  Stall 8 is neutral on Roscommon's right-handed circuit
                  at this trip.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No headgear changes flagged.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights — carries the older-horse allowance at
                  147lb, neutral effect.
  Value         3.0/10
                  Stable Elo and form give little reason for the market to
                  underrate; nothing here to exploit.
  Σ Summary     36.0/100
                  Bottom-tier of the field on every meaningful axis — no
                  figures, long layoff, weak yard.
  Verdict       Avoid

  ELO
  Horse     1463.7 (1 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1628.7 (5322 runs, 508 wins, 9.5%)
  Trainer   1366.0 (201 runs, 10 wins, 5.0%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    414r 19w 5%  A/E 0.51 (negative)
  Jockey × trainer            85r 3w 4%  A/E 0.65 (negative)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   18r 0w 0%  A/E 0.00 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Past form (last 2 races)
    Date       Course        Dist  Going     Cl  Pos   SP      Btn    OR   RPR  Jockey
    2026-05-18 Roscommon (IR 1m2½f Good To Y —   11/13 200/1   1.25L  —    —    Seamie Heffernan
      Dwelt start - midfield - weakened from over 3f out(op 250/1 tchd
      300/1)
    2025-09-25 Listowel (IRE 2m    Good To Y —   17/18 200/1   15.00L —    36   Mr P W Gleeson
      Towards rear - weakened over 4f out(op 100/1 tchd 80/1)

  Comment
    Dwelt start - midfield - weakened from over 3f out(op 250/1 tchd
    300/1)

  Finishing result
  Position          11
  SP                200/1 (201.000)
  Beaten (L)        1.25
  Total beaten      25.00
  In-running comment
    Dwelt start - midfield - weakened from over 3f out(op 250/1 tchd
    300/1)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
14. ZELANI (NR)  (#NR · Σ 57.0)
   3yo G · 133lb · Draw 3

  Connections
  Jockey            Chris Hayes
  Trainer           D K Weld (Curragh, Co Kildare)
  Owner             Exors Of The Late H H Aga Khan
  Breeder           His Highness The Aga Khan's Studs S C
  Trainer 14d       0/10 (0%)
  DOB               2023-02-13

  Pedigree
  Sire              New Bay (GB)
  Dam               Zenya (IRE)
  Damsire           Raven's Pass

  Form / ratings
  Form string       5
  Last run (days)   49
  OFR               -
  RPR               58
  TS                47

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  All bookmaker prices
  Bet365              - (-) · EW 4/5
  William Hill        - (-) · EW 3/5
  Coral               - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betfred             - (-) · EW 3/5
  Boyle Sports        - (-) · EW 3/5
  Ladbrokes           - (-) · EW 3/5
  Unibet              - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetTom              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Bet Victor          - (-) · EW 3/5
  10 Bet              - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetMGM              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Grosvenor Sports    - (-) · EW 3/5
  Virgin Bet          - (-) · EW 3/5
  talkSPORT BET       - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetWright           - (-) · EW 3/5
  LiveScore Bet       - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betano              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Dragon Bet          - (-) · EW 3/5
  CopyBet             - (-) · EW 3/5
  PricedUp Bet        - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetAhoy             - (-) · EW 3/5
  Spreadex            - (-) · EW 3/5
  BresBet             - (-) · EW 3/5
  BestOdds            - (-) · EW 3/5
  7Bet                - (-) · EW 3/5
  Star Sports         - (-) · EW 3/5
  Midnite             - (-) · EW 3/5
  SportingIndex       - (-) · EW 3/5
  Quinn Bet           - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betfair Exchange    - (-)

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     7.50 (Bet365)
  09:11     7.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         5.0/10
                  RPR 58 sits in the middle of the pack with upside as a
                  second-run prospect.
  Form          5.0/10
                  5th on debut — par effort with room to step forward.
  Connections   6.0/10
                  Weld classy operation but 0-10 last 14 days is a
                  concern.
  Fitness       5.0/10
                  49-day gap a bit on the long side.
  Trip          7.0/10
                  New Bay/Raven's Pass pedigree stays well; should
                  appreciate 1m2f.
  Pace          6.0/10
                  Likely ridden patiently then asked to quicken.
  Draw          7.0/10
                  Stall 3 a small plus.
  Equipment     5.0/10
                  No equipment angle.
  Weight        5.0/10
                  Maiden weights.
  Value         6.0/10
                  Weld 0-10 form may dampen his market — sneaky each-way
                  claim.
  Σ Summary     57.0/100
                  Sensible second-run prospect from a major yard.
  Verdict       Each-way

