============================================================================== RACE: Redcar ? · 2026-05-18 racingtv.com Handicap (Div II) Good · Flat · Turf ============================================================================== Status FINISHED ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. BLACK ROCK BEAUTY (IRE) (#2 · Σ 61.0) 3yo G · Draw 2 · p Connections Jockey Oisin Orr Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey Owner Fides Et Robur Pedigree Sire Dandy Man (IRE) Dam Brown Bee (IRE) Damsire Camacho Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 15:42 6.00 (Bet365) 16:21 5.50 (Bet365) 17:02 6.00 (William Hill) 00:31 6.50 (William Hill) 12:31 7.00 (Betfred) 12:41 7.50 (Spreadex) 13:28 8.00 (Betfred) 15:14 7.50 (William Hill) 15:40 8.00 (Betfred) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 8.0/10 Highest RPR (68) by 2lb over the next-best and joint-second OFR; clearly handicapped to be involved. Form 4.0/10 Form 668-74 shows steady improvement to a 4th last out before the break — fair without being eye-catching. Connections 7.0/10 Fahey yard 6/45 (13%) last 14d with Elo 1637; Oisin Orr a competent senior rider with 11% career strike. Fitness 4.0/10 89 days since last run is a meaningful layoff for a Class 6 3yo — needs to bounce off the break. Trip 6.0/10 Dandy Man stock handle 7f well and last-time figure was over today's distance. Pace 6.0/10 Versatile tactically; in a likely muddling-pace race she can be placed. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 2 is neutral over 7f at Redcar. Equipment 8.0/10 First-time cheekpieces is the headline tongue-tier angle for a Fahey returner. Weight 6.0/10 134lb off OFR 58 — competitive within the field, not punitively high. Value 6.0/10 Layoff likely deters punters slightly relative to her ratings edge — modest overlay candidate. Σ Summary 61.0/100 Combination of top RPR, headgear tweak, and a yard that knows how to ready returners makes her the marginal pick despite the absence. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1456.0 (5 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1599.3 (4200 runs, 450 wins, 10.7%) Trainer 1637.0 (105 runs, 11 wins, 10.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Redcar 97r 15w 15% A/E 0.97 (fair) Jockey × trainer 25r 2w 8% A/E 0.52 (negative) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Redcar 8r 3w 38% A/E 2.06 (value) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 6 3560r 375w 11% A/E 0.87 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 6 7r 1w 14% A/E 1.78 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 6 356r 49w 14% A/E 1.04 (fair) Past form (last 6 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Redcar 7f Good Cla 1/9 17/2 won 58 68 Oisin Orr Prominent - pushed along and challenging over 1f out - ridden and led inside final 110yds - kept on well(op 13/2) 2026-02-18 Kempton (AW) 7f Standard Cla 4/7 11/1 3.25L 60 48 Ethan Tindall Bumped rival start - took keen hold - in touch with leaders - outpaced over 2f out - some headway over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 10/1) 2026-01-12 Wolverhampton 6f Standard Cla 7/9 20/1 0.30L 62 51 Warren Fentiman In rear throughout(op 16/1 tchd 14/1) 2025-12-13 Wolverhampton 5f Standard Cla 8/10 33/1 1.00L — 49 Harry Russell Towards rear throughout (an inquiry held into the running and riding; jockey stated his instructions were to jump out - take a lead and sit where he was comfortable - enabling gelding to get into a rhythm and finish the race as best as possible; jockey added gelding was a step slow into stride and thereafter he had been reluctant to fully commit down the inner; jockey continued by saying that once he was confident it was safe for him to improve his position through along the rail - he asked gelding for his finishing effort near the 2f marker from which point the gelding stayed on evenly despite still showing signs of inexperience; jockey further added he was unaware of why gelding had been dropped back to 5f on this occasion having run over 6f on both his previous starts - however his recommendation to the trainer would be thathe needs a step back up in trip on this evidence)(op 22/1) 2025-11-24 Wolverhampton 6f Standard Cla 6/13 33/1 1.25L — 59 Oisin McSweeney Midfield - ridden and kept on inside final furlong - never near to challenge(op 18/1) 2025-07-18 Hamilton 6f Good Cla 6/6 18/1 1.25L — 43 Billy Garritty Dwelt start - soon in touch with leaders - weakened over 1f out(op 14/1) Comment