  ELO
  Horse     1515.2 (1 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1624.9 (8021 runs, 657 wins, 8.2%)
  Trainer   1663.9 (3960 runs, 554 wins, 14.0%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    358r 32w 9%  A/E 0.79 (negative)
  Jockey × trainer            1079r 131w 12%  A/E 0.77 (negative)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   515r 73w 14%  A/E 0.77 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Spotlight
    Fair fifth over 1m at Navan on debut and improvement on the cards over
    this longer trip; has almost 5l to find with third-placed Huff'n'puff.

  Comment
    Fair fifth over 1m at Navan on debut, improvement on the cards over
    this longer trip

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15. RYANS HOPE (NR)  (#NR · Σ 3.38)
   6yo G · 147lb · Draw 5

  Connections
  Jockey            —
  Trainer           G A Kingston (Drogheda, Co Louth)
  Owner             Mrs B Ryan
  Breeder           Ms Sheila Lavery
  Trainer 14d       0/2 (0%)
  DOB               2020-04-25

  Pedigree
  Sire              Ivawood (IRE)
  Dam               Parlour (GB)
  Damsire           Dansili

  Form / ratings
  Form string       3-7
  Last run (days)   10
  OFR               -
  RPR               56
  TS                -

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  All bookmaker prices
  Bet365              - (-) · EW 4/5
  William Hill        - (-) · EW 3/5
  Coral               - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betfred             - (-) · EW 3/5
  Boyle Sports        - (-) · EW 3/5
  Ladbrokes           - (-) · EW 3/5
  Unibet              - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetTom              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Bet Victor          - (-) · EW 3/5
  10 Bet              - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetMGM              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Grosvenor Sports    - (-) · EW 3/5
  Virgin Bet          - (-) · EW 3/5
  talkSPORT BET       - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetWright           - (-) · EW 3/5
  LiveScore Bet       - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betano              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Dragon Bet          - (-) · EW 3/5
  CopyBet             - (-) · EW 3/5
  PricedUp Bet        - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetAhoy             - (-) · EW 3/5
  Spreadex            - (-) · EW 3/5
  BresBet             - (-) · EW 3/5
  BestOdds            - (-) · EW 3/5
  7Bet                - (-) · EW 3/5
  Star Sports         - (-) · EW 3/5
  Midnite             - (-) · EW 3/5
  SportingIndex       - (-) · EW 3/5
  Quinn Bet           - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betfair Exchange    - (-)

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     101.00 (CopyBet)
  19:02     61.00 (BetWright)
  19:20     51.00 (William Hill)
  09:11     71.00 (7Bet)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         3.7/10
  Form          2.9/10
  Connections   3.0/10
  Fitness       4.4/10
  Value         2.9/10
  Σ Summary     3.38/100
  Verdict       Each-way

  ELO
  Horse     1489.6 (2 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Trainer   1498.4 (309 runs, 13 wins, 4.2%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    no data
  Jockey × trainer            no data
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   17r 0w 0%  A/E 0.00 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Spotlight
    Third on only start for Iain Jardine in a Newcastle maiden in February
    2024; no impact on recent Irish debut; third reserve.

  Comment
    Third reserve, placed in a small-field event in Britain, no impact on
    recent Irish debut

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16. GRENNANSTOWN LADY (NR)  (#NR · Σ 2.8)
   5yo M · 142lb · Draw 15

  Connections
  Jockey            Colin Keane
  Trainer           Gerard Keane (Trim, Co Meath)
  Owner             Steven Vaughan
  Breeder           Kenneth Parkhill
  Trainer 14d       1/7 (14%)
  DOB               2021-02-17

  Pedigree
  Sire              Elusive Pimpernel (USA)
  Dam               Annie Burke (IRE)
  Damsire           Yeats