Prominent - pushed along and challenging over 1f out - ridden and led inside final 110yds - kept on well(op 13/2) Finishing result Position 1 SP 17/2 (9.500) Beaten (L) 0.00 Total beaten 0.00 OR after 58 In-running comment Prominent - pushed along and challenging over 1f out - ridden and led inside final 110yds - kept on well(op 13/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2. LONG SHOT (GB) (#7 · Σ 60.0) 3yo G · Draw 9 · p Connections Jockey David Allan Trainer Tim Easterby Owner Racing Knights Ptnr Pedigree Sire Mattmu (GB) Dam Gran Canaria Queen (GB) Damsire Compton Place Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 15:42 4.00 (Bet365) 16:42 4.33 (Bet365) 17:02 5.00 (Bet365) 20:41 4.50 (Bet365) 00:31 4.00 (Bet365) 03:02 3.75 (Bet365) 04:01 4.00 (Bet365) 09:11 5.50 (Bet365) 09:16 5.00 (Bet365) 12:29 5.50 (Bet365) 13:22 5.00 (Bet365) 14:10 5.50 (Bet365) 14:24 5.00 (Bet365) 15:40 4.50 (William Hill) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 RPR 65 is mid-field; OFR 51 is mid-pack — credible without being top-end. Form 5.0/10 Form 086-38 — a placing last time at this level suggests interest. Connections 9.0/10 Easterby yard Elo 1635 and 12 winners in last 14d; David Allan jockey Elo 1681 — best combo in the race. Fitness 7.0/10 Quick 11-day turnaround off the back of a creditable 3rd. Trip 6.0/10 Mattmu stock are typically 6-7f types; trip looks ideal. Pace 5.0/10 Hold-up runner — fine in a moderate-tempo affair. Draw 3.0/10 Stall 9 of 9 over 7f at Redcar is a clear negative — wide and likely to be racing alone or used early. Equipment 6.0/10 Cheekpieces reapplied after producing improvement last time. Weight 7.0/10 Carrying 127lb off OFR 51 — a reasonable mark relative to last-time effort. Value 6.0/10 Connections often get backed but the draw will scare some money — fair price likely available. Σ Summary 60.0/100 Best connections in the race and last-day improvement are big positives — only the draw really stops a higher score. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1475.0 (6 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1681.2 (7057 runs, 790 wins, 11.2%) Trainer 1635.0 (11825 runs, 1281 wins, 10.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Redcar 1278r 137w 11% A/E 0.93 (fair) Jockey × trainer 8801r 961w 11% A/E 0.84 (negative) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Redcar 2289r 179w 8% A/E 0.77 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 6 24r 3w 12% A/E 0.98 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 6 77r 9w 12% A/E 0.74 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 6 1444r 143w 10% A/E 0.88 (fair) Past form (last 7 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Redcar 7f Good Cla 2/9 11/4F 1.25L 51 65 David Allan Pressed leader - led over 1f out - headed and no extra inside final 110yds(op 7/2) 2026-05-07 Redcar 6f Good Cla 8/14 9/2C 0.75L 52 58 David Allan In touch with leaders - outpaced halfway - weakened from 2f out(tchd 4/1) 2026-04-20 Redcar 6f Good To F Cla 3/8 11/2 0.05L 52 50 David Allan Held up in midfield - headway over 1f out - went second inside final furlong - lost second final strides(op 9/2) 2025-10-14 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 6/8 20/1 1.75L 55 37 Duran Fentiman In rear - brief headway inside final furlong - never dangerous(op 16/1 tchd 22/1) 2025-09-17 Beverley 5f Soft Cla 8/12 40/1 1.00L — 48 Sean Kirrane Towards rear - never on terms(op 66/1) 2025-09-06 Thirsk 6f Good Cla 10/16 150/1 1.50L — 40 Sean Kirrane Midfield - dropped to rear halfway - soon no chance(op 100/1) 2025-08-23 Redcar 6f Good To F Cla 8/10 16/1 4.25L — 30 James Sullivan Never better than midfield(op 20/1) Comment Pressed leader - led over 1f out - headed and no extra inside final 110yds(op 7/2) Finishing result Position 2 SP 11/4F (3.750) Beaten (L) 1.25 Total beaten 1.25 OR after 51 In-running comment Pressed leader - led over 1f out - headed and no extra inside final 110yds(op 7/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3. SECRET TESTIMONY (GB) (#1 · Σ 59.0) 3yo G · Draw 4 Connections Jockey Zak Wheatley Trainer Declan Carroll Owner Sapphire Print Solutions Ltd Pedigree Sire Time Test (GB) Dam Sea Of Secrets (IRE) Damsire Sea The Stars Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 15:42 11.00 (Bet365) 16:42 12.00 (Bet365) 17:02 8.00 (Bet365) 18:20 7.50 (Bet365) 02:00 8.00 (Bet365) 03:30 8.50 (Bet365) 09:11 9.00 (Bet365) 09:26 8.50 (Bet365) 09:40 9.00 (Bet365) 09:53 8.50 (Bet365) 09:55 