  Form / ratings
  Form string       07
  Last run (days)   13
  OFR               -
  RPR               32
  TS                -

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  All bookmaker prices
  Bet365              - (-) · EW 4/5
  William Hill        - (-) · EW 3/5
  Coral               - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betfred             - (-) · EW 3/5
  Boyle Sports        - (-) · EW 3/5
  Ladbrokes           - (-) · EW 3/5
  Unibet              - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetTom              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Bet Victor          - (-) · EW 3/5
  10 Bet              - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetMGM              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Grosvenor Sports    - (-) · EW 3/5
  Virgin Bet          - (-) · EW 3/5
  talkSPORT BET       - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetWright           - (-) · EW 3/5
  LiveScore Bet       - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betano              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Dragon Bet          - (-) · EW 3/5
  CopyBet             - (-) · EW 3/5
  PricedUp Bet        - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetAhoy             - (-) · EW 3/5
  Spreadex            - (-) · EW 3/5
  BresBet             - (-) · EW 3/5
  BestOdds            - (-) · EW 3/5
  7Bet                - (-) · EW 3/5
  Star Sports         - (-) · EW 3/5
  Midnite             - (-) · EW 3/5
  SportingIndex       - (-) · EW 3/5
  Quinn Bet           - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betfair Exchange    - (-)

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     126.00 (Bet365)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         2.3/10
  Form          1.7/10
  Connections   3.8/10
  Fitness       4.4/10
  Value         2.7/10
  Σ Summary     2.8/100
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Horse     1459.4 (5 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Jockey    1709.0 (8411 runs, 1235 wins, 14.7%)
  Trainer   1514.8 (1003 runs, 67 wins, 6.7%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    283r 48w 17%  A/E 0.87 (fair)
  Jockey × trainer            353r 36w 10%  A/E 0.80 (negative)
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   144r 8w 6%  A/E 0.66 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Spotlight
    Showed little over hurdles last year; well beaten in two Flat starts
    this term; first reserve.

  Comment
    First reserve, showed little over hurdles last year, well beaten in
    two Flat starts

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
17. MATADA (NR)  (#NR · Σ 2.31)
   3yo G · 133lb · Draw 12

  Connections
  Jockey            —
  Trainer           Gavin Cromwell (Navan, Co. Meath)
  Owner             Matthew Rogers
  Breeder           De Pine
  Trainer 14d       5/57 (9%)
  DOB               2023-02-14

  Pedigree
  Sire              Galiway (GB)
  Dam               Gokena (FR)
  Damsire           Kendargent

  Form / ratings
  Form string       00
  Last run (days)   13
  OFR               -
  RPR               28
  TS                11

  Prices & value
  EV                —
  Kelly (¼)         0.00%

  All bookmaker prices
  Bet365              - (-) · EW 4/5
  William Hill        - (-) · EW 3/5
  Coral               - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betfred             - (-) · EW 3/5
  Boyle Sports        - (-) · EW 3/5
  Ladbrokes           - (-) · EW 3/5
  Unibet              - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetTom              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Bet Victor          - (-) · EW 3/5
  10 Bet              - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetMGM              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Grosvenor Sports    - (-) · EW 3/5
  Virgin Bet          - (-) · EW 3/5
  talkSPORT BET       - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetWright           - (-) · EW 3/5
  LiveScore Bet       - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betano              - (-) · EW 3/5
  Dragon Bet          - (-) · EW 3/5
  CopyBet             - (-) · EW 3/5
  PricedUp Bet        - (-) · EW 3/5
  BetAhoy             - (-) · EW 3/5
  Spreadex            - (-) · EW 3/5
  BresBet             - (-) · EW 3/5
  BestOdds            - (-) · EW 3/5
  7Bet                - (-) · EW 3/5
  Star Sports         - (-) · EW 3/5
  Midnite             - (-) · EW 3/5
  SportingIndex       - (-) · EW 3/5
  Quinn Bet           - (-) · EW 3/5
  Betfair Exchange    - (-)

  Best-odds movement
  16:42     126.00 (William Hill)
  17:02     151.00 (Betfred)
  18:20     126.00 (William Hill)