9.00 (Bet365) 10:01 8.50 (Bet365) 10:21 9.00 (Bet365) 10:27 8.50 (Bet365) 10:31 9.00 (Bet365) 10:46 8.50 (Bet365) 10:50 9.00 (Bet365) 11:23 8.50 (Bet365) 11:25 9.00 (Bet365) 11:31 8.50 (Bet365) 11:58 9.00 (Bet365) 12:02 8.50 (Bet365) 12:06 9.00 (Bet365) 12:16 8.50 (Bet365) 12:23 9.50 (Bet365) 12:29 9.00 (Bet365) 12:41 8.50 (Bet365) 13:35 9.00 (Bet365) 13:41 8.50 (Bet365) 14:57 8.00 (Bet365) 15:14 8.50 (Bet365) 15:16 8.00 (Bet365) 15:31 7.50 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 7.0/10 Joint-top on the official ratings and the only previous winner in the race. Form 4.0/10 Form 701-89 — won once but last two were well-beaten 8th and 9th. Connections 7.0/10 Declan Carroll striking at 18% last 14d (3/17) — significantly above average; apprentice Wheatley(3) takes 3lb off. Fitness 7.0/10 Just 11 days since last run — sharp. Trip 6.0/10 Has been tried at a variety of trips; 7f looks within range. Pace 5.0/10 Held-up style fits an even-pace race adequately. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 4 is fine over 7f at Redcar. Equipment 5.0/10 No equipment change today. Weight 6.0/10 Top weight 135lb but 3lb claim brings effective burden to 132lb. Value 6.0/10 Hot yard plus top OFR is a profile that often goes a touch under the radar at small tracks. Σ Summary 59.0/100 Strong OFR/yard combo and the only horse here who has actually won a race — a sound each-way profile. Verdict Each-way ELO Horse 1412.7 (7 runs, 1 wins, 14.3%) Jockey 1580.9 (1061 runs, 91 wins, 8.6%) Trainer 1596.8 (2645 runs, 265 wins, 10.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Redcar 73r 6w 8% A/E 0.82 (negative) Jockey × trainer 645r 64w 10% A/E 0.92 (fair) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Redcar 338r 31w 9% A/E 0.95 (fair) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 6 641r 86w 13% A/E 0.99 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 6 3r 1w 33% A/E 12.87 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 6 320r 34w 11% A/E 0.73 (negative) Past form (last 8 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Redcar 7f Good Cla 7/9 11/2 0.30L 59 65 Zak Wheatley Led - headed over 1f out - soon weakened(op 13/2) 2026-05-07 Southwell (AW 7f Standard Cla 9/11 25/1 2.25L 60 71 Zak Wheatley Prominent - slightly hampered over 5f out - outpaced over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 33/1 tchd 22/1) 2026-03-21 Newcastle (AW 1m Standard Cla 8/9 25/1 2.00L 60 49 Zak Wheatley Led - headed and weakened from over 1f out(op 20/1) 2025-11-06 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 1/10 50/1 won 56 53 Zak Wheatley Raced in second - led over 1f out - ridden and briefly headed final 110yds - just held on(op 66/1) 2025-10-14 Leicester 1m Good Cla 10/10 50/1 1.75L 57 23 Zak Wheatley Towards rear throughout (jockey said gelding lost action approaching 3f out)(op 40/1 tchd 66/1) 2025-09-15 Thirsk 7f Soft Cla 7/8 150/1 2.25L — 42 David Nolan Led narrowly - headed and prominent over 5f out - weakened over 1f out(tchd 250/1) 2025-08-27 Musselburgh 7f Good Cla 8/8 33/1 2.00L — 36 Zak Wheatley Ran green throughout - always behind(op 40/1and tchd 50/1) 2025-07-23 Catterick 7f Soft Cla 8/10 100/1 4.25L — 41 Zak Wheatley Led early - prominent - stumbled over path after 1f - lost position gradually from over 3f out(op 66/1) Comment Led - headed over 1f out - soon weakened(op 13/2) Finishing result Position 7 SP 11/2 (6.500) Beaten (L) 0.30 Total beaten 4.75 OR after 59 In-running comment Led - headed over 1f out - soon weakened(op 13/2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4. REALISTIC DREAM (IRE) (#3 · Σ 52.0) 3yo F · Draw 3 Connections Jockey Greg Fairley Trainer Iain Jardine Owner Gibson Denholm Cross Laurenson Pedigree Sire Elzaam (AUS) Dam Lady Carlina (GB) Damsire No Nay Never Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 15:42 6.00 (Bet365) 16:01 6.50 (Coral) 16:42 7.00 (Bet365) 17:02 8.00 (William Hill) 00:31 8.50 (William Hill) 03:30 9.00 (Midnite) 04:01 9.50 (Midnite) 09:11 13.00 (Coral) 09:55 12.00 (Bet365) 11:25 11.00 (Bet365) 12:35 10.00 (Bet365) 12:51 9.50 (Bet365) 13:55 9.00 (Bet365) 14:18 9.50 (Bet365) 14:31 9.00 (Bet365) 14:37 9.50 (Bet365) 15:22 10.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 6.0/10 OFR 57 is mid-field and RPR 65 ties second-best. Form 3.0/10 Form 80-965 — never finished better than 5th in five career outings. Connections 4.0/10 Jardine just 2/23 (9%) last 14d; jockey Fairley Elo 1570 with only 6% career strike. Fitness 7.0/10 15 days since last run — fresh enough. Trip 5.0/10 Elzaam stock cope with 7f but no proven course-and-distance form. Pace 5.0/10 No standout pace profile in a likely-muddling contest. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 3 is neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No equipment change. Weight 6.0/10 Carrying 133lb off OFR 57 is consistent with field profile. Value 5.0/10 RP namechecked which may shorten price — limited overlay scope. Σ Summary 52.0/100 Ratings tie him in but trainer/jockey signals are weak and form is barren — needs a step up to win. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1463.5 (7 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1570.2 (118 runs, 7 wins, 5.9%) Trainer 1566.5 (5261 runs, 577 wins, 11.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Redcar 128r 19w 15% A/E 1.38 (value) Jockey × trainer 30r 1w 3% A/E 0.41 (negative) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Redcar 168r 15w 9% A/E 0.82 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 6 613r 67w 11% A/E 0.87 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 6 1r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 6 73r 6w 8% A/E 0.64 (negative) Past form (last 8 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Redcar 7f Good Cla 9/9 10/1 10.00L 57 65 Greg Fairley Midfield - took keen hold early - weakened over 1f out(op 17/2 tchd 11/1) 2026-05-03 Hamilton 6f Good Cla 5/8 12/1 4.00L 60 47 Cara Tuke Ducked left start - towards rear throughout(op 7/1) 2026-04-29 Musselburgh 5f Good Cla 6/7 11/1 0.50L 60 52 Greg Fairley Ducked left start - in rear throughout(op 8/1) 2026-01-28 Dundalk (AW) 6f Standard — 9/13 66/1 1.00L 65 33 Nathan Crosse In touch with leaders - short of room after 1f - lost position over 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 50/1) 2025-12-10 Dundalk (AW) 6f Standard — 10/14 40/1 2.25L 68 40 Adam Browne-Souza Never better than midfield(op 33/1) 2025-10-08 Navan (IRE) 6f Yielding — 8/14 33/1 0.30L — 46 Andrew Slattery Never better than midfield 2025-09-30 Cork (IRE) 5f Good To Y — 4/7 50/1 1.50L — 68 Adam Browne-Souza Towards rear - ran green - kept on inside final furlong - not reach leaders 2025-09-23 Listowel (IRE 7f Heavy — 7/13 33/1 0.30L — 49 Ben Coen Midfield - headway over 2f out - no impression from over 1f out Comment Midfield - took keen hold early - weakened over 1f out(op 17/2 tchd 11/1) Finishing result Position 9 SP 10/1 (11.000) Beaten (L) 10.00 Total beaten 15.75 OR after 57 In-running comment Midfield - took keen hold early - weakened over 1f out(op 17/2 tchd 11/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5. TRULY SPECIAL (GB) (#6 · Σ 52.0) 3yo F · Draw 5 Connections Jockey Barry McHugh Trainer John Wainwright Owner K Nicholson Pedigree Sire Kameko (USA) Dam Pepper Lane (GB) Damsire Exceed And Excel Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 15:42 15.00 (Bet365) 16:42 17.00 (Bet365) 02:31 19.00 (Bet365) 04:01 17.00 (Bet365) 09:11 29.00 (Bet365) 09:26 31.00 (7Bet) 09:32 29.00 (Bet365) 09:46 31.00 (7Bet) 09:55 34.00 (William Hill) 10:38 41.00 (William Hill) 10:46 34.00 (Bet365) 11:23 29.00 (Bet365) 11:25 34.00 (Coral) 12:41 29.00 (Coral) 12:45 26.00 (Bet365) 15:31 23.00 (Bet365) 15:40 21.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 7.0/10 RPR 66 is second-best in the race, just 2lb behind the leader. Form 4.0/10 Form 5539-6 — placed once and a 6th on return; modest. Connections 3.0/10 Wainwright trainer Elo 1427, 0/4 last 14d — cold; McHugh competent but unflashy. Fitness 6.0/10 22 days since last run is well within the freshness window. Trip 5.0/10 Kameko stock often stay further; 7f at least within scope. Pace 5.0/10 No pace edge from running style. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 5 is neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear today. Weight 6.0/10 129lb off OFR 53 is within field norms. Value 5.0/10 RPR catches eyes but yard form puts a ceiling on punter confidence. Σ Summary 52.0/100 Has the raw ratings but no winning evidence and a cold yard limits expectations. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1467.9 (7 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1549.7 (3342 runs, 252 wins, 7.5%) Trainer 1426.7 (1101 runs, 51 wins, 4.6%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Redcar 465r 24w 5% A/E 0.56 (negative) Jockey × trainer 89r 7w 8% A/E 1.41 (value) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Redcar 387r 10w 3% A/E 0.52 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 6 129r 12w 9% A/E 0.82 (negative) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 6 82r 18w 22% A/E 1.48 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 6 2418r 286w 12% A/E 0.93 (fair) Past form (last 8 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Redcar 7f Good Cla 6/9 16/1 0.30L 53 66 Barry McHugh Took keen hold - midfield - no extra inside final furlong(op 20/1) 2026-04-26 Wetherby 1m Good To F Cla 6/8 28/1 1.50L 55 44 Daniel Tudhope Dwelt start - towards rear - weakened inside final furlong(op 25/1 tchd 33/1) 2025-11-06 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 9/10 18/1 1.75L 57 31 David Nolan Prominent - weakened over 1f out(op 16/1 tchd 20/1) 2025-10-14 Leicester 1m Good Cla 3/10 11/1 2.75L 58 55 Daniel Tudhope Took keen hold - led - disputed lead after 1f - headed over 1f out - no extra towards finish(op 12/1 tchd 10/1 and tchd 14/1) 2025-09-14 Musselburgh 1m Good To S Cla 5/8 4/1 2.75L 60 38 Mark Winn Prominent - weakened over 1f out 2025-08-24 Beverley 7½f Good To F Cla 5/13 20/1 0.75L — 56 Jason Hart Midfield - no impression(op 18/1 tchd 22/1) 2025-08-01 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 7/13 40/1 2.00L — 39 Mark Winn In touch with leaders - weakened over 1f out 2025-07-22 Wolverhampton 7f Standard Cla 8/11 20/1 0.20L — 49 Ben Robinson Slowly away - towards rear - some headway from over 1f out(op 22/1 tchd 25/1) Comment Took keen hold - midfield - no extra inside final furlong(op 20/1) Finishing result Position 6 SP 16/1 (17.000) Beaten (L) 0.30 Total beaten 4.50 OR after 53 In-running comment Took keen hold - midfield - no extra inside final furlong(op 20/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6. WALK ON WALK ON (IRE) (#5 · Σ 48.0) 3yo G · Draw 1 · b Connections Jockey Jamie Gormley Trainer Noel Wilson Owner D Farry Pedigree Sire U S Navy Flag (USA) Dam Walk On Bye (IRE) Damsire Danehill Dancer Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 15:42 11.00 (Bet365) 16:42 12.00 (Bet365) 17:02 13.00 (Bet365) 22:01 12.00 (Bet365) 22:22 11.00 (Bet365) 00:31 12.00 (Bet365) 02:00 11.00 (Bet365) 04:01 12.00 (Bet365) 09:11 13.00 (Bet365) 09:40 15.00 (Bet365) 09:53 13.00 (Bet365) 09:55 15.00 (Bet365) 10:21 13.00 (Bet365) 10:31 15.00 (Bet365) 10:46 13.00 (Bet365) 11:23 15.00 (Bet365) 12:23 13.00 (Bet365) 12:29 15.00 (Bet365) 12:45 13.00 (Bet365) 13:22 15.00 (Bet365) 13:24 13.00 (Bet365) 13:35 15.00 (Bet365) 14:45 13.00 (Bet365) 15:08 15.00 (Bet365) 15:22 13.00 (Bet365) 15:31 15.00 (Bet365) 15:33 13.00 (Bet365) 15:35 15.00 (Bet365) 15:40 13.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 OFR 55 / RPR 64 puts him in the middle of the pack. Form 3.0/10 Form 549-06 — last-of-six suggests he's at the bottom of his curve. Connections 3.0/10 Wilson trainer Elo 1355 (lowest in race) and just 1 runner in 14d. Fitness 6.0/10 18 days since last run — fresh enough. Trip 5.0/10 U S Navy Flag stock tend to want 6-7f. Pace 5.0/10 No defined pace edge. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 1 is fine; no strong bias either way. Equipment 5.0/10 Blinkers retained — already a factor, no fresh angle. Weight 6.0/10 131lb off OFR 55 unremarkable. Value 4.0/10 Difficult to make a value case with this connections profile. Σ Summary 48.0/100 Mark is workable but stable cold and last run was awful — best at bigger prices. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1464.3 (8 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1424.8 (1452 runs, 128 wins, 8.8%) Trainer 1355.4 (654 runs, 33 wins, 5.0%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Redcar 76r 8w 11% A/E 1.12 (value) Jockey × trainer 6r 1w 17% A/E 1.80 (value) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Redcar 154r 6w 4% A/E 0.56 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 6 242r 30w 12% A/E 0.94 (fair) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 6 26r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 6 2822r 273w 10% A/E 0.84 (negative) Past form (last 9 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Redcar 7f Good Cla 4/9 12/1 0.50L 55 64 Jamie Gormley Held up in midfield - kept on inside final furlong(tchd 11/1) 2026-04-30 Redcar 1m Good To F Cla 6/9 40/1 6.50L 57 35 Jamie Gormley Towards rear throughout(op 50/1) 2026-04-16 Ripon 1m Good To S Cla 10/11 28/1 3.25L 59 24 Jamie Gormley Midfield on inner - lost ground quickly over 2f out - dropped to rear over 1f out - eased final 110yds(op 40/1 tchd 25/1) 2025-09-30 Bath 5½f Good