  AI ratings (1-10 per dimension)
  Class         1.0/10
  Form          1.5/10
  Connections   3.3/10
  Fitness       4.4/10
  Value         2.8/10
  Σ Summary     2.31/100
  Verdict       Outsider

  ELO
  Horse     1464.6 (2 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%)
  Trainer   1591.4 (6182 runs, 759 wins, 12.3%)

  Pedigree & partner analytics
  Horse @ 1m2½f               no data
  Jockey @ 1m2½f              no data
  Jockey @ Roscommon (IRE)    no data
  Jockey × trainer            no data
  Trainer @ 1m2½f             no data
  Trainer @ Roscommon (IRE)   172r 22w 13%  A/E 0.84 (negative)
  Sire progeny @ 1m2½f        no data
  Sire progeny in this class  no data
  Dam progeny @ 1m2½f         no data
  Dam progeny in this class   no data
  Damsire grand @ 1m2½f       no data
  Damsire grand in this class no data

  Spotlight
    Has failed to make the first ten in maidens at Navan and Gowran;
    second reserve.

  Comment
    Second reserve, has failed to make the first ten in maidens at Navan
    and Gowran

==============================================================================
HEAD-TO-HEAD (3 past meetings between today's runners)
==============================================================================

2026-05-18 · Roscommon (IRE) · 1m2½f · Good To Yielding
  Michael Tiger Lyons Memorial Maiden
     1  Huff'n'puff (GB)              won       SP 100/30
     2  Changing Lanes (GB)           0.30L     SP 9/2
     3  Noble Honour (IRE)            4.00L     SP 3/1
     4  Karrygrant (IRE)              5.00L     SP 6/4F
     5  Avec Grand Plaisir (FR)       3.75L     SP 50/1
     6  Galileo Springs (IRE)         0.75L     SP 50/1
     7  Gaelic Drills (IRE)           1.50L     SP 12/1
     8  African Affair (IRE)          3.00L     SP 150/1
     9  Garryowen Green (IRE)         3.75L     SP 300/1
    10  Elzaam Express (IRE)          1.75L     SP 80/1
    11  Believe Again (IRE)           1.25L     SP 200/1
    12  It's Good To Talk (IRE)       0.50L     SP 66/1
    13  Solar Jet (IRE)               1.25L     SP 40/1

2026-04-25 · Navan (IRE) · 1m2f · Good To Yielding
  Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden (Smullen Series)
     5  Huff'n'puff (GB)              1.50L     SP 10/1
    12  African Affair (IRE)          3.75L     SP 200/1

2026-04-15 · Leopardstown (IRE) · 1m2f · Yielding To Soft
  Student Style Awards (C & G) Maiden
     5  Gaelic Drills (IRE)           0.30L     SP 20/1
     7  Avec Grand Plaisir (FR)       0.10L     SP 25/1

==============================================================================
AI RACE VERDICT
==============================================================================

Pace scenario:
  Likely steady to even gallop in a small-pot Irish maiden over 1m2f;
  suits patient riders coming off the home turn and hold-up types with
  finishing speed.

Narrative:
  A typical Roscommon maiden where the top of the ratings is led by
  Huff'n'puff (RPR 73) and Karrygrant (RPR 72), both with prior placed
  efforts and trips that fit. Changing Lanes is the most interesting
  unknown — just one run (a third) but the Joseph O'Brien stable is firing
  at 20% over 14 days and Browne McMonagle stays on. Noble Honour shaped
  well on debut last summer but a 240-day layoff is a major negative for a
  maiden of this nature. The trip looks ideal for the proven stayer
  Karrygrant, who narrowly tops the form.

Recommended: Karrygrant
  Marginal top on RPR/OFR/TS combination, twice placed including a second,
  returns fresh-ish at 37 days for an in-form Murtagh yard with Coen up.
  Trip and gentle Roscommon track suit a steady stayer.

Alternative: Changing Lanes
  Most likely improver: only one start (third), strong Joseph O'Brien yard
  hitting 20% over the last 14 days and Browne McMonagle riding. Big
  upside if the debut effort is reproduced with experience.

==============================================================================
Generated 2026-05-19 13:39 UTC · HorseRacingValue.com · race rac_11969113