To F Cla 9/13 16/5F 0.75L 61 38 Benoit De La Sayet In touch with leaders - lost position over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 7/2 tchd 4/1) 2025-09-15 Thirsk 6f Soft Cla 4/11 3/1F 1.25L 62 57 Shane Gray Midfield against near rail - switched left and headway over 1f out - no extra inside final 110yds(op 11/2) 2025-08-28 Chelmsford (A 6f Standard Cla 5/8 8/1 0.30L 64 55 Benoit De La Sayet Dwelt start and carried right start - raced wide - took keen hold - midfield - no telling impression (jockey said colt hung left-handed)(op 10/1 tchd 15/2) 2025-07-28 Windsor 6f Good To F Cla 3/9 33/1 4.25L — 59 Tom Queally Led - headed over 1f out - soon lost second - no extra inside final furlong - just held third(op 25/1 tchd 22/1) 2025-06-30 Wolverhampton 7f Standard Cla 5/9 125/1 0.50L — 61 Darragh Keenan Prominent - went second over 1f out - soon no chance with winner - lost three places final 110yds(op 100/1) 2025-05-27 Leicester 6f Good Cla 10/13 150/1 0.75L — 52 Shane Gray Always behind(tchd 200/1) Comment Held up in midfield - kept on inside final furlong(tchd 11/1) Finishing result Position 4 SP 12/1 (13.000) Beaten (L) 0.50 Total beaten 2.75 OR after 55 In-running comment Held up in midfield - kept on inside final furlong(tchd 11/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7. ENDURING STORY (GB) (#9 · Σ 48.0) 3yo F · Draw 6 Connections Jockey James Sullivan Trainer Ruth Carr Owner The Princess Partnership Pedigree Sire Kameko (USA) Dam Big News (IRE) Damsire Dubawi Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 15:42 9.00 (Bet365) 16:01 10.00 (BetMGM) 17:02 11.00 (Bet365) 22:22 12.00 (Bet365) 04:01 13.00 (Midnite) 09:11 19.00 (Midnite) 10:07 21.00 (Midnite) 10:27 26.00 (Betfred) 10:44 29.00 (Midnite) 10:54 26.00 (Bet365) 11:02 29.00 (Midnite) 12:12 34.00 (Midnite) 12:23 29.00 (William Hill) 12:29 34.00 (Midnite) 13:22 36.00 (7Bet) 13:35 34.00 (Coral) 14:43 36.00 (7Bet) 15:16 34.00 (Bet365) 15:24 36.00 (7Bet) 15:33 41.00 (Bet365) 15:40 36.00 (7Bet) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 2.0/10 Lowest OFR (45) and lowest RPR (58) by clear margin. Form 3.0/10 Form 686 over three starts — no real encouragement. Connections 5.0/10 Carr trainer Elo 1674 is the highest in race and RTF 64 is strong, partly offset by Sullivan's 7% strike. Fitness 6.0/10 26-day break — fresh enough. Trip 5.0/10 Kameko stock often want further but 7f is at the lower end. Pace 5.0/10 No defined pace angle. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 6 is neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear today. Weight 7.0/10 121lb off OFR 45 — lightest in race, which is the only real positive. Value 4.0/10 Punters may overrate the yard angle — limited upside. Σ Summary 48.0/100 Big trainer signal but the horse itself has nothing on the form book to justify going close. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1412.1 (3 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1495.1 (6507 runs, 472 wins, 7.3%) Trainer 1674.1 (5018 runs, 476 wins, 9.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Redcar 591r 36w 6% A/E 0.83 (negative) Jockey × trainer 3817r 334w 9% A/E 0.86 (fair) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Redcar 456r 32w 7% A/E 0.72 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 6 129r 12w 9% A/E 0.82 (negative) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 6 no data Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 6 1601r 193w 12% A/E 0.95 (fair) Past form (last 4 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Redcar 7f Good Cla 5/9 33/1 1.50L 45 58 James Sullivan Dwelt start - in rear - switched sharply right over 1f out - ran on towards finish 2026-04-22 Catterick 7f Good Cla 6/6 150/1 2.25L — 42 James Sullivan In touch with leaders - dropped to last over 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 200/1) 2026-04-07 Southwell (AW 7f Standard Cla 8/8 125/1 4.25L — — James Sullivan Took keen hold - held up in midfield - weakened from 2f out(op 66/1) 2026-03-28 Southwell (AW 7f Standard Cla 6/6 40/1 14.00L — — James Sullivan Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - hung right and weakened from 3f out Comment Dwelt start - in rear - switched sharply right over 1f out - ran on towards finish Finishing result Position 5 SP 33/1 (34.000) Beaten (L) 1.50 Total beaten 4.25 OR after 45 In-running comment Dwelt start - in rear - switched sharply right over 1f out - ran on towards finish ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 8. MAYBE SOON (IRE) (#4 · Σ 47.0) 3yo F · Draw 8 Connections Jockey Andrew Elliott Trainer Tom Tate Owner T T Racing Pedigree Sire Supremacy (IRE) Dam Maybride (GB) Damsire Mayson Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 15:42 11.00 (Bet365) 16:42 10.00 (Betfred) 17:02 5.00 (Bet365) 02:31 5.50 (Bet365) 04:01 5.00 (Bet365) 09:11 5.50 (Unibet) 10:44 5.00 (William Hill) 13:41 4.50 (William Hill) 15:14 5.00 (Ladbrokes) 15:33 5.50 (Coral) 15:35 6.00 (Coral) 15:40 6.50 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 5.0/10 OFR 56 mid-field but RPR 64 below the leading group. Form 2.0/10 Form 4498 — clearly regressing across four starts. Connections 4.0/10 Tate yard 0/2 last 14d and only 9% career strike; Elliott jockey 5% career strike. Fitness 5.0/10 41 days since last run — neither fresh nor obviously needing it. Trip 5.0/10 Supremacy progeny generally suit 6-7f. Pace 5.0/10 No defined pace edge. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 8 is neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear today. Weight 6.0/10 132lb off OFR 56 is consistent with the field. Value 4.0/10 Punters tend to leave this profile alone — likely fair price but no edge. Σ Summary 47.0/100 Trajectory and yard form both negative — interest is mostly down to handicap mark. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1485.5 (4 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1527.4 (922 runs, 46 wins, 5.0%) Trainer 1595.7 (759 runs, 67 wins, 8.8%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Redcar 237r 17w 7% A/E 0.94 (fair) Jockey × trainer 97r 7w 7% A/E 0.94 (fair) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Redcar 140r 10w 7% A/E 0.71 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 6 38r 1w 3% A/E 0.26 (negative) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 6 7r 2w 29% A/E 3.01 (value) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 6 128r 11w 9% A/E 0.83 (negative) Past form (last 5 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Redcar 7f Good Cla 8/9 6/1 1.00L 56 64 Andrew Elliott Dwelt start - held up in midfield - outpaced when slightly hampered over 1f out - switched left and no impression inside final furlong(op 5/1) 2026-04-07 Southwell (AW 7f Standard Cla 8/9 28/1 1.75L 60 45 Andrew Elliott Slowly into stride - raced wide - in rear early - midfield after 2f - in touch with leaders 4f out - lost position from 3f out - in rear when not clear run 2f out - switched left and some headway over 1f out - no impression inside final furlong(op 22/1) 2026-03-19 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 9/11 125/1 0.30L — 34 Andrew Elliott Ducked left start - towards rear - hung left and no impression from over 2f out(op 100/1) 2026-02-04 Newcastle (AW 6f Standard Cla 4/10 12/1 1.75L — 58 Andrew Elliott Midfield - towards rear over 3f out - hung left but headway from over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 14/1 tchd 11/1) 2026-01-13 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 4/12 66/1 1.75L — 58 Andrew Elliott Midfield - ran on inside final furlong Comment Dwelt start - held up in midfield - outpaced when slightly hampered over 1f out - switched left and no impression inside final furlong(op 5/1) Finishing result Position 8 SP 6/1 (7.000) Beaten (L) 1.00 Total beaten 5.75 OR after 56 In-running comment Dwelt start - held up in midfield - outpaced when slightly hampered over 1f out - switched left and no impression inside final furlong(op 5/1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9. TWILIGHT DAWN (GB) (#8 · Σ 46.0) 3yo F · Draw 7 Connections Jockey Joanna Mason Trainer Simon Whitaker Owner Five Rise Partnership Pedigree Sire Twilight Son (GB) Dam Heartstring (GB) Damsire Slade Power Form / ratings Form string — Last run (days) — OFR — RPR – TS — Prices & value EV — Kelly (¼) 0.00% Best-odds movement 15:42 5.00 (Bet365) 16:01 5.50 (William Hill) 16:21 6.00 (Coral) 17:02 6.50 (Bet365) 02:31 7.00 (Bet365) 04:01 6.50 (Bet365) 09:11 4.50 (BetTom) 09:40 4.33 (Unibet) 09:55 4.00 (Bet365) 10:01 4.33 (Bet365) 12:06 4.00 (Bet365) 12:16 4.33 (Bet365) 12:31 4.00 (Bet365) 13:28 4.33 (Bet365) 14:12 4.50 (Coral) 15:16 5.00 (Coral) 15:22 4.50 (Coral) 15:35 4.33 (Unibet) 15:40 4.00 (Bet365) AI ratings (1-10 per dimension) Class 3.0/10 RPR 62 is second-lowest in the field. Form 3.0/10 Form 7907-5 — barely competitive. Connections 3.0/10 Whitaker trainer Elo 1400, 0/6 14d; Mason a 10% career rider. Fitness 6.0/10 23-day break — fresh enough. Trip 5.0/10 Twilight Son stock are sharp 6-7f types. Pace 5.0/10 No defined pace angle. Draw 6.0/10 Stall 7 is neutral. Equipment 5.0/10 No headgear today. Weight 6.0/10 126lb off OFR 50 — light enough relative to field. Value 4.0/10 Hard to argue she's underrated by punters. Σ Summary 46.0/100 Below par on most measurable signals — needs a personal best to win. Verdict Outsider ELO Horse 1422.3 (6 runs, 0 wins, 0.0%) Jockey 1597.7 (2964 runs, 311 wins, 10.5%) Trainer 1400.2 (490 runs, 27 wins, 5.5%) Pedigree & partner analytics Horse @ 7f no data Jockey @ 7f no data Jockey @ Redcar 137r 11w 8% A/E 0.78 (negative) Jockey × trainer 8r 3w 38% A/E 2.26 (value) Trainer @ 7f no data Trainer @ Redcar 43r 1w 2% A/E 0.42 (negative) Sire progeny @ 7f no data Sire progeny in Class 6 960r 83w 9% A/E 0.71 (negative) Dam progeny @ 7f no data Dam progeny in Class 6 3r 0w 0% A/E 0.00 (negative) Damsire grand @ 7f no data Damsire grand in Class 6 62r 6w 10% A/E 0.87 (fair) Past form (last 7 races) Date Course Dist Going Cl Pos SP Btn OR RPR Jockey 2026-05-18 Redcar 7f Good Cla 3/9 3/1 1.00L 50 62 Joanna Mason Midfield - kept on and went modest second inside final furlong 2026-04-25 Doncaster 7f Good To F Cla 5/12 40/1 1.00L 51 40 Rhys Elliott Never better than midfield(op 80/1) 2025-11-06 Newcastle (AW 7f Standard Cla 7/10 80/1 1.25L 54 39 Tom Eaves In touch with leaders - weakened over 1f out(op 50/1) 2025-09-04 Southwell (AW 6f Standard Cla 12/14 50/1 1.25L 56 32 David Allan Always behind(tchd 40/1) 2025-08-08 Haydock 7f Good Cla 9/10 150/1 0.20L — 45 David Allan Not clear run and switched left over 1f out - in rear throughout(tchd 200/1) 2025-07-23 Doncaster 7f Soft Cla 7/8 125/1 2.00L — 48 Tom Eaves In rear - never on terms(op 100/1 tchd 150/1) 2025-06-19 Ripon 6f Good Cla 6/6 66/1 9.50L — 2 Andrea Pinna Always behind - detached before halfway - tailed off(op 40/1) Comment Midfield - kept on and went modest second inside final furlong Finishing result Position 3 SP 3/1 (4.000) Beaten (L) 1.00 Total beaten 2.25 OR after 50 In-running comment Midfield - kept on and went modest second inside final furlong ============================================================================== HEAD-TO-HEAD (3 past meetings between today's runners) ============================================================================== 2026-05-18 · Redcar · 7f · Class 6 · Good racingtv.com Handicap (Div II) 1 Black Rock Beauty (IRE) won SP 17/2 2 Long Shot (GB) 1.25L SP 11/4F 3 Twilight Dawn (GB) 1.00L SP 3/1 4 Walk On Walk On (IRE) 0.50L SP 12/1 5 Enduring Story (GB) 1.50L SP 33/1 6 Truly Special (GB) 0.30L SP 16/1 7 Secret Testimony (GB) 0.30L SP 11/2 8 Maybe Soon (IRE) 1.00L SP 6/1 9 Realistic Dream (IRE) 10.00L SP 10/1 2025-11-06 · Newcastle (AW) · 7f · Class 6 · Standard Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Nursery Handicap 1 Secret Testimony (GB) won SP 50/1 7 Twilight Dawn (GB) 1.25L SP 80/1 9 Truly Special (GB) 1.75L SP 18/1 2025-10-14 · Leicester · 1m · Class 6 · Good Every Race Live On Racing TV Nursery Handicap 3 Truly Special (GB) 2.75L SP 11/1 10 Secret Testimony (GB) 1.75L SP 50/1 ============================================================================== AI RACE VERDICT ============================================================================== Pace scenario: No obvious front-runner in the field — likely a steady-to-moderate gallop, which can favour Truly Special and Long Shot drawn higher coming late, while low draws are not at any real bias around Redcar 7f. Narrative: Sub-60 0-60 handicap with all nine on similar marks (OFR 45-59) and a narrow RPR spread of just 10lb. Black Rock Beauty tops the RPR list and gets first-time cheekpieces back from a break for the strong Fahey yard, making her the marginal pick. Secret Testimony has top OFR plus a hot Carroll yard (18% 14d) and an apprentice claim; Long Shot has by far the best connections (Easterby/Allan) but a wide draw 9 in a 7f race. Race shape looks muddling with several hold-up types. Recommended: Black Rock Beauty Top RPR (68) in the field, drops back into Class 6 off a competitive mark, first-time cheekpieces FOR after 89-day break — classic Fahey re-introduction angle. Alternative: Secret Testimony Top weight on OFR, has the only career win in the field, hot Declan Carroll yard (18% strike last 14 days) and a 3lb claim off her back. ============================================================================== Generated 2026-05-19 13:38 UTC · HorseRacingValue.com · race rac